Itaú BBA - Macro Vision

  • China Outlook  

    We forecast GDP at 8.5% in 2021 and at 5,8% in 2022

  • Electricity: Rainfall and Rationing Risks  

    Rationing is still very unlikely (probability under 5%)

  • We forecast 5% GDP growth in 2021  

    GDP continues to expand in 2021H1

  • IDAT-Wage: no sign of pressure on service inflation  

    With a partial recovery of the labor market, we do not currently see demand-led inflationary pressure via wage dynamics.

  • IDAT-Employment signals (partial) recovery of the formal labor market  

    We revised our year-end unemployment rate estimate to 12.7%, from 14.3%, seasonally adjusted.

  • Will EM currencies benefit from high commodity prices?  

    International commodity prices have decoupled from the currencies of countries that export these products, indicating potential for currency appreciation

  • Avanza la vacunación, pero Chile aún tiene camino por recorrer  

    La situación sanitaria mejorará a medida que avance el programa de vacunación, junto con las medidas complementarias de movilidad

  • Vaccinations advancing, but Chile is still not out of the woods  

    The sanitary situation will improve ahead as the vaccination program advances along with complementary mobility measures

  • Breaking down inflation in years of recession/crisis in Brazil   


  • 2021: A busy political year in Latin America  

    Numerous crises and consolidating anti-establishment sentiment point to high election result uncertainty

  • Increasing our IPCA forecast to 4.3% in 2020, maintaining 3.1% for 2021  

    We changed our IPCA 2021 forecasts to 4.3% given the change in the electricity flag to red 2 in December.

  • Treasury issuances going forward: 4Q20 and 2021  

    Issuances may be lower in the 4Q20.

  • Digging into the IGP x IPCA recent gap  

    Despite higher IGP readings, lower service prices and economic slack will contribute to keep consumer prices well behaved.

  • Household spending and inflation dynamics during the pandemic  

    IPCA reflects changes in household consumption basket

  • We expect the IPCA to rise 2.5% in 2020  

    We expect food prices to increase by year-end.

  • Regional activity, mobility and emergency aid  

    Economic recovery and getting the pandemic under control are inseparable outcomes

  • The pandemic's impact on global and Brazil’s inflation  

    Short-term disinflation and acceleration in goods ahead

  • How to keep the spending ceiling  

    It is essential to keep fiscal discipline.

  • PIS/Cofins changes: impacts on sectors and inflation   

    Changing the PIS/Cofins has a heterogeneous impact among economic sectors..

  • How can the tax reform lift economic growth in Brazil?  

    A structural Tax Reform can increase 4.2% of Brazil’s GDP per capita

  • 10 frequently asked questions about the tax reform  

    Tax Reform is important to increase Brazil’s productivity

  • What’s behind the rising volatility of the BRL?  

    The recent increase in BRL volatility can be explained by macro and microeconomic variables

  • Measuring household disposable income during the COVID-19 crisis  

    Household disposable income will increase in 2Q20 and 3Q20 due to the emergency aid provided by the government, despite the decline in the wage bill.

  • Is there spare capacity in the Brazilian economy?  

    In our opinion, there is substantial spare capacity in the Brazilian economy.

  • Brazil: Fiscal Impulse Metrics  

    Fiscal policy stance should remain restrictive, in line with the adjustment through the spending cap

  • How fast will unemployment decline going forward?  

    Unemployment rate is set to recede slowly, despite faster GDP growth

  • Brazil: Fiscal policy in 2020  

    Public debt dynamics will be more favorable in the next years

  • Brazil Macro Visual_January 2020  

    Stronger-than-expected activity recovery and higher inflation rates were the highlights in the last months.

  • What will be the main drivers of the Brazilian Real going forward?  

    The prospect of faster growth may attract heftier inflows that could offset, at least to some extent, the impact of lower interest rates

  • Will private investment in infrastructure be a growth driver in Brazil?  

    Our analysis indicates that we can count on a positive impulse for economic activity in 2021/22.

  • Brazil: The spending cap – Why keep it and how to meet it?  

    Maintaining the spending cap is critical

  • Brazil: Fiscal policy after the pension reform  

    Fiscal challenge is about 3,6 p.p. of GDP

  • A new look into productivity in Brazil  

    We estimate potential GDP growth between 1.5% and 2.0% in coming years.

  • Brazil Macro Visual_August 19  

    Trade war is likely to decrease global growth, prompting central banks around the globe into easing stances - including Brazil.

