Itaú BBA - Brazil: Declining business confidence indicates risk of a slowdown in activity

Macro Vision

< Volver

Brazil: Declining business confidence indicates risk of a slowdown in activity

abril 3, 2019

The Business Confidence Index has robust correlation with net formal job creation.

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file.

 There is a strong correlation between the Business Confidence Index (ICE, calculated by FGV) and formal job creation (as measured by the Ministry of Economy's CAGED employment registry).

• The current ICE level is consistent with formal job creation of about 20k per month, according to our estimates. In turn, this pace of job creation is consistent with annual GDP growth of only 0.8%.


Luka Barbosa
Alexandre Gomes da Cunha



< Volver