Itaú BBA - Macro Latam

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A 50-bp rate cut and strengthening liquidity measures  

    Our call is for stable rates ahead, but risks are tilted to more easing.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved even further in February  

    Manufacturing exports deteriorated on a monthly basis

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside in January  

    Economic activity to deteriorate sharply in 1H2020

  • ARGENTINA – Still-wide trade surplus in February  

    Lower commodity prices are likely to affect trade surplus this year

  • ARGENTINA – Current account turned into surplus in 4Q19  

    At the margin, we estimate that the s.a. current account surplus reached 2.3% of GDP in 4Q19.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales in January recovered  

    Coronavirus outbreak to hit private consumption in 1H2020

  • ARGENTINA – GDP fell 2.2% in 2019, marking two years of recession  

    Our GDP growth forecast for 2020 was recently revised down to -4.4% from -2.0%

  • MEXICO – Inflation decelerated in 1H March  

    Lower energy prices pressured down inflation

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting anticipated: A 50-bp hawkish cut, but more easing is likely  

    We expect a policy rate of 5.50% by the end of 2020.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained weak in 4Q19  

    Public gross fixed investment deteriorated further.

  • COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowing in January to be short-lived  

    Amid the recent terms-of-trade collapse and the global scenario deterioration, Colombia’s external imbalances will likely endure ahead.

  • CHILE – Marcada caída del consumo en el 4T19  

    La expansión global del COVID-19 y las medidas resultantes solo aumentaron los vientos en contra.

  • CHILE – Mayor déficit de cuenta corriente en 2019  

    We expect a weaker domestic demand and lower energy prices to lead to a narrowing of external imbalance this year.

  • CHILE – Current account deficit widened in 2019  

    We expect a weaker domestic demand and lower energy prices to lead to a narrowing of external imbalance this year.

  • CHILE – A consumption implosion in 4Q19  

    The global expansion of COVID-19 and the resulting measures undertaken only enhance headwinds ahead.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: A 75-bp intermeeting rate cut and measures to support the financial  

    The global liquidity wave paved the way for rate cuts in Chile.

  • CHILE – Reunión de Política Monetaria Excepcional: Un recorte de tasas de 75pb  

    La oleada de liquidez global le allanó el camino al banco central.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production recovered softly in January  

    Coronavirus outbreak pose downside risks to industrial production outlook

  • COLOMBIA – Retail sales continued to drive growth in January  

    Strong external headwinds will likely lead to a growth slowdown ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Disinflation continued in February  

    Tariff freeze decelerated headline inflation.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: No changes in monetary policy  

    Price stability would give the BCP room to maintain the current monetary policy rate.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: New government in office  

    The government is focused on public accounts.

  • MEXICO – Headline inflation rises beyond expectations, with core inflation slowing down  

    Annual inflation rebound will fade away in March as the unfavorable base effect disappears

  • CHILE – Otro amplio superávit comercial en febrero  

    La rápida corrección de los desequilibrios externos de Chile es un desarrollo favorable que podría aliviar parte de la presión sobre el peso.

  • CHILE – Another large trade surplus in February  

    The quick correction of Chile’s external imbalances is a favorable development that could alleviate part of the pressure on the CLP.

  • CHILE – Tradable inflation pushes inflation up once again  

    Inflation pass-through pressures will keep inflation elevated for the coming months until weakened internal demand

  • CHILE – Tradable inflation pushes inflation up once again  

    Inflation pass-through pressures will keep inflation elevated for the coming months until weakened internal demand

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation in line with expectations in February  

    Robust growth, along with the weakening of the Colombian peso, pose a risk to our disinflation expectation

  • MEXICO – Weak domestic demand in 4Q19  

    The figures show internal demand in Mexico was weak in 2019

  • COLOMBIA – Another wide current account deficit in 2019  

    The favorable FDI inflows to Colombia would continue to allay possible central bank concerns

  • PERU – Low inflation in February  

    Annual headline inflation stood below the central bank target for the sixth month in a row

  • CHILE – Activity off to a faster-than-expected start to 2020  

    Despite the positive dynamics at the beginning of the year, a continued momentum recovery is unlikely

  • CHILE – Labor survey revamp results in higher historical unemployment  

    A further labor market loosening is expected amid low growth.

