Juan Carlos Barboza & Diego Ciongo
24/01/2023
Activity fell by 0.7% mom/sa in November, following a downwardly revised drop of 0.5% in October. The EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy) therefore declined by 0.8% qoq/saar in November, from a 4.5% qoq/saar gain in October. Activity expanded by 2.6% yoy in November (in line with our call but below the Bloomberg market estimate of 3.2% ) and 4.0% yoy in the quarter ended in that month.
Year-over-year growth decelerated in the quarter ended in November. Services registered a 5.8% yoy gain in the period (from 7.7% in 3Q22), while construction output expanded by 4.6% yoy (from 7.3% in 3Q22), followed by Manufacturing at 3.3% yoy (from 6.0% previously). Primary Activities increased by 3.3% yoy in the quarter ended in November, from 4.8% in 3Q22.
All sectors posted negative growth at the margin, except Primaries Activities, according to our seasonal adjustment. Primary Activities increased by 6.7% qoq/saar in November, from a gain of 35.0% qoq/saar in 3Q22. The Service sector fell by 5.7% qoq/saar (from a gain of 9.5% qoq/saar in September), while the Manufacturing sector decreased by 7.8% qoq/saar (down from a drop of 4.5% in September). Construction fell by 7.2% qoq/saar in November, from a drop of 2.4% in 3Q22.
For 2023, we expect activity to contract by 1.5%, following an expansion of 5.5% in 2022, affected by the tighter import controls.
Juan Carlos Barboza
Diego Ciongo