ARGENTINA – Activity continued to rebound in August

Recently, we raised our GDP forecast to 7.8% (vs. 7%), due to weaker mobility restrictions and a quicker vaccination.

Juan Barboza & Diego Ciongo

21/10/2021


The EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy) grew 12.8% yoy in July, reflecting the significant easing of mobility restrictions. Activity grew 12.1% yoy in the quarter ended in August, down from 17.9% in 2Q21. On a sequential basis, the EMAE grew a solid 1.1% mom in August and 1.8% qoq/sa (non-annualized) in the quarter ended in that month, up from a contraction of 1.4% qoq/sa in 2Q21.  As a result, activity surpassed the pre-pandemic level of February 2020.



Mixed sequential results in the quarter ended in August, according to our seasonal adjustment. On a positive note, the Service sector increased by 27.8% qoq/saar (from 15.4% in 2Q21), while Primary activities grew 13.7% in the period (up from -11.2% in 2Q21).  However, Manufacturing output decreased by 3.0% qoq/saar (from 12.3% growth in the quarter ended in June). Construction fell by 9.7% qoq/saar, vs. 0.9% in 2Q21.

All sectors posted year-over-year gains in the quarter ended in August, due to base effects. The Service sector was the most dynamic, increasing by 33.5% (from 41.1% in 2Q21), followed by Construction, which posted a gain of 29.1% yoy (from 84.2% in 2Q21). Manufacturing output increased by 14.7% yoy (from 32.4% in 2Q21) and Primary activities rose by 2.5% in the quarter (up from -0.7% in 2Q21).



We recently raised our GDP growth forecast to 7.8% GDP (from 7%), due to a significant easing of mobility restrictions and a quicker rollout of vaccinations. 

Juan Carlos Barboza
Diego Ciongo