Itaú BBA - Weekly Elections Monitor – Who were the blank, null and undecided voters in 2014?

Macro Vision

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Weekly Elections Monitor – Who were the blank, null and undecided voters in 2014?

mayo 30, 2018

In 2014, votes for blanks/nulls/undecided were from people with a different profile than today’s blanks/nulls/undecided

(full report attached)
 

Special comment: Last week we showed that blank, null and undecided voters for the 2018 election are mainly women from the Northeast region, with basic education, low income (less than 2 minimum wages) and above 35 years of age. This week we show the same analysis for the 2014 election, comparing polls in April 2014 with the election result actually observed that year.

The April 2014 Datafolha poll showed that blank, null, and undecided voters were also concentrated in women over 35 years of age, but in the South and Southeast regions, and with income from 2 to 10 minimum wages. This voter profile was similar to that of Marina Silva's (REDE) and Aécio Neves's (PSDB) voters. In addition, the percentage of blanks, nulls and undecided voters declined sharply from April 2014 (29%) to the date of the elections (9% of blanks and nulls). This decline of blanks, nulls and undecided over time was followed by an increase in the voting intentions of Marina Silva, initially, and later Aecio Neves.

Voting intentions for Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) increased in São Paulo, according to a new Ibope poll. In social media, growth in the number of Jair Bolsonaro's (PSL) followers picked up again, in a week marked by truck drivers’ protests.

Our monitor of economic policy signals highlights Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), who criticized the concept and implementation of the spending cap.



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