Itaú BBA - Scenario Review - Chile
  • Shock therapy  

    The added monetary and fiscal stimulus measures would support some recovery next year

  • ¿Otro recorte de 50 pb en septiembre?  

    Esperamos un recorte de 25 pb en septiembre, pero la probabilidad de un mayor recorte ha aumentado dado el reciente escalamiento en la disputa comercial

  • Another 50-bp cut in September?  

    We expect a 25-bp rate cut in the September meeting, but the likelihood of a larger cut has increased following the recent escalation in global trade tensions.

  • Las perspectivas para la economía siguen siendo débiles  

    El impulso para la actividad no persistiría dado el pesimismo privado, la debilidad del mercado laboral y la consolidación de la desaceleración global.

  • Outlook for the economy still weak  

    Momentum gains are unlikely to persist as private sentiment slumps, the labor market weakens and the global slowdown consolidates.

  • An insurance move  

    The effects of an unresolved trade war on Chile will lead to further interest rate cuts

  • Las tensiones comerciales aplazan la recuperación  

    Baja inflación, débil actividad, la postura expansionista de la Fed y menor crecimiento global sugieren no hay necesidad de retirar el estímulo monetario.

  • Trade tensions delay recovery  

    Low inflation, weakening activity, the Fed’s looser policy stance and lower global growth suggest that there is no need to remove stimulus in the near term.

  • Aplazando la normalización  

    Factores internacionales y domésticos dan espacio para mantener el estímulo monetario por más tiempo.

  • Postponing normalization  

    International and domestic factors provide room to retain monetary stimulus for longer

  • Inflación baja por más tiempo  

    Incertidumbre sobre la dinámica de la inflación y riesgos externos aún elevados llevarán al banco central a ser cauteloso

  • Low inflation for longer  

    Short-term uncertainty over inflation dynamics and still elevated external risks support a more cautious central bank

  • Un banco central más paciente  

    Revisamos nuestra proyección de crecimiento 3,2% (desde 3,5%) en parte por la sorpresa a la baja en la actividad a fin de 2018 y las incertidumbres globales.

  • A more patient central bank  

    We revised our growth forecast to 3.2% for this year (from 3.5%), due in part to uncertainty over global trade negotiations and weak data at the end of 2018

  • Ciclo gradual de alza de las tasas de interés continua  

    La consolidación de la recuperación de la actividad continúa, pero persisten vientos en contra.

  • Gradual hiking cycle to continue  

    The consolidation of the activity recovery continues, but there are still headwinds

  • Reiterando gradualidad en el ciclo de ajuste monetario  

    Una caída de la inflación en los próximos meses y el hecho de que la recuperación económica no está consolidada, no damos por hecho un alza en enero

  • Confirming a gradual monetary policy normalization cycle  

    Dipping inflation in the coming months and unconsolidated economic recovery means a hike in January not a given.

  • Inicio de un ciclo gradual de alzas de tasa  

    Dadas señales mixtas para la actividad e inflación, un ciclo de normalización gradual parece prudente

  • The start of a gradual hiking cycle  

    Amid mixed activity and inflation signs, gradual hiking would be prudent

  • Preparando la primera alza  

    El ciclo de ajuste monetario sería gradual, dado el mercado laboral aún débil y la baja inflación subyacente

  • Preparing for liftoff  

    Tightening cycle will be gradual, particularly given the still-loose labor market and low underlying inflation

  • La primera reforma  

    El proyecto de reforma tributaria enfrentaría un arduo camino en el congreso

  • The first reform  

    The proposed tax reform will face a tough passage in congress

  • La recuperación continúa  

    Pese al aún favorable escenario, tensiones comerciales al alza podrían impactar al cobre y limitar la capacidad de crecimiento.

  • The recovery continues  

    Despite the favorable outlook, rising trade tensions could hamper copper prices and restrict the growth recovery.

  • Alzas de tasas en el horizonte  

    El robusto comienzo del año supone un sesgo al alza para nuestra proyección de crecimiento.

  • Rate hikes on the horizon  

    The strong start to the year puts an upside bias to the activity outlook

  • Brillando pese a los nubarrones globales  

    La inversión se está beneficiando de la mejora en sentimiento y mayores precios del cobre.

  • Looking bright amid darkening global clouds  

    Investment is benefitting from improved sentiment and higher copper prices

  • La recuperación se consolida  

    Con una recuperación generalizada y baja inflación, no hay apuro por subir tasas.

