Activity increased by 0.3% mom/sa in January, after four consecutive months of decline. The EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy) declined by 7.0% qoq/saar, from a loss of 5.9% qoq/saar in 4Q22. Activity increased by 2.9% yoy in January, above the Bloomberg market estimate of a 0.2% expansion.
Primary activities affected by the drought. Primary activities decreased by 3.6% yoy in the quarter ended in January, from -1.6% in 4Q22, affected by a poor wheat harvest. The rest of the sectors expanded in the quarter. Services registered a 3.8% yoy gain in the period (from 4.6% in 4Q22), while Manufacturing expanded by 2.1% yoy (from 1.3% in 4Q22), followed by Construction at 2.0% yoy (from 1.6% previously).
All sectors posted negative growth in the quarter ended in January, according to our seasonal adjustment. Primary activities decreased by 18.3% qoq/saar in January, from a loss of 12.7% qoq/saar in 4Q22. The Service sector fell by 8.0% qoq/saar (from a similar loss of 8.0% qoq/saar in December), while the Manufacturing sector decreased by 6.2% qoq/saar (from a drop of 9.2% in 4Q22). Construction decreased by 9.4% qoq/saar in January, from a drop of 13.2% in 4Q22.
We forecast GDP -3.0% for 2023, with risks tilted downward due to a worse-than- expected drought in the agriculture sector.
Juan Carlos Barboza