  • COLOMBIA – Favorable urban labor market developments in January  

    Labor market developments in urban zones is in line with a prolonged period of activity recovery and elevated business confidence levels

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in January  

    Manufacturing exports improved on a monthly basis, but momentum is still weak

  • CHILE – Activity recovery advances in January  

    Sectorial indicators point at a January GDP proxy (IMACEC) expansion of 1.0%.

  • CHILE – Revisión metodológica de la encuesta de empleo arroja un desempleo histórico mayor  

    Esperamos un deterioro adicional del mercado laboral dado el bajo crecimiento.

  • CHILE – La recuperación de la actividad continuó en enero  

    Los indicadores sectoriales apunta a un crecimiento del 1% para el IMACEC de enero.

  • ARGENTINA – Weak activity affects fiscal balance in January  

    Total revenues decreased by 8.2% yoy in real terms in January, dragged down by a weak tax collection

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy minutes: not committing with further rate cuts  

    Most members are data dependent for future monetary policy decisions

  • MEXICO – 4Q19 Inflation Report: Lower GDP growth forecasts and slightly higher inflation  

    The balance of risks for inflation was kept as uncertain

  • PERU – Soft 2019 GDP, amid narrow fiscal and external accounts  

    Final domestic demand was dragged mainly by weak gross fixed public investment

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus remained solid at the beginning of the year  

    Weak imports sustained a wide trade surplus in January.

  • ARGENTINA – GDP contraction in 2019  

    Economic activity marked two years of recession.

  • COLOMBIA – Trade deficit in 2019 widened to a three-year high  

    We expect the CAD was close to 4.5% of GDP last year (3.9% in 2018).

  • COLOMBIA – Growth in 2019 was the highest in 5 years  

    Growth in 4Q19 was broadly in line with 3Q19 as slowing consumption and investment were offset by a smaller net export drag.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Uncertainty keeps the board in wait-and-watch mode  

    Subtle signal that further loosening could once again become part of the discussion

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: La incertidumbre mantiene al consejo en modo de  

    Hubo señales sutiles de que recortes de tasas podrían volver a la discusión

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: Board unanimously vote for another 25-bp rate cut  

    Deputy Governor Esquivel is no longer backing a 50-bp move.

  • COLOMBIA – Another strong year for retail, but can it endure?  

    Despite protests losing momentum by December, activity at the margin continued to weaken, hampering the carry-over for 2020

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Inflation under control  

    Below the inflation target

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Fiscal accounts deteriorated  

    The incoming government proposes a fiscal rule to ensure the sustainability of public finances.

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Inflación bajo control  

    Esperamos un alza de precios de 3,5% en 2020, en línea con un mayor dinamismo esperado de la demanda interna

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Deterioro de las cuentas públicas  

    El déficit fiscal consolidado aumentó en 2019 hasta 3,4% del PIB desde 2,9% en 2018.

  • CHILE – Inflación sorprende conforme se materializan presiones de devaluación  

    La inflación no transable cercana a mínimos históricos refleja presiones inflacionarias contenidas de la demanda interna

  • CHILE – Inflation surprise as pass-through pressures materialize  

    Reflecting restrained domestic demand pressures is the near historical low non-tradable inflation

  • CHILE – Large trade balance result to start 2020  

    Still double-digit falls in consumer and capital goods imports underscore the weak domestic demand

  • CHILE – Amplio superávit comercial al comienzo de 2020  

    Las caídas de dos dígitos en las importaciones de bienes de consumo y de capital destacan la débil demanda interna

  • COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation to start the year  

    Moderating service inflation points to well-behaved core price dynamics

  • COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation to start the year  

    Moderating service inflation points to well-behaved core price dynamics

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report – Narrower output gap could justify a modest policy tightening  

    Despite a more gradual disinflation path now expected, inflation is viewed to be under control

  • CHILE – Activity bounce-back exceeds expectations in December  

    Expansionary monetary policy and fiscal stimulus would aid an activity recovery from 4Q19

  • CHILE – Recuperación de la actividad supera las expectativas en diciembre  

    Política monetaria expansiva y el estímulo fiscal ayudarán a una recuperación de la actividad desde el 4T19

  • CHILE – Bitter sweet labor market data in 4Q19  

    We expect the full impact of the recent events on the labor market to be reflected in coming months

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Reinforcing stable rates  

    Inflation balance of risks remains symmetrical.

  • CHILE – Sorpresa positiva de actividad para terminar un año difícil  

    Pese a señales de que la actividad está mejorando, el pesimismo privado incidirá en un bajo crecimiento este año.