  • Has the interest rate channel stopped working?  

    We see evidence that the power of monetary policy increased significantly in recent years

  • We forecast GDP contraction in 1Q19  

    We forecast 1Q19 GDP to shrink 0.2% qoq/sa

  • Brazil Macro Visual_April 19  

    We revised our GDP growth and Selic rate forecasts for 2019 and 2020.

  • Social Security reform item by item: impacts and dilutions  

    Reform is essential to fiscal rebalancing

  • Brazil: Declining business confidence indicates risk of a slowdown in activity  

    The Business Confidence Index has robust correlation with net formal job creation.

  • How to make Brazil more competitive?  

    In the competitiveness agenda, we see a tax simplification and reducing red tape as the most urgent fronts to work on

  • Increase in service inflation: noise or signal?  

    In our view, the recent increase in service inflation is just data noise and not a sign that will likely continue to accelerate.

  • Brazil Macro Visual - February 2019  

    We updated our GDP growth, inflation and exchange rate expectations for 2019

  • Brazil: Fiscal Policy in 2019  

    Reforming Social Security is the main challenge of the new government

  • Brazil Macro Visual - December 2018  

    Activity still slow, but confidence shows improvement. We revise our inflation projection, reflecting falling energy and fuel prices

  • Brazil: Are lower interest rates the new normal?  

    We estimate a real neutral interest rate of 2.5% to 3%.

  • A contribution to the debate on international reserves  

    International reserves serve as insurance, but keeping them entails costs, so there is a debate about their appropriate level.

  • Brazil Macro Visual_November 2018  

    We changed our GDP, inflation, exchange rate and interest rate forecasts for 2018 and 2019.

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – The challenges ahead of the new president  

    We summarized the possible economic agenda for the next government, as well as the number of Congressmen needed for each change

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – The proposals of the next president  

    We updated the main proposals of the candidates, based on official texts of the parties, recent interviews and statements of advisors

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – An overview of state government elections  

    We detail the results of the first round and the second round polls, when available, for the elections of each Brazilian state

  • Brazil Macro Visual_October2018  

    We revisited our inflation forecasts for 2018 and 2019; tax collection up, despite weak activity; real accumulating gains in the month

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – What to expect for the second round?  

    We calculated the transfer rate from other candidates needed for Haddad and Bolsonaro to win in the second round

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Is it too early to analyze second round polls?  

    It is a recurring argument that it’s too early to analyze second-round scenarios. What do the past elections say?

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Rejection and first-round percentage of votes help predicting the runoff  

    First-round votes and rejection rates help predict the outcome of the second-round.

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – A further look into the increase of Bolsonaro and Haddad’s voting intenti  

    We analyzed the profile of the voters that led Jair Bolsonaro and Fernando Haddad’s advance of voting intentions in recent polls. See below.

  • Brazil Macro Visual - September 2018  

    Weaker than expected GDP, but tax collection decouples from activity; BRL accumulating huge depreciation in the last couple of months

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Some color on the blanks, nulls and undecided  

    Which candidates have the greatest potential to absorb the huge contingent of blank, nulls and undecided votes?

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Spontaneous votes and their implications  

    How do spontaneous votes change over the election period?

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – The Brazilian electorate swing  

    If PT decides to replace Lula as its candidate to presidency, will his eventual substitute be able to catch up on time?

  • The crisis in Turkey and its impact on Latin America  

    Turkish economy to decelerate without policy change, but limited effects on EM

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – What are the economic proposals of the presidential candidates?  

    We’ve prepared a table summarizing the main proposals

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – How do voting intentions evolve in the presidential race final run?  

    We’ve analyzed how voting intentions evolved over the past elections, from five weeks before the first round until the election day

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – How will TV campaigns work in this year’s election?  

    CNI / Ibope poll shows that 62% of respondents will use television to obtain information about candidates

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Economist linked to PT questions effectiveness of pension reform  

    He affirmed that it is inaccurate to say that the pension reform would solve the fiscal problem

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – “Big-center” approaches alliance with Alckmin  

    According to the media, members of the "big-center" parties communicated in the past few days their intention to support Geraldo Alckmin

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Rejection rates by Ibope and Datafolha converge  

    Due to a methodological change the uncertainty about the level of each pre-candidate's rejection rate was reduced.

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Who will get the support from the “big-center“ parties?  

