GDP fell in 4Q22, affected by tighter import controls. Output decreased by 1.5% qoq/sa, offsetting a downwardly revised expansion of 1.4% qoq/sa in the previous quarter. On a year-over-year basis, GDP increased by 1.9% in 4Q22, from a gain of 5.9% in 3Q22. Thus, GDP grew by 5.2% in 2022, boosted by the expansionary fiscal policies in the first half of that year.
Final domestic demand – led by investment and private consumption – dropped by 2.5% qoq/sa in 4Q22, from +0.1% in the previous quarter. Fixed investment decreased by 7.2% in the quarter followed by a contraction in private consumption of 1.5%. Public consumption slipped 0.3%. On an annual basis, domestic demand (excluding inventories) rose by 3.0% yoy, reflecting a 5.1% yoy increase in private consumption and a modest 0.1% gain in gross fixed investment. On the other hand, public consumption declined by 2.1%. Regarding external demand, exports increased by 8.6% yoy, while imports rose by 1.0% yoy.
We recently revised our GDP forecast to -3.0% for 2023, from -1.5% before. The severity of the drought reflected in the latest updates on grain production suggests a concerning performance for the sector.
Juan Carlos Barboza