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Manufacturing output was the main drag to sequential GDP growth.

Julio Ruiz


GDP in 4Q22 grew 3.6% yoy, in line with our forecast but slightly above both market consensus (as per Bloomberg) and flash estimate published by the Statistics Institute (INEGI) of 3.5%. As a result, annual growth reached 3.1% in 2022. Using calendar-adjusted figures (published by INEGI), GDP grew at the same pace, with industrial production up 3.2% yoy in 4Q22 (down from 3.5% in 3Q22). Manufacturing sector expanded 4.2% (from 7.3%), while construction output rebounded to 2.6% (from -3.1%). Services sector slowed to 3.5% yoy in 4Q22 (from 4.7% in 3Q22).

At the margin, activity expansion was softer (but still decent) in 4Q22, relative to the previous three quarters and consistent with a weaker external scenario. GDP grew 0.5% qoq/sa in 4Q22, from an expansion of around 1% in each of the first three quarters of 2022. Manufacturing sector was the main drag to 4Q22 activity expansion, falling by 0.6% qoq/sa (from 1.9% in 3Q22), while services sector expanded at a soft 0.1% (from 1.0%). On the other hand, construction output posted a solid growth of 2.2% qoq/sa in 4Q22 (from -0.5% in 3Q22).

We expect activity to slow this year, to 1.3%, dragged down by a soft expansion of the U.S. economy and a tighter monetary policy stance.

Julio Ruiz