    This is an important decision, because the big-center parties will have around 18% of the time available for TV and radio campaign

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Ibope indicates a high percentage of blank, null and undecided voters  

    The Ibope poll a higher percentage of blank, null and undecided voters than in previous polls conducted by other institutes

  • Headed to round of 16: updating our predictions  

    Updating our model, we estimate Brazil has a 36% chance of taking the cup home, followed by England and Belgium, both at 10%.

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Bolsonaro's (PSL) advisor defends a pension capitalization regime  

    Paulo Guedes defended the adoption of a new pension capitalization regime and a reform of the state.

  • How undefined is 2018’s presidential election result?  

    We built an electoral undefinition index and verified that the 2018 election is, thus far, the most uncertain since 1989.

  • At what level will the BRL stabilize?  

    In the long run, the exchange rate depends on the amount of foreign funds available to finance the current account deficit.

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Marina Silva's (REDE) advisors defend fiscal effort, but are against the  

    They emphasized that fiscal correction is urgent, but believe the spending cap is excessive.

  • Mundial de futbol de la FIFA Rusia 2018™: ¿Quién tiene más chances de ganar?  

    Brasil tiene las mayores probabilidades de ganar, seguido de Alemania y Argentina.

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – How is the main candidates’ regional performance?  

    The main candidates have lower voting intentions today than in past elections in most states

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Inflation continues surprising to the downside in LatAm  

    The main downward contributions in the month came from the price dynamics in Brazil and Mexico

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Brazil drives negative surprise in LatAm  

    Brazil’s component weakened once again

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Advisor to Ciro Gomes (PDT) details economic proposals  

    Our monitor of economic policy signs highlights the proposals presented by Mauro Benevides Filho

  • Market Conditions Index - Financial conditions for Latin America deteriorate in May  

    Financial conditions of the region as a whole deteriorated in the month

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Who were the blank, null and undecided voters in 2014?  

    In 2014, votes for blanks/nulls/undecided were from people with a different profile than today’s blanks/nulls/undecided

  • What’s next for monetary policy in Brazil?  

    As long as uncertainties prevail, the central bank will likely keep the Selic benchmark rate stable at the current level

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Who are the blank/null and undecided voters?  

    Blank and null voters are mainly women, from the Northeast region, with basic education, low income and over 35 years of age

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – High percentage of blank/null and undecided voters in the CNT/MDA poll  

    In the scenario without Lula, none of the main candidates improved after Joaquim Barbosa’s withdrawal.

  • Weekly Elections Monitor – Joaquim Barbosa (PSB) announces that he does not intend to be a candidate  

    This is the second edition of our weekly report on the 2018 elections.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Negative surprises in April  

    The Itaú Activity Surprise Index declined to -0.24 in April (from 0.08 in March)

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Inflation surprises to the downside in Latin America  

    The main downward contributions in the month came from the price dynamics in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia.

  • Market Conditions Index - Financial conditions improve for LatAm in April  

    Financial conditions in the region as a whole posted an improvement in the month

  • Weekly Elections Monitor: Introducing our weekly report on the elections  

    We are launching today a new weekly report, focused on the 2018 elections

  • Brazil 2018 Elections Guide  

    Elections remain without a clear favorite for the presidential race

  • What’s behind the recent underperformance of the BRL?  

    We examined whether the narrower the interest rate differential, the bigger the impact of a change in the Selic on the BRL.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Balanced surprises in Brazil  

    The Brazilian subindex moved sideways, as inflation releases came virtually in line with analysts’ expectations.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Positive surprises, albeit moderate  

    A batch of stronger than expected activity releases in Mexico pushed the subindex higher.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Balanced surprises in February  

    The index decreased to 0.02 in February and now is at neutral level

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Surprises remain balanced in February  

    The Brazilian index showed slight changes and continues on positive territory

  • Market Conditions Index - Financial conditions deteriorate on global headwinds  

    Financial conditions in the region deteriorated at the margin, reflecting the global risk-off event of early February

  • NAFTA 2.0: Compromise within reach  

    We see progress on dispute settlement and rules of origin, the two most controversial issues

  • Market Conditions Index - Significant improvement in market conditions in January  

    Widespread global growth with low volatility contributed to the improvement in the financial conditions index.

  • Brazil 2018 Elections Guide  

    Our Brazil 2018 Elections Guide encompass a series of charts and analysis based on recent polls and the current election framework.

  • Brazil Macro Visual  

    Favorable global environment, recovery is becoming more widespread in Brazil

  • Investment resumes advance in November  

    We outline a gross fixed capital formation monthly series

  • What will drive Brazil’s wider current-account deficit in the coming years?  

