Itaú BBA - We forecast GDP contraction in 1Q19

Macro Vision

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We forecast GDP contraction in 1Q19

mayo 15, 2019

We forecast 1Q19 GDP to shrink 0.2% qoq/sa

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file.

 

 We forecast 1Q19 GDP to shrink 0.2% qoq/sa (+0.4% yoy). The release will be on May 30.

 From a demand standpoint, we anticipate a slight increase in household spending, to be offset by falling investment. From a supply standpoint, we expect a small increase in services and contractions in industrial and agricultural GDP.

 Recent developments in economic activity reinforce our view that the fiscal adjustment and reduction in credit subsidies have been contributing to a decline in the neutral interest rate.

 

Luka Barbosa
Alexandre Gomes da Cunha

 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file.



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