  • Recovery consolidates  

    With a broad-based activity recovery and still-low inflation, there is no rush for rate hikes

  • Mirando a los factores globales  

    Mejores condiciones domésticas significan que los principales riesgos para la recuperación vienen de fuera.

  • Looking at global factors  

    With improved domestic conditions, the main risks to the expected recovery come from abroad.

  • Revisión de Escenario – Ganando impulso  

    Ahora esperamos un crecimiento del PIB de 3,6% este año, y los riesgos están inclinados al alza

  • Gaining momentum  

    We now expect GDP growth of 3.6% this year, with risks tilted to the upside

  • Economía con viento en popa  

    Mayor crecimiento global y precio del cobre, recuperación del sentimiento privado y el estímulo monetario sostendrían la recuperación.

  • Tailwinds begin to help  

    Stronger global growth, high copper prices, recovering private sentiment and expansionary monetary policy will boost a recovery in activity

  • Dando vuelta a la página  

    Hemos mejorado nuestra proyección de crecimiento gracias a mejores condiciones externas y domésticas.

  • Turning the page  

    We have improved our growth outlook on more favorable external and domestic conditions.

  • Resuming the tightening cycle  

    Higher-than-expected inflation is putting pressure on the Central Bank

  • Discusión sobre el ciclo de flexibilización aún abierta  

    La política monetaria dependerá de inflación volátil.

  • ¿Sin recortes adicionales en la tasa de interés?  

    El BCCh contrapesará mejor actividad con baja inflación al evaluar la necesidad de mayor estímulo monetario.

  • No further rate cuts  

    Recovery gains traction

  • Persiste el crecimiento lento  

    Actividad débil y baja inflación dan espacio para estímulo monetario adicional.

  • Sluggish growth persists  

    With weak activity and low inflation, the upcoming Inflation Report would point to more easing.

  • More easing ahead  

    Weak growth and a stable currency have led to subdued inflationary pressures.

  • Waiting for a glimmer of hope  

    Weak activity will likely show some improvement through this year as the mining drag subsides.

  • Fin del ciclo de flexibilización, a pesar de la debilidad económica  

    El gasto público previno una recesión técnica en 1T17, y una recuperación significativa no es evidente.

  • Ending the easing cycle, despite economic weakness  

    Government expenditure prevented a technical recession in 1Q17, and a meaningful recovery remains elusive.

  • Clarificando el apetito por recortes de tasa  

    Seguimos esperando un nuevo recorte, a 2,5%, antes de fines del 2T17.

  • Clarifying the appetite for easing  

    The central bank would implement another 25bps rate cut before the end of 2Q17.

  • Banco Central adelanta recorte de tasas  

    El ciclo completo de recortes llevaría a la TPM a 2,5% antes de fin de año.

  • A cautious central bank  

    We still expect a 100-bp easing cycle, taking the policy rate to 2.5% by yearend

  • Ciclo de flexibilización bajo la lupa  

    Un año difícil requeriría mayor estímulo monetario.

  • Easing cycle under the microscope  

    A treacherous year will call for more policy support.

  • Más recortes en el horizonte  

    Los recortes de la TPM continuarían en medio de débil actividad.

  • No option but to cut  

    Monetary loosening would continue amid elusive growth.

  • Monetary easing about to begin  

    We expect a 100bps loosening cycle this year.

  • About to cut  

    Low growth and disinflation will lead to rate cuts beginning in January.

  • Espacio para un mayor estímulo monetario  

    La desaceleración más rápida de la inflación gatillaría recortes de tasa el próximo año.

  • Scope for extra monetary easing  

    Rate cuts next year would come amid a faster disinflationary process.

  • Less fiscal support, more monetary stimulus  

    We now expect two 25-basis points rate cuts in 1Q16 amid faster disinflation and weak growth.

  • Oficialmente sin sesgo  

    Pese a la débil actividad, se requiere desinflación más marcada para gatillar recortes de la TPM en 2017.

  • Officially Neutral  

    Despite weak growth, faster disinflation is needed to trigger rate cuts in 2017.

  • Revisión de Escenario – Chile: Acercándose a una postura neutra  

    Débiles perspectivas para la actividad y menor inflación resultarían en un sesgo expansivo de la política monetaria.

  • Nearing a neutral stance  

    A bleak outlook for growth and disinflation could lead to a looser monetary stance next year.

  • Activity continues to disappoint  

    We now expect GDP growth of 1.5% this year, below the 2.1% rate from last year.