  • COLOMBIA – Some labor market positives in 4Q19  

    If the labor market shows some improvement ahead, the central bank would not need to increase the monetary stimulus.

  • CHILE – Positive activity surprise to end a dismal year  

    Despite positive signs that activity is improving, downbeat private sentiment would lead to below potential growth this year

  • CHILE – Datos laborales mixtos en el 4T19  

    Esperamos que el impacto de los eventos recientes en el mercado laboral se refleje en los próximos meses.

  • MEXICO – Weak 4Q19 GDP flash estimate  

    The economy likely contracted 0.1% in 2019

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Rates on hold amid uncertain inflation path  

    Our expectation of rates cuts depends on the impact of the Chilean peso on inflationary pressures

  • CHILE – Reunión de Política Monetaria: Tasas estables en escenario incierto para la inflación  

    Nuestra expectativa de recortes de la TPM depende de la evolución del peso y su impacto sobre la inflación.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in 2019  

    Weak non-oil imports supported the improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside in November  

    The real wage bill continues to expand at a solid pace

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside in November  

    Economic activity momentum remained weak

  • ARGENTINA – Record trade surplus in 2019  

    We expect the trade surplus to remain wide in 2020

  • ARGENTINA – Further deceleration of activity at the end of 2019  

    Activity contracted by 2.3% yoy during the first 11 months of the year

  • ARGENTINA – Sharp adjustment of fiscal deficit in 2019  

    We forecast a primary deficit of 1% of GDP this year

  • MEXICO – Transitory inflation rebound  

    Inflation was pressured by an unfavorable base effect and an update in excise tax

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: GDP growth resumes after the drought  

    GDP growth resumed in 3Q19, led by consumption

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Challenges for the new administration  

    The fiscal deficit increased in 2019, becoming the foremost challenge for the new government

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit in November  

    We expect the current account deficit to remain wide at around 4.5% of GDP for both 2019 and 2020.

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Desafíos para la nueva administración  

    El déficit fiscal aumentó en 2019, convirtiéndose en el mayor desafío para el nuevo gobierno.

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: El PIB volvió a crecer tras la sequía  

    Esperamos que la economía se expanda 3,5% este año, luego de un crecimiento nulo en 2019

  • COLOMBIA – Activity moderates in November  

    A gradual core retail sales slowdown expected ahead, in line with depressed sentiment and a weakening labor market

  • PERU – Weak economic activity in November  

    Economic activity was dragged mainly by a sharp contraction in construction output

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation ends 2019 at a high level  

    Our forecast for 2020 stands at 43%

  • MEXICO – Weak domestic demand in October  

    Uncertainties over the direction of domestic policy are weighing on investment

  • MEXICO – Industrial production remained weak in November  

    Industrial production surprised on the downside

  • MEXICO – Inflation falls further, but still gradual deceleration of core  

    Persistence in core inflation stand in the way of a more frontloaded easing cycle

  • CHILE – Inflación menor a la esperada en diciembre  

    Pese a la sorpresa bajista en la inflación, nuestro índice de difusión apunta a mayores registros inflacionarios hacia adelante.

  • CHILE – Lower-than-expected inflation in December  

    Despite the lower-than-expected inflation, our diffusion index points to above-target prints in coming months

  • CHILE – Amplio superávit comercial a fin de 2019  

    La normalización de las exportaciones y la debilidad de las importaciones llevará a una marcada reducción del déficit de cuenta corriente este año.

  • CHILE – Large trade surplus to end 2019  

    An export normalization amid constrained imports would lead to a sharp narrowing of the current account deficit this year

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation in line with expectations at the close of 2019  

    Food price normalization after the recent supply shocks would aid the expected disinflation process this year

  • CHILE – Otra fuerte caída de actividad en noviembre  

    A medida que las operaciones se normalizaron durante el último mes de 2019, esperamos una contracción interanual de actividad más leve en Diciembre.

  • CHILE – Another sharp activity drop in November  

    As activity operations normalized during the final month of 2019, we expect a milder year-over-year activity contraction in December

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy minutes: further gradual rate cuts are likely  

    Divisions over the balance of risks for inflation remain

  • CHILE – Some positives in November labor market figures  

    Despite the November surprise, we expect a weakening labor market.

  • CHILE – Algunas cifras positivas del mercado laboral en noviembre  

    Pese a la sorpresa de noviembre, esperamos que el mercado laboral se debilite

  • CHILE – Manufacturing activity recovered in November  

    We now expect a 3% contraction for the monthly GDP proxy in November.

