Momentum gains are unlikely to persist as private sentiment slumps, the labor market weakens and the global slowdown consolidates.
The effects of an unresolved trade war on Chile will lead to further interest rate cuts
Baja inflación, débil actividad, la postura expansionista de la Fed y menor crecimiento global sugieren no hay necesidad de retirar el estímulo monetario.
Low inflation, weakening activity, the Fed’s looser policy stance and lower global growth suggest that there is no need to remove stimulus in the near term.
Factores internacionales y domésticos dan espacio para mantener el estímulo monetario por más tiempo.
International and domestic factors provide room to retain monetary stimulus for longer
Incertidumbre sobre la dinámica de la inflación y riesgos externos aún elevados llevarán al banco central a ser cauteloso
Short-term uncertainty over inflation dynamics and still elevated external risks support a more cautious central bank
Revisamos nuestra proyección de crecimiento 3,2% (desde 3,5%) en parte por la sorpresa a la baja en la actividad a fin de 2018 y las incertidumbres globales.
We revised our growth forecast to 3.2% for this year (from 3.5%), due in part to uncertainty over global trade negotiations and weak data at the end of 2018
La consolidación de la recuperación de la actividad continúa, pero persisten vientos en contra.
The consolidation of the activity recovery continues, but there are still headwinds
Una caída de la inflación en los próximos meses y el hecho de que la recuperación económica no está consolidada, no damos por hecho un alza en enero
Dipping inflation in the coming months and unconsolidated economic recovery means a hike in January not a given.
Dadas señales mixtas para la actividad e inflación, un ciclo de normalización gradual parece prudente
Amid mixed activity and inflation signs, gradual hiking would be prudent
El ciclo de ajuste monetario sería gradual, dado el mercado laboral aún débil y la baja inflación subyacente
Tightening cycle will be gradual, particularly given the still-loose labor market and low underlying inflation
El proyecto de reforma tributaria enfrentaría un arduo camino en el congreso
The proposed tax reform will face a tough passage in congress
Pese al aún favorable escenario, tensiones comerciales al alza podrían impactar al cobre y limitar la capacidad de crecimiento.
Despite the favorable outlook, rising trade tensions could hamper copper prices and restrict the growth recovery.
El robusto comienzo del año supone un sesgo al alza para nuestra proyección de crecimiento.
The strong start to the year puts an upside bias to the activity outlook
La inversión se está beneficiando de la mejora en sentimiento y mayores precios del cobre.
Investment is benefitting from improved sentiment and higher copper prices
Con una recuperación generalizada y baja inflación, no hay apuro por subir tasas.
With a broad-based activity recovery and still-low inflation, there is no rush for rate hikes
Mejores condiciones domésticas significan que los principales riesgos para la recuperación vienen de fuera.
With improved domestic conditions, the main risks to the expected recovery come from abroad.
Ahora esperamos un crecimiento del PIB de 3,6% este año, y los riesgos están inclinados al alza
We now expect GDP growth of 3.6% this year, with risks tilted to the upside
Mayor crecimiento global y precio del cobre, recuperación del sentimiento privado y el estímulo monetario sostendrían la recuperación.
Stronger global growth, high copper prices, recovering private sentiment and expansionary monetary policy will boost a recovery in activity
Hemos mejorado nuestra proyección de crecimiento gracias a mejores condiciones externas y domésticas.
We have improved our growth outlook on more favorable external and domestic conditions.
Higher-than-expected inflation is putting pressure on the Central Bank
La política monetaria dependerá de inflación volátil.
El BCCh contrapesará mejor actividad con baja inflación al evaluar la necesidad de mayor estímulo monetario.
Recovery gains traction
Actividad débil y baja inflación dan espacio para estímulo monetario adicional.
With weak activity and low inflation, the upcoming Inflation Report would point to more easing.
Weak growth and a stable currency have led to subdued inflationary pressures.
Weak activity will likely show some improvement through this year as the mining drag subsides.
El gasto público previno una recesión técnica en 1T17, y una recuperación significativa no es evidente.
Government expenditure prevented a technical recession in 1Q17, and a meaningful recovery remains elusive.
Seguimos esperando un nuevo recorte, a 2,5%, antes de fines del 2T17.
