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Gross fixed investment is dragged by construction investment

Julio Ruiz


Gross Fixed Investment (GFI) grew 3.3% yoy in September (from 5.8% in August), below our forecast of 4.9% and market consensus of 5.5% (as per Bloomberg). Adjusting the figures for working days, GFI grew at a faster pace of 3.8%, taking the 3Q22 annual rate to 3.7% (from 6.5% in 2Q22). According to the calendar-adjusted breakdown, quarterly annual growth in construction investment stood at a weak -4.3% in 3Q22 (from 1.8% in 2Q22), while machinery & equipment investment stood at 14.3% (from 13.0%).

GFI momentum was soft in 3Q22. Using seasonally adjusted figures, GFI fell by 0.9% mom in September, taking the quarter-over-quarter annualized growth rate (qoq/saar) to 0.1% in 3Q22 (down from 6.3% in 2Q22). Looking at the breakdown, construction investment qoq/saar stood at -7.3% in 3Q22 (from -7.5% in 2Q22), while machinery & equipment investment came in at 8.4% (from 22.6%).

Private consumption expanded at a softer pace in September, although still solid. The monthly proxy for private consumption expanded by 5.9% yoy in September (using calendar-adjusted figures), with the 3Q22 annual growth rate at 6.3% (from 7.1% in 2Q22). At the margin, private consumption expanded 0.4% mom/sa (from 0.6% in August), taking the qoq/saar figure to 1.9% in 3Q22 (from 4.2% in 2Q22).

Internal demand is likely to soften during the last quarter of the year and through 2023 amid a deteriorated global scenario.

Julio Ruiz