  • CHILE – La actividad manufacturera se recuperó en noviembre  

    Ahora esperamos un IMACEC de -3% en noviembre

  • MEXICO – Manufacturing exports suggest activity weakness persists in 4Q19  

    Manufacturing exports weakened in November

  • COLOMBIA – Mixed labor market signs in November  

    We expect only a gradual improvement of the labor market in 2020, so the central bank will likely remain on hold.

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP deteriorated in October  

    Services and industrial output were the main drags to economic activity

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Reinforcing stability  

    The board saw no reason to change the status quo

  • MEXICO – Soft domestic demand in 3Q19  

    Private gross fixed investment deteriorated further

  • MEXICO – Headline and core inflation fell by more than market expectations  

    Headline inflation decelerated, helped by a slowdown in both core and non-core inflation

  • ARGENTINA – Activity decelerated again at the beginning of 4Q19  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 2.9% for this year.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable rates retain appeal  

    We believe that the central bank will remain on hold for some time.

  • COLOMBIA – Tax reform re-approved  

    Despite tax reform approval, we note that Colombia's fiscal accounts remain fragile going forward.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the downside in October  

    At the margin, retail sales contracted sharply on a monthly basis

  • ARGENTINA – Current account deficit narrowed significantly in 3Q19  

    We forecast a current account deficit of 0.6% of GDP for this year

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: reinforcing gradualism  

    Only one dissident board member voted for a 50-bp cut

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Economic activity recovers  

    Activity showed a strong rebound in the second half of the year.

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: Tasas estables a corto plazo, posibles recortes  

    Recortes serían posibles, si el tipo de cambio se estabiliza

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Stable rates in the short-term, rate cuts possible afterwar  

    We expect rates on hold in coming months. However, a weak activity and higher unemployment rate ahead mean rate cuts remain possible

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: New government  

    Reducing the fiscal deficit is the main challenge of the new administration.

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Nuevo gobierno  

    Reducir el déficit fiscal es el principal desafío del nuevo gobierno, pero alinear la inflación al rango meta son relevantes.

  • COLOMBIA – Weaker imports, but still a wide trade deficit  

    With domestic demand still upbeat, and global growth low, we expect the current account deficit to remain wide ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Short-lived GDP recovery in 3Q19  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 2.9% for this year.

  • PERU – Economic activity deteriorated further in October  

    Monthly GDP was dragged by construction output and non-primary manufacturing activity

  • COLOMBIA – Positive activity start to 4Q19  

    Social protests may curb activity dynamism ahead

  • MEXICO – October’s industrial production deteriorated further  

    The weakness in U.S. economic activity is reflected more clearly in Mexico’s manufacturing sector

  • ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected inflation in November  

    Inflation to hit a record high in 2019.

  • CHILE – Trade balance still affected by social unrest in November  

    The expected internal demand collapse will lead to a swift narrowing of the current account balance next year.

  • CHILE – Balanza comercial de noviembre continúa afectada por los eventos recientes.  

    El esperado deterioro de la demanda interna, en medio de un escenario externo en términos generales

  • MEXICO – CPI decelerated further, with annual core inflation falling slowly  

    Slow core inflation deceleration reinforce a gradual monetary easing cycle for now

  • CHILE – Inflación aún bien comportada en noviembre  

    Los transables están empezando a empujar la inflación al alza

  • COLOMBIA – Controlled inflation in November as shocks start to unwind  

    So far, only a mild pass-through from the depreciation of the Colombian peso has materialized

  • CHILE – Still well-behaved inflation in November  

    Tradable prices are starting to push inflation up

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained weak in 3Q19  

    Uncertainties facing the economy are weighing on investment

  • CHILE – Informe de Política Monetaria: Proyecciones de inflación más alta invocan cautela  

    Movimientos de tasas dependerán del desempeño de la actividad, mercado laboral, tipo de cambio y expectativas de inflación

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: High inflation forecast bodes caution  

    Rate moves will depend on the evolution of activity, the labor market, exchange rate and inflation expectations

  • CHILE – Reunión de Política Monetaria: Tasas estables por un tiempo  

    Una trayectoria de inflación incierta en medio de presiones opuestas inspiró cautela.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable for some time  

    An uncertain inflation path amid opposing pressures inspired caution

  • CHILE – Marcada contracción de las ventas minoristas, con perspectivas pesimistas  

    Con el sentimiento del consumidor en mínimos históricos y el mercado laboral debilitándose, el consumo se moderará hacia adelante.