The central bank would implement another 25bps rate cut before the end of 2Q17.
El ciclo completo de recortes llevaría a la TPM a 2,5% antes de fin de año.
We still expect a 100-bp easing cycle, taking the policy rate to 2.5% by yearend
Un año difícil requeriría mayor estímulo monetario.
A treacherous year will call for more policy support.
Los recortes de la TPM continuarían en medio de débil actividad.
Monetary loosening would continue amid elusive growth.
We expect a 100bps loosening cycle this year.
Low growth and disinflation will lead to rate cuts beginning in January.
La desaceleración más rápida de la inflación gatillaría recortes de tasa el próximo año.
Rate cuts next year would come amid a faster disinflationary process.
We now expect two 25-basis points rate cuts in 1Q16 amid faster disinflation and weak growth.
Pese a la débil actividad, se requiere desinflación más marcada para gatillar recortes de la TPM en 2017.
Despite weak growth, faster disinflation is needed to trigger rate cuts in 2017.
Débiles perspectivas para la actividad y menor inflación resultarían en un sesgo expansivo de la política monetaria.
A bleak outlook for growth and disinflation could lead to a looser monetary stance next year.
We now expect GDP growth of 1.5% this year, below the 2.1% rate from last year.
Low copper prices, less fiscal support and pessimistic private-sector sentiment are weightening on activity.
Low commodity prices, less fiscal support and low confidence will continue to limit a recovery.
Weak growth, a stronger currency and falling inflation confirm our view of no rate hikes.
Low copper prices limit the room for fiscal policy and weigh growth down.
We reduced our 2016 growth forecast to 2.0%.
A less-intense depreciation and a sluggish economy would help to bring inflation down.
The entire process will extend into the next administration, easing political tensions.
Partial withdrawal of monetary stimulus amid a weaker economic recovery.
The economy remained weak during 2Q15, and lower copper prices have dampened the expectations for a significant recovery
We have reduced our 2016 forecast to 3.0% (from 3.2%).
Amid higher-than-expected inflation and lower-than-expected growth, we continue to anticipate unchanged policy rates both this year and in 2016.
We have reduced our growth forecasts to 2.5% from 2.8% for this year and to 3.4% from 3.5% in 2016.
President Michelle Bachelet announced that the government will start a constitutional reform process in September.
As a response to the worsened inflation outlook, the Central Bank introduced a tightening bias in the first Monetary Policy Report of the year.
We have revised our GDP growth-rate and inflation forecasts for 2015 to 2.8% and 3.0%, respectively.
the December indicators came in significantly better than expected.
Industry continues to perform poorly.
Chile’s 3Q14 GDP grew 0.8% from the previous year
Chile’s IMACEC (monthly proxy for GDP) fell 0.2% between August and September,
We expect a modest 0.5% year-over-year increase in August’s IMACEC (monthly proxy for GDP).
Chile’s economy weakened further in 2Q14.
The IMACEC (monthly proxy for GDP) contracted by 0.8% from May to June
The IMACEC (monthly proxy for GDP) increased by 0.6% from April to May
The economy once again grew at a below-trend pace in 1Q14.
The Chilean economy grew at a below-potential rate in 1Q14.
Investment led the deceleration in 4Q13.
Chile’s economic activity has continued to slow, led by investments.
Chile’s economy slowed substantially during the last quarter of 2013, bringing growth for the full year to 4.0%.
We maintain our GDP estimate at 4.2% for 2013, but we increased our 2014 forecast to 4.2% (from 4.0%).
Chile’s GDP was up 4.7% year over year during 3Q13, following 4.0% growth the previous quarter.
The Chilean peso has weakened, led by the earlier-than-expected start of the easing cycle.
We expect Chile’s GDP to grow 4.2% in 2013 and 4.4% in 2014.
Chile’s economy posted weak growth in 2Q13, but the number’s breakdown shows strong final demand growth.
The economy posted a below-expectation growth during the first half of the year.
We maintain our growth forecasts (4.5% and 4.7% for 2013 and 2014, respectively), but downside risks for activity are increasing.
We now expect Chile’s economy to grow by 4.5% this year and by 4.7% in 2014.