    Even with an economic recovery, the current-account deficit will remain at still-moderate level.

  • How did current account adjustment take place in emerging market countries?  

    Contracting activity is meaningful to explain current account adjustment in Brazil, Peru, South Africa, Turkey and Russia.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Negative surprises all across LatAm  

    The surprise index fell in December to the lowest reading since July 2012.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Rising, but still negative  

    Overall, surprise indexes for most countries turned less negative in the last month of 2017.

  • Market Conditions Index - Slight improvement in Brazil’s market conditions in December  

    The Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions climbed to 0.23 in December from 0.15 in the previous month

  • Brazil Macro Visual  

    Central bank data shows that corporate loans are starting to recover

  • New Industrial Production Heat Map: Warming Up  

    New methodology, similar result: industry is warming up

  • What to expect for the 4Q17 Inflation Report  

    In the market scenario, we anticipate inflation at 2.8% for 2017 and 4.2% for 2018 and 2019.

  • Revision of Itaú Unibanco’s Monthly GDP series; decline in October  

    The revised series include activity segments that were not covered by the original index.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Downside surprises in Mexico amid natural hazards  

    The impact of the natural hazards (hurricanes and earthquakes) over activity, albeit temporary, was widespread.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Brazilian inflation resumes downside surprises  

    Downside surprises in Brazil, which had been moderating in the last months, staged a comeback in November.

  • Market Conditions Index - Market conditions deteriorate in November  

    In Brazil, the Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index dropped to 0.17 from 0.41.

  • Argentina enfrentando el desafío de reducir la inflación moderada  

    El banco central hizo progresos en la pelea contra la inflación, pero los precios al consumidor siguen creciendo bien por encima de la meta.

  • Argentina - Facing the moderate inflation challenge  

    The Central Bank of Argentina has made progress in fighting inflation, but consumer prices continue expanding far above target.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Balanced surprises across LatAm  

    The Brazilian surprise index declined again in October, whereas Mexican data came stronger than expected.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Chilean inflation surprises to the downside  

    The Chilean index fell deeper into negative territory, driven by the lowest monthly inflation reading on record for September

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Better price dynamics in Mexico, more positive surprises in Brazi  

    The highlight was the moderation of the Mexican index, as September releases hinted at more benign inflationary pressures.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Declining, but still positive  

    The Brazil subcomponent edged down in September, as labor market releases came in-line with the market’s prospects.

  • How the TLP can impact monetary policy  

    TLP should contribute to substantially boost the Selic rate’s influence on the economy

  • Market Conditions Index - Financial variables remain at expansionary levels  

    The Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index (IU-MCI) fell to 0.72 from 0.86

  • What to expect for the 3Q17 Inflation Report  

    We estimate declines in the inflation forecasts for 2017 and 2018.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Upward surprises in Mexico, mixed releases in Brazil  

    After four consecutive months of declines, the Brazilian surprise indicator increased in August.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Widespread positive surprises in Brazil  

    The Brazilian component was the only one to improve in August

  • Market Conditions Index - More expansionary financial conditions  

    The Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index advanced to 0.83 in August from 0.81.

  • Reforms could bring Brazil’s potential GDP to 3.5%  

    Without adjustments, potential GDP would be closer to 1.5%.

  • Argentina: La hora de la consolidación fiscal  

    No creemos que la administración alcance la meta fiscal de 2018 sin una reforma fiscal significativa.

  • Argentina: Time for fiscal consolidation  

    Without meaningful reforms, we do not expect the 2018 target to be met

  • FAQs: Brazil’s political reform  

    Proposals must be sanctioned by October 7 in order to be effective in the next elections

  • We raised our 2Q17 GDP forecast from -0.2% to 0.0%  

    The increase is a consequence of stronger data in June.

  • Reestructuración del TLCAN  

    El TLCAN sobrevivirá, con cambios en favor de los EUA pero sin implicancias transformacionales para México

  • Labor reform: Potential impacts  

    The recently-approved labor reform can help to boost productivity, and supply and demand for workers.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Downside surprises all across LatAm  

    Brazil’s index dropped again, amid another batch of downside inflation surprises.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Firmer activity in Mexico, mixed surprises elsewhere  

    Mexico’s index turned positive, as the slowdown has proved more gradual than the market had anticipated.

  • Reshaping NAFTA  

    NAFTA will live on, with changes in favor of the U.S. but without transformational implications for Mexico

  • Market Conditions Index - More expansionary given the improvement in commodities  

    The Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index (IU-MCI) advanced to 0.36 in July from -0.31 in the previous month.

