We now see downside risks to our -1.5% GDP growth forecast, due to the negative carry-over and the ongoing drought amid tighter import controls.
Juan Carlos Barboza & Diego Ciongo
23/02/2023
Activity fell by 1.0% mom/sa in December, marking a fourth consecutive decline. The EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy) declined by 6.8% qoq/saar in 4Q22, from a gain of 6.5% qoq/saar in 3Q22. Activity contracted by 1.2% yoy in December, below the Bloomberg market estimate of a 0.9% expansion. Thus activity increased by 5.2% yoy in 2022, but left a negative statistical carry-over of 0.5% for this year.
Across sectors annual growth fell in 4Q22. Services registered a 4.6% yoy gain in the period (from 7.7% in 3Q22), while construction output expanded by 1.6% yoy (from 7.3% in 3Q22), followed by Manufacturing at 1.3% yoy (from 6.0% previously). Primary Activities decreased by 1.6% yoy in the quarter, from 4.8% in 3Q22, affected by a poor wheat harvest due to drought.
All sectors posted negative growth at the margin, according to our seasonal adjustment. Primary Activities decreased by 14.0% qoq/saar in December, from a gain of 40.3% qoq/saar in 3Q22. The Service sector fell by 2.6% qoq/saar (from a gain of 2.3% qoq/saar in September), while the Manufacturing sector decreased by 9.4% qoq/saar (from a drop of 5.4% in September). Construction plummeted by 15.2% qoq/saar in December, from a drop of 1.0% in 3Q22.
We now see downside risks to our -1.5% GDP growth forecast, due to the negative carry-over and the ongoing drought amid tighter import controls.
Juan Carlos Barboza
Diego Ciongo