Itaú BBA - Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Electoral race kicks off

Macro Latam

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Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Electoral race kicks off

junio 24, 2019

We lowered our GDP growth projections to 0.5% for 2019 (from 0.7%) and 1.5% for 2020 (from 2%).

For the full version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

• Primary elections are scheduled for June 30. Leading the polls are Daniel Martinez for Frente Amplio, Luis Lacalle Pou for Partido Nacional and Ernesto Talvi for Partido Colorado.
 

• We lowered our GDP growth projections to 0.5% for 2019 (from 0.7%) and 1.5% for 2020 (from 2%), in line with our scenario of decelerating regional and global growth.
 

• Fiscal accounts continued to deteriorate, affected by slower economic activity. We expect a consolidated fiscal deficit of 3.2% of GDP this year (including extraordinary income from the over-50 law, equivalent to 1.6% of GDP) and 3% in 2020 (from 3.1% and 2.7%, respectively), affected by a weak economy.


Juan Carlos Barboza
Diego Ciongo



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