Itaú BBA - Weekly Elections Monitor – Rejection and first-round percentage of votes help predicting the runoff

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Weekly Elections Monitor – Rejection and first-round percentage of votes help predicting the runoff

septiembre 26, 2018

First-round votes and rejection rates help predict the outcome of the second-round.

(full report attached)
 

Special comment: Recent voting intention polls indicate that the probability of a first-round victory in the upcoming elections is low. We show below that the candidates’ first-round votes and rejection rates help predict the outcome of the second-round elections.

According to the latest Ibope poll, Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leads the presidential race with 27% of the voting intentions, but a rejection rate of 44%. Fernando Haddad (PT) comes second, with 21% of the voting intentions and rejection at 27%. In the second-round simulations, the PSL candidate is technically tied, within the limits of the margin of error, in all scenarios, except against Ciro Gomes (PDT), with whom he loses. 

In social media, Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and João Amoêdo (NOVO) continue to show the highest growth in the number of followers.



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