A gradual narrowing of the external imbalance
17/03/2023
Imports continue to fall sequentially. Total imports (FOB) during the first month of the year were dragged by transportation equipment (-36.6% yoy) and intermediate agricultural goods (-20.3% yoy). In the quarter ending in January, imports contracted 7.3% yoy (-2.9% in 4Q22 and +32% in 3Q22). Imports excluding fuels and transportation equipment fell 12% yoy ( 8.5% contraction in 4Q; +22% in 3Q22). At the margin, we estimate that imports fell 43.4% qoq/saar, similar to the drop registered in 4Q22 (+3.0% in 3Q22).
The commodity drag continues to hinder exports. Exports remained weak with a 2.8% yoy decline (1.0% down in December). Exports excluding traditional goods (oil, coal, coffee, and ferronickel), accounting for the 38.4% of the total, expanded 3.0% yoy (-2.1% in December). The oil export drag persisted (-19.2% yoy, -6.1% from December) with a decline in both prices and volumes. The slowing oil exports were partially compensated by double-digit growth of coal exports (boosted by prices). In the quarter ending January, export growth moderated to 3.2% yoy (from 7.4% in 4Q22 and 41.9% in 3Q22). At the margin, exports contracted 16.6% qoq/saar (39.6% decline in 4Q22; 25.6% down in 3Q22), dragged by oil but countered by coal exports.
We expect a CAD of 4.4% of GDP for 2023 (6.2% in 2022). The expected slowdown of domestic demand and COP weakness would support a gradual CAD moderation this year.
Vittorio Peretti
Carolina Monzón
Imports continue to fall sequentially. Total imports (FOB) during the first month of the year were dragged by transportation equipment (-36.6% yoy) and intermediate agricultural goods (-20.3% yoy). In the quarter ending in January, imports contracted 7.3% yoy (-2.9% in 4Q22 and +32% in 3Q22). Imports excluding fuels and transportation equipment fell 12% yoy ( 8.5% contraction in 4Q; +22% in 3Q22). At the margin, we estimate that imports fell 43.4% qoq/saar, similar to the drop registered in 4Q22 (+3.0% in 3Q22).
The commodity drag continues to hinder exports. Exports remained weak with a 2.8% yoy decline (1.0% down in December). Exports excluding traditional goods (oil, coal, coffee, and ferronickel), accounting for the 38.4% of the total, expanded 3.0% yoy (-2.1% in December). The oil export drag persisted (-19.2% yoy, -6.1% from December) with a decline in both prices and volumes. The slowing oil exports were partially compensated by double-digit growth of coal exports (boosted by prices). In the quarter ending January, export growth moderated to 3.2% yoy (from 7.4% in 4Q22 and 41.9% in 3Q22). At the margin, exports contracted 16.6% qoq/saar (39.6% decline in 4Q22; 25.6% down in 3Q22), dragged by oil but countered by coal exports.
We expect a CAD of 4.4% of GDP for 2023 (6.2% in 2022). The expected slowdown of domestic demand and COP weakness would support a gradual CAD moderation this year.
Vittorio Peretti
Carolina Monzón