Itaú BBA - Weekly Elections Monitor – “Big-center” approaches alliance with Alckmin

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Weekly Elections Monitor – “Big-center” approaches alliance with Alckmin

julio 24, 2018

According to the media, members of the "big-center" parties communicated in the past few days their intention to support Geraldo Alckmin

(full report attached)

  According to the media, members of the "big-center" parties communicated in the past few days their intention to support Geraldo Alckmin. The official confirmation will likely take place this week.

What is the impact of TV time? In past elections, candidates with more than 40% of the total air time rose 6-11pp between the beginning of the campaigns on TV and radio, and the election. Coalitions with smaller portions of TV time did not have a statistically significant impact on the polls.

Economic policy monitor: in an interview to Valor, Geraldo Alckmin states he will implement the fiscal adjustment on the expenditure side, that he defends the end to Petrobrás' refining monopoly, and the equality of rules for the public and private sectors in the pension system. Fernando Haddad says that the pension reform should not be a taboo, advocates using 10% of international reserves for "priority works" and proposes to raise taxes for banks with high spreads and reduce them for those with smaller spreads.

In social media, Geraldo Alckmin and, to a lesser extent, Marina Silva and Fernando Haddad lost followers. A reason for that might be a Twitter effort to exclude robots and inactive profiles.

Over the coming days, the institutes Ideia Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas will publish national presidential voting intentions polls. PRB’s, PSD’s and PTB’s conventions will also take place.

 



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