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Private and private demand curbed domestic demand growth

Julio Ruiz


Aggregate supply and demand grew 6.4% yoy in 3Q22 (from 5.0% in 2Q22), both above our forecast of 5.3% and market expectations of 5.5% (as per Bloomberg). Aggregate supply and demand grew at the same pace using calendar adjusted figures, with imports of goods and services and GDP growth at 11.5% (from 12.1%) and 4.3% (from 2.4%), respectively. Domestic demand grew 5.2% yoy in 3Q22 (from 5.5% in 2Q22), while exports of goods and services grew 11.6% (from 9.4%). Within domestic demand, final private demand growth stood at 6.0% (from 6.6%), with private consumption and private gross fixed investment at 6.4% (from 6.6%) and 4.6% (from 7.0%), respectively. In turn, final public demand growth stood at 1.7% (from 0.2%), with public gross fixed investment falling 1.4% (from 3.0%).

At the margin, domestic demand expansion moderated in 3Q22. Using seasonally adjusted figures, domestic demand expanded 0.5% qoq (down from 1.3% in 2Q22 and 2.3% in 1Q22), dragged by both private (0.3%, from 1.1%) and public (0.5%, from 1.6%) demand. Within private demand, consumption slowed to 0.4% qoq in 3Q22 (from 1.0% in 2Q22), while private gross fixed investment stood at 0.3% (from 1.7%). Public demand was dragged by public gross fixed investment, which stood at a weak -1.0% qoq in 3Q22 (from 2.8% in 2Q22).

A worse external scenario is likely to curb activity expansion in the last quarter of this year and in 2023. We expect GDP growth of 2.9% and 1.3% for 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Julio Ruiz