  • CHILE – Stark retail sales contraction, while outlook is bleak  

    With consumer confidence at historic lows and the labor market set to loosen, consumption will slow significantly ahead

  • PERU – Inflation surprises to the upside in November, but remained low  

    Headline and core annual inflation remained practically unchanged

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit widens in 3Q19  

    A wide CAD would leave the Colombian peso vulnerable to the domestic uncertainties.

  • CHILE – Worst activity performance since global financial crisis  

    Despite falling activity, FX volatility will get in the way of rate cuts this month.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market weakness persists in October  

    Rising unemployment rate and a possible labor market reform are key discussion points in the current social protests

  • CHILE – Peor desempeño de la actividad desde la crisis financiera internacional  

    Pese a la caída de la actividad, volatilidad cambiaria limitará el espacio para recortes de tasa este mes.

  • CHILE – Importante caída de manufactura en el primer registro afectado por los eventos recientes  

    El menor registro histórico de confianza empresarial y la débil actividad apuntan a que no habría recuperación del crecimiento en 2020.

  • CHILE – El mercado laboral se debilita  

    Los datos de la RM de Santiago reflejan mejor el impacto de los eventos recientes.

  • CHILE – Labor market weakening begins  

    The greater Santiago data better reflects the impact of recent events.

  • CHILE – Large manufacturing drop in first major protest-affected data print  

    Record-low business confidence and weak activity point at no recovery of growth next year.

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy minutes: a gradual easing cycle  

    Strong divisions within the board remain.

  • MEXICO – Stable trade balance in October  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy is weighing on manufacturing exports

  • MEXICO – 3Q19 Inflation Report: Lower GDP growth forecasts and higher short-term core inflation  

    Core inflation projection shows a delay in its deceleration trend, compared to the past inflation report

  • ARGENTINA – Back to recession in 3Q19  

    We revised our GDP forecast down to a contraction of 2.9% for this year (from -2.5% in our previous scenario).

  • MEXICO – Above market expectations retail sales in September  

    At the margin, retail sales improved on a monthly basis, but momentum was soft in 3Q19

  • MEXICO – Annual GDP contracted in 3Q19  

    Past GDP revisions show the economy was in a mild technical recession in 1H19

  • MEXICO – Current account deficit (CAD) remained narrow in 3Q19  

    Net direct investment was enough to cover the CAD

  • MEXICO – Inflation accelerated slightly, with core slowing down gradually  

    Inflation came in broadly in line with market expectations.

  • PERU – GDP improved in 3Q19, while fiscal and external deficits remained narrow  

    Final domestic demand improved in 3Q19, supported by a recovery in private demand and public consumption

  • ARGENTINA – Solid trade surplus in October  

    Larger-than-expected trade surpluses over the last few months led to an upward revision of our forecast for 2019.

  • CHILE – Amplio déficit de cuenta corriente en el 3T19  

    Débil demanda doméstica, el ajuste del tipo de cambio y alguna recuperación de la demanda global ayudarán al ajuste de las cuentas externas de Chile.

  • CHILE – Large current account deficit in 3Q19  

    Domestic demand wekaness, the exchange rate adjustment and some global recovery will favor the external account adjustment in Chile

  • CHILE – Growth peaked in 3Q19 prior to protests  

    Drivers of growth in the quarter will likely fade in coming quarters.

  • CHILE – El crecimiento alcanzó su punto máximo en el 3T19 previo a los eventos recientes  

    Pesimismo privado, moderación en el crecimiento del crédito e incertidumbre afectarán al crecimiento hasta 2020.

  • COLOMBIA – Favorable activity dynamics in 3Q19  

    Robust investment and consumption will drive growth of 3.3% this year (2.6% in 2018).

  • COLOMBIA – Weakening exports amid solidifying imports widen trade deficit in 3Q19  

    Robust domestic demand amid weak global activity suggests the current account deficit will remain wide ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Lower than expected headline inflation in October  

    Exchange rate controls have helped to moderate inflation in the basket of goods.

  • MEXICO – Banxico cut 25-bp the policy rate in another split decision  

    Marginal changes to the statement, with a dovish tone

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Second round  

    The Frente Amplio won in October, but the opposition joins with an eye on the second round.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Central Bank has completed easing cycle  

    Central Bank kept policy rate unchanged in October

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: In the midst of uncertainty  

    We believe the output gap would widen further, justifying lower rates

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Segundo turno  

    El Frente Amplio ganó en octubre, pero la oposición se une con un ojo en el segundo turno.

