ARGENTINA – Strong rebound of activity in June

We recently revised our GDP growth forecast for 2021 up to 7.0%

Juan Carlos Barboza & Diego Ciongo

19/08/2021


The EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy) grew 2.5% mom/sa in June – beating the Bloomberg market consensus of 2% following a significant easing of mobility restrictions – but fell by 1.6% qoq/sa (non-annualized) in 2Q21, down from an expansion of 2.5% qoq/sa in 1Q21. Activity grew 10.8% yoy in June – favored by the positive base effect of the strict lockdowns in the same period a year earlier – and 17.3% in the quarter (up from 2.5% in 1Q21).



Mixed sequential results in 2Q21. Construction decreased by 13.3% qoq/saar (from 23.6% in 1Q21) and primary activities fell by 10.4% qoq/saar in 2Q21 (down from 9.7% in the previous quarter). On a positive note, Manufacturing output increased by 15.2% qoq/saar (from 28.5% in 1Q21) and the Service sector increased by 8.6% qoq/saar (from 21.8% in 1Q21). On a year-over-year basis, all sectors expanded due to base effects, with the exception of primary activities, affected by unfavorable weather conditions. 



We recently revised our GDP growth forecast for 2021 up to 7.0% (from -9.9% in 2020), reflecting a positive statistical carry-over of 6.3% for the remainder of the year. 

Juan Carlos Barboza
Diego Ciongo