  • Unemployment approaching a peak in Brazil  

    We have revised the trajectory of the unemployment rate in our scenario

  • What is the impact of heightened uncertainty on future monetary policy steps?  

    We believe that the economic environment will continue to be disinflationary and we expect the Copom to cut the Selic rate

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Positive surprises in Brazil, disappointing data elsewhere  

    The Itaú Activity Surprise Index retraced in June, dragged by negative surprises in Mexico, Chile and Peru.

  • Desaceleración en América Latina: el papel de los factores externos  

    La mayor parte de la desaceleración observada en América Latina puede ser atribuida a un escenario externo más adverso.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - LatAm inflation keeps surprising to the downside  

    Inflation came below median expectations in Brazil and Peru; Mexican indexes surprised to the upside again.

  • Latin America slowdown: the role of external factors  

    The bulk of the slowdown in Latin American can be attributed to a less supportive external scenario

  • What to expect for the 2Q17 Inflation Report  

    The IR may signal the need to reduce the uncertainty and the scope of possibilities on the future course of monetary policy.

  • Country risk: how far can it reach?  

    Maintaining the Brazilian risk at lower levels requires the continuity of the reforms and a benign international scenario.

  • ECB: The tricky road to monetary policy normalization  

    A simultaneous exit is the safest approach to address idiosyncratic differences amongst Eurozone countries

  • Market Conditions Index - Volatility strikes Brazilian financial variables in May  

    The Brazilian financial variables subcomponent deteriorated, presenting volatility in face of political uncertainty.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Broad disinflation in Brazil, upward surprises in Mexico  

    In Brazil, the general price indices (IGPs) registered deeper-than-expected monthly deflation.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Widespread improvement in activity surprises  

    Our proprietary Itaú Activity Surprise Index rose to 0.22 in May from 0.10 in April, led by improvements all across LatAm.

  • A closer look at Argentina’s October mid-term election  

    On October 22, Argentines will vote to renew one-third of the Senate seats and one-half of the Lower Chamber’s.

  • Brazil: less vulnerable to shocks  

    The country may count on robust buffers and is therefore less vulnerable to both internal and external shocks

  • We forecast 1Q17 GDP growth at 1.1%  

    Strong contribution from agriculture and a favorable carryover for industrial production.

  • Could the Brazilian economy grow with high unemployment?  

    It is possible to see significant economic growth without a significant recovery in the level of employment.

  • Is the Correlation Between Industrial Production and Confidence Still Valid?  

    We show a model that explains this apparent decoupling.

  • Argentina: The case for higher international reserves  

    Reserves usually end up having costs, but the benefit is that they lower liquidity risk.

  • Market Conditions Index - Market conditions worsen in April  

    The decline owes to both a drop in commodity prices and worsening financial variables (mostly due to the former).

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Downside inflation surprises are moderating  

    Brazil kept the index in the negative range, as the widespread disinflationary trend extends itself.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Data methodology changes in Brazil distort April’s result  

    Our Itaú Activity Surprise Index inched up to to 0.12 in April from 0.11 in March

  • We increased our 1Q17 GDP forecast to 1.4% from 0.5%  

    Our scenario assumes a strong contribution from agricultural production.

  • France to remain in the Eurozone even if Le Pen wins  

    Political gridlock to block attempts at na EU exit referendum

  • Social Security reform: alternative transition rules  

    Keeping a short transition to the minimum age of 65 is crucial.

  • Uncovering Latam central bank’s reaction functions  

    Taylor Rules predict more accommodative monetary conditions in the region

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Mostly downside inflation surprises  

    Leaving out Mexico, inflation data reinforce the ongoing disinflationary context.

  • Market Conditions Index - Less expansionary given the drop in commodities  

    Brazilian market conditions worsened in March, due to a drop in commodity prices.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Mixed signals amid a slow recovery  

    Due to methodology tweaks in Brazilian data, this month’s underperformance should be taken with a grain of salt.

  • Has Europopulism been stopped?  

    Europopulism in Europe might weaken ahead, but Italy’s situation requires attention.

  • What we expect for the 1Q17 Inflation Report  

    The IR should corroborate signs of intensification in the monetary easing cycle indicated by recently issued official documents.

  • When to cut the inflation target?  

    In June this year, there may be a window of opportunity to reduce the Brazilian inflation target.

  • Qual é o momento de reduzir a meta de inflação?  