  • No recovery yet  

    Low copper prices, less fiscal support and pessimistic private-sector sentiment are weightening on activity.

  • The debate on labor reform goes to the justice  

    Low commodity prices, less fiscal support and low confidence will continue to limit a recovery.

  • Losing Momentum  

    Weak growth, a stronger currency and falling inflation confirm our view of no rate hikes.

  • Tighter fiscal policy, looser monetary policy stance  

    Low copper prices limit the room for fiscal policy and weigh growth down.

  • Starting the year on the back foot  

    We reduced our 2016 growth forecast to 2.0%.

  • Growth to remain low for another year  

    A less-intense depreciation and a sluggish economy would help to bring inflation down.

  • Details of constitutional reform unveiled  

    The entire process will extend into the next administration, easing political tensions.

  • Rate hikes around the corner  

    Partial withdrawal of monetary stimulus amid a weaker economic recovery.

  • Latam in Depth - CHILE: Life with lower copper prices  

    The economy remained weak during 2Q15, and lower copper prices have dampened the expectations for a significant recovery

  • Lower copper prices weigh on the economy  

    We have reduced our 2016 forecast to 3.0% (from 3.2%).

  • A further deterioration in the growth-inflation trade-off  

    Amid higher-than-expected inflation and lower-than-expected growth, we continue to anticipate unchanged policy rates both this year and in 2016.

  • Expectations weigh on activity  

    We have reduced our growth forecasts to 2.5% from 2.8% for this year and to 3.4% from 3.5% in 2016.

  • Political Noise  

    President Michelle Bachelet announced that the government will start a constitutional reform process in September.

  • A more cautious Central Bank  

    As a response to the worsened inflation outlook, the Central Bank introduced a tightening bias in the first Monetary Policy Report of the year.

  • A turning point?  

    We have revised our GDP growth-rate and inflation forecasts for 2015 to 2.8% and 3.0%, respectively.

  • Reforms advance  

    the December indicators came in significantly better than expected.

  • Inflation Hits the Brakes  

    Industry continues to perform poorly.

  • Oil prices speed up the external adjustment  

    Chile’s 3Q14 GDP grew 0.8% from the previous year

  • The Easing Cycle Ends  

    Chile’s IMACEC (monthly proxy for GDP) fell 0.2% between August and September,

  • One Final Cut to Come  

    We expect a modest 0.5% year-over-year increase in August’s IMACEC (monthly proxy for GDP).

  • The Government’s Grace Period Is Over  

    Chile’s economy weakened further in 2Q14.

  • Weaker Growth, Lower Interest Rates  

    The IMACEC (monthly proxy for GDP) contracted by 0.8% from May to June

  • Monetary Policy Board Is Split on Rate-Cut Timing  

    The IMACEC (monthly proxy for GDP) increased by 0.6% from April to May

  • Consumption Following the Footsteps of Investment  

    The economy once again grew at a below-trend pace in 1Q14.

  • The Easing Cycle Will Likely Continue  

    The Chilean economy grew at a below-potential rate in 1Q14.

  • First Step in the Government Reform Program  

    Investment led the deceleration in 4Q13.

  • A Sharper Deceleration and Further Rate Cuts  

    Chile’s economic activity has continued to slow, led by investments.

  • An Easing Bias Amid Higher Volatility  

    Chile’s economy slowed substantially during the last quarter of 2013, bringing growth for the full year to 4.0%.

  • Investment-Led Slowdown  

    We maintain our GDP estimate at 4.2% for 2013, but we increased our 2014 forecast to 4.2% (from 4.0%).

  • Waiting for the Run-Off  

    Chile’s GDP was up 4.7% year over year during 3Q13, following 4.0% growth the previous quarter.

  • Easing Cycle to Continue  

    The Chilean peso has weakened, led by the earlier-than-expected start of the easing cycle.

  • Consumption Continues to Post Rapid Growth  

    We expect Chile’s GDP to grow 4.2% in 2013 and 4.4% in 2014.

  • Not So Sluggish After All  

    Chile’s economy posted weak growth in 2Q13, but the number’s breakdown shows strong final demand growth.

  • Slower Growth  

    The economy posted a below-expectation growth during the first half of the year.

  • Downside Risk for Growth  

    We maintain our growth forecasts (4.5% and 4.7% for 2013 and 2014, respectively), but downside risks for activity are increasing.

  • Slower Growth Leaves Room for Rate Cuts  

    We now expect Chile’s economy to grow by 4.5% this year and by 4.7% in 2014.


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