  • MEXICO – 3Q19 Industrial production improved, but momentum was weak  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy is weighting on Mexico’s manufacturing sector

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: En medio de la incertidumbre  

    Creemos que la brecha del producto se ampliará aún más, justificando tasas más bajas.

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Banco central finaliza ciclo de recortes de tasa  

    El banco central mantuvo sin cambios la tasa de política monetaria en octubre.

  • CHILE – Higher-than-expected October inflation  

    A widening output gap would likely keep demand-side inflationary pressures contained ahead

  • CHILE – Un déficit comercial en octubre conforme disturbios limitan la actividad  

    La incertidumbre doméstica incidiría negativamente en el dinamismo de las importaciones

  • MEXICO – CPI remained stable, while core inflation slowly declines  

    Core inflation slowdown increases the odds of Banxico frontloading the easing cycle

  • CHILE – October trade deficit as protests halt activity  

    Domestic uncertainty would lead to negative effect on import dynamics, while exports could benefit from improving global sentiment

  • MEXICO – Gross fixed investment recovered, but momentum is still weak  

    Construction investment supported the recovery

  • COLOMBIA – Higher inflation in October, but stable core  

    Unwinding of supply-side shocks, a negative output gap and controlled inflation expectations would aid the convergence towards 3% next year.

  • CHILE – Decepcionantes ventas minoristas en septiembre  

    Con la caída en la confianza del consumidor, la desaceleración del crecimiento del crédito y disrupciones en operaciones, el consumo se desaceleraría aún más.

  • CHILE – Disappointing retail sales in September  

    With consumer confidence falling, credit growth slowing and supply-side shocks affecting operations, consumption is set to slump further.

  • CHILE – Weaker-than-expected activity ahead of protest effect  

    With activity set to slump in 4Q19, growth this year is likely to come in closer to 2% (2.2% previously expected)

  • CHILE – Actividad más débil de lo esperado previo a los eventos recientes  

    La esperada disminución de la actividad en el 4T19 implica que el crecimiento de este año se acercaría al 2% (2,2% previamente esperado).

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: No game changer  

    Stable rates remain the status quo

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Staying on hold and wrapping up the reserve accumulation program  

    The board continues to see that risks are balanced for inflation.

  • COLOMBIA – Weak labor market data in 3Q19  

    Weakness signs in the labor market mean robust consumption is not guaranteed

  • MEXICO – 3Q19 Public Finances supported by one-off revenues  

    The MoF increased the expected use of the stabilization fund to offset lower revenues in 2019

  • CHILE – Milder manufacturing bounce-back in September  

    We expect Imacec growth of 3.6% in September

  • CHILE – Labor market looked rosy in 3Q19  

    Risks to the unemployment rate are tilted to the upside given the recent events

  • CHILE – Tibia recuperación de la manufactura en septiembre  

    Vemos un Imacec de 3,6% para septiembre

  • CHILE – El mercado laboral se vio bien en el 3T19  

    Los riesgos están inclinados al alza para el desempleo dados los eventos recientes.

  • MEXICO – Weak 3Q19 GDP flash estimate  

    Services, the largest sector of the economy, slowed down in 3Q19

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improvement moderated in 3Q19  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy is starting to weigh on Mexico’s manufacturing exports

  • MEXICO – Retail sales improved in August, but momentum is soft  

    The real wage bill is still helping to smooth the slowdown in private consumption

  • MEXICO – Inflation stood practically unchanged, with core slowing down gradually  

    Headline inflation stood close to Banxico’s central target

  • ARGENTINA – Activity declined in August  

    We expect activity to weaken further as the October presidential elections approach.

  • CHILE – Reunión de Política Monetaria: Recorte de 25pb, vendrían más  

    El consejo dejó abierta la puerta para incrementar el estímulo monetario.

  • MEXICO – August GDP improved, but momentum remained soft  

    Services and manufacturing sectors decelerated, while mining and construction output recovered

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: 25-bp cut, more to come  

    The board left the door open to increasing the size of the monetary stimulus

  • ARGENTINA – Record trade surplus in September  

    Exports picked up, amid sluggish imports.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Fiscal impulse  

    We have adjusted our fiscal deficit projection to 2.3% of GDP (from -1.5%).


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