    Em junho deste ano, pode estar aberta uma janela de oportunidade para reduzir a meta de inflação brasileira.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Stable surprises and slow recovery  

    Our Itaú Activity Surprise Index decreased to 0.03 in February from 0.14 in January.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - More modest downside surprises  

    Leaving out Peru, the Latin American countries covered are seeing more modest downside surprises, or even positive ones.

  • Market Conditions Index - Market Conditions remain expansionary in February  

    The IU-MCI was virtually flat in February and remained expansionary.

  • We forecast a 0.6% decline in Brazilian 4Q16 GDP  

    Fundamentals continue to suggest a recovery ahead

  • What is the fiscal position of municipalities?  

    The fiscal position of municipalities is less concerning when compared with the central government and the states.

  • Finding MXN equilibrium in more challenging conditions  

    In worst-case scenario, U.S. border tax would push the Mexican peso’s fair value to 23.1 to the dollar

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Positive surprises, but slow recovery  

    The reality suggests that activity in the region is picking up, but that a recovery will be slower than expected.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Downward inflation surprises sustained  

    Following the recent trend, inflationary pressures continue to recede in Brazil, Colombia and Chile.

  • Market Conditions Index - Strong improvement in January  

    The movement was driven by both Brazilian financial variables and commodity prices.

  • What if the inflation target is reduced?  

    If monetary policy is perfectly credible, a reduction in the target enables lower inflation and lower nominal interest rates.

  • Argentina: A moving yardstick  

    A national CPI should show lower inflation than the current index.

  • We revised our GDP forecast to 1.0% in 2017  

    GDP likely declined again in 4Q16

  • Ten common misconceptions about Brazil’s Pension reform (PEC 287)  

    This report aims to correct ten common misunderstandings about the proposal and about the current situation of Brazil’s Pension and Social Security systems.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Downward inflation surprises persist  

    Downward inflation surprises have been common in countries where activity has also been weaker than expectations.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Uneven improvement  

    Results were mixed, but the net effect was positive.

  • Market Conditions Index - Market conditions deteriorate further in December  

    The Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index (IU-MCI) worsened to -0.03 from 0.44 in November.

  • What we expect from the 4Q2016 Inflation Report  

    The IR will probably reinforce the monetary authority’s recent statement which, as we see it, signals a 50 bps interest rate cut at its January meeting.

  • Brazilian states in crisis: diagnosis and solutions  

    The solution for the structural crisis is by controlling spending.

  • FAQs: Social Security Reform (PEC 287)  

    The reform is necessary, given the aging of the Brazilian population.

  • We forecast GDP growth of 1.5% in 2017  

    Inventories are set to contribute positively.

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Inflationary pressures continue to recede  

    Inflationary pressures continue to recede in most of the region’s economies.

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Back to negative  

    The index continues to display volatile behaviour in the last few months.

  • Market Conditions Index - External uncertainties lead to deterioration in market conditions in Novem  

    The Itaú Unibanco Market Conditions Index declined to 0.44 from 0.75 in October. This deterioration was driven by external uncertainties.

  • Estimando tipos de cambio sostenibles en América Latina  

    Hemos estimado los tipos de cambio consistentes con déficits de cuenta corriente sostenibles a largo plazo en América Latina.

  • Estimating sustainable exchange rates in Latin America  

    We have estimated the exchange rates consistent with sustainable current account deficits in the long term for Latin America

  • We forecast a 1.1% decline in Brazilian 3Q16 GDP  

    Investment probably declined again

  • Agenda económica de Donald Trump  

    La expansión fiscal llevará a la Fed a aplicar un mayor ajuste monetaria.

  • Heat Map of Industrial Output  

    The heat map analysis reinforces the fact that activity has stopped retreating, but there are no clear signs of a rebound yet.

  • Trumponomics  

    Fiscal expansion will lead to tighter monetary policy by the Fed

  • Itaú Inflationary Surprise Index - Brazil pulls the index further down  

    Inflationary pressures are milder in most countries the region (especially in Brazil).

  • Itaú Activity Surprise Index - Chile leads the flock  

    A rebound from Chile was the month’s highlight, while Colombia remains at the tail-end.

  • Market Conditions Index - Another improvement in market conditions  

    The improvement was due to idiosyncratic factors in Brazil, which boosted the Brazilian financial variables subcomponent.

  • Argentina: Las negociaciones salariales y sus implicancias para la política monetaria  

    La convergencia hacia la meta de inflación dependerá en gran parte de la próxima ronda de negociaciones salariales.

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