Juan Carlos Barboza & Diego Ciongo
21/12/2022
Activity fell by 0.3% mom/sa in October, following a 0.2% decline in September. Thus, the EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy) rose 4.9% qoq/saar in October, from 7.0% qoq/saar in September. On a year-over-year basis, activity expanded 4.5% yoy in October (in line with our call of 4.4%) and 5.2% in the quarter ended in that month (5.7% in 3Q22).
All sectors posted year-over-year growth in the quarter ended in October, led by Service Activities. Services registered a 7.1% yoy gain in the period (from 7.7% in 3Q22), while construction output expanded by 6.3% yoy (from 7.3% in 3Q22), followed by Manufacturing at 5.4% yoy (from 6.0% previously). Primary Activities increased by 5.8% yoy in the quarter ended in October, from 4.8% in 3Q22.
We recently revised our GDP growth forecast upward for 2022, to 5.5% from 4.2% in the previous scenario. For 2023, we expect activity to contract by 1.5% (from -2.0% in our previous scenario), now helped by a higher carryover from 2022, but curbed by tighter import controls introduced in late September.
Juan Carlos Barboza
Diego Ciongo