Itaú BBA - Weekly Elections Monitor – What to expect for the second round?

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Weekly Elections Monitor – What to expect for the second round?

octubre 10, 2018

We calculated the transfer rate from other candidates needed for Haddad and Bolsonaro to win in the second round

(full report attached)

Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and Fernando Haddad (PT) obtained 46% and 29% of the valid votes in Sunday's election, respectively, and will dispute the second round on October 28.

The composition of forces in Congress has not changed much. On the left wing, the number of PT congressmen declined, but there was growth of other parties linked to the left. At the center, PSDB, DEM and MDB lost congressmen, while the PSL, Bolsonaro’s party, had an expressive growth in the number of congressmen.

In state and federal district elections, 13 governors were elected in the first round, with the remaining 14 states moving on to the second round. DEM, big-center and non- traditional parties gained space against PT, MDB and PSDB.

Special comment: Our previous studies (link) indicated that the total votes in the first round minus the rejection rate show a strong correlation with the votes in the second round. Under this metric, Bolsonaro would be at an advantage over Haddad. In addition, supposing that all those who voted for these two candidates in the first round will also do so in the second round and that 100% of party voters associated with leftist ideologies migrate to Haddad, we estimate that the former mayor would need about 63% of votes of the other candidates to win the election. Similarly, if Bolsonaro doesn’t get any votes from the left wing, he would need about 37% of the other candidates' votes to win the election.

In social media, during last week, Jair Bolsonaro’s (PSL) followers grew by 1.1 million, totaling 10.5 million, while Fernando Haddad (PT) attracted 250 thousand new followers, totaling 1.6 million.

This week's highlights will be the release of a new Datafolha poll tonight and the TV Band's presidential debate scheduled for Thursday, which is still pending confirmation by Band after medical recommendations hindered Bolsonaro from attending the debate.

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