Itaú BBA - Macro Latam
  • CHILE – Trade balance still affected by social unrest in November  

    The expected internal demand collapse will lead to a swift narrowing of the current account balance next year.

  • CHILE – Balanza comercial de noviembre continúa afectada por los eventos recientes.  

    El esperado deterioro de la demanda interna, en medio de un escenario externo en términos generales

  • MEXICO – CPI decelerated further, with annual core inflation falling slowly  

    Slow core inflation deceleration reinforce a gradual monetary easing cycle for now

  • CHILE – Inflación aún bien comportada en noviembre  

    Los transables están empezando a empujar la inflación al alza

  • COLOMBIA – Controlled inflation in November as shocks start to unwind  

    So far, only a mild pass-through from the depreciation of the Colombian peso has materialized

  • CHILE – Still well-behaved inflation in November  

    Tradable prices are starting to push inflation up

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained weak in 3Q19  

    Uncertainties facing the economy are weighing on investment

  • CHILE – Informe de Política Monetaria: Proyecciones de inflación más alta invocan cautela  

    Movimientos de tasas dependerán del desempeño de la actividad, mercado laboral, tipo de cambio y expectativas de inflación

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: High inflation forecast bodes caution  

    Rate moves will depend on the evolution of activity, the labor market, exchange rate and inflation expectations

  • CHILE – Reunión de Política Monetaria: Tasas estables por un tiempo  

    Una trayectoria de inflación incierta en medio de presiones opuestas inspiró cautela.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable for some time  

    An uncertain inflation path amid opposing pressures inspired caution

  • CHILE – Marcada contracción de las ventas minoristas, con perspectivas pesimistas  

    Con el sentimiento del consumidor en mínimos históricos y el mercado laboral debilitándose, el consumo se moderará hacia adelante.

  • CHILE – Stark retail sales contraction, while outlook is bleak  

    With consumer confidence at historic lows and the labor market set to loosen, consumption will slow significantly ahead

  • PERU – Inflation surprises to the upside in November, but remained low  

    Headline and core annual inflation remained practically unchanged

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit widens in 3Q19  

    A wide CAD would leave the Colombian peso vulnerable to the domestic uncertainties.

  • CHILE – Worst activity performance since global financial crisis  

    Despite falling activity, FX volatility will get in the way of rate cuts this month.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market weakness persists in October  

    Rising unemployment rate and a possible labor market reform are key discussion points in the current social protests

  • CHILE – Peor desempeño de la actividad desde la crisis financiera internacional  

    Pese a la caída de la actividad, volatilidad cambiaria limitará el espacio para recortes de tasa este mes.

  • CHILE – Importante caída de manufactura en el primer registro afectado por los eventos recientes  

    El menor registro histórico de confianza empresarial y la débil actividad apuntan a que no habría recuperación del crecimiento en 2020.

  • CHILE – El mercado laboral se debilita  

    Los datos de la RM de Santiago reflejan mejor el impacto de los eventos recientes.

  • CHILE – Labor market weakening begins  

    The greater Santiago data better reflects the impact of recent events.

  • CHILE – Large manufacturing drop in first major protest-affected data print  

    Record-low business confidence and weak activity point at no recovery of growth next year.

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy minutes: a gradual easing cycle  

    Strong divisions within the board remain.

  • MEXICO – Stable trade balance in October  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy is weighing on manufacturing exports

  • MEXICO – 3Q19 Inflation Report: Lower GDP growth forecasts and higher short-term core inflation  

    Core inflation projection shows a delay in its deceleration trend, compared to the past inflation report

  • ARGENTINA – Back to recession in 3Q19  

    We revised our GDP forecast down to a contraction of 2.9% for this year (from -2.5% in our previous scenario).

  • MEXICO – Above market expectations retail sales in September  

    At the margin, retail sales improved on a monthly basis, but momentum was soft in 3Q19

  • MEXICO – Annual GDP contracted in 3Q19  

    Past GDP revisions show the economy was in a mild technical recession in 1H19

  • MEXICO – Current account deficit (CAD) remained narrow in 3Q19  

    Net direct investment was enough to cover the CAD

  • MEXICO – Inflation accelerated slightly, with core slowing down gradually  

    Inflation came in broadly in line with market expectations.

  • PERU – GDP improved in 3Q19, while fiscal and external deficits remained narrow  

    Final domestic demand improved in 3Q19, supported by a recovery in private demand and public consumption

  • ARGENTINA – Solid trade surplus in October  

    Larger-than-expected trade surpluses over the last few months led to an upward revision of our forecast for 2019.

  • CHILE – Amplio déficit de cuenta corriente en el 3T19  

    Débil demanda doméstica, el ajuste del tipo de cambio y alguna recuperación de la demanda global ayudarán al ajuste de las cuentas externas de Chile.

  • CHILE – Large current account deficit in 3Q19  

    Domestic demand wekaness, the exchange rate adjustment and some global recovery will favor the external account adjustment in Chile

  • CHILE – Growth peaked in 3Q19 prior to protests  

    Drivers of growth in the quarter will likely fade in coming quarters.

  • CHILE – El crecimiento alcanzó su punto máximo en el 3T19 previo a los eventos recientes  

    Pesimismo privado, moderación en el crecimiento del crédito e incertidumbre afectarán al crecimiento hasta 2020.

  • COLOMBIA – Favorable activity dynamics in 3Q19  

    Robust investment and consumption will drive growth of 3.3% this year (2.6% in 2018).

  • COLOMBIA – Weakening exports amid solidifying imports widen trade deficit in 3Q19  

    Robust domestic demand amid weak global activity suggests the current account deficit will remain wide ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Lower than expected headline inflation in October  

    Exchange rate controls have helped to moderate inflation in the basket of goods.

  • MEXICO – Banxico cut 25-bp the policy rate in another split decision  

    Marginal changes to the statement, with a dovish tone

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Second round  

    The Frente Amplio won in October, but the opposition joins with an eye on the second round.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Central Bank has completed easing cycle  

    Central Bank kept policy rate unchanged in October

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: In the midst of uncertainty  

    We believe the output gap would widen further, justifying lower rates

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Segundo turno  

    El Frente Amplio ganó en octubre, pero la oposición se une con un ojo en el segundo turno.

  • MEXICO – 3Q19 Industrial production improved, but momentum was weak  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy is weighting on Mexico’s manufacturing sector

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: En medio de la incertidumbre  

    Creemos que la brecha del producto se ampliará aún más, justificando tasas más bajas.

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Banco central finaliza ciclo de recortes de tasa  

    El banco central mantuvo sin cambios la tasa de política monetaria en octubre.

  • CHILE – Higher-than-expected October inflation  

    A widening output gap would likely keep demand-side inflationary pressures contained ahead

  • CHILE – Un déficit comercial en octubre conforme disturbios limitan la actividad  

    La incertidumbre doméstica incidiría negativamente en el dinamismo de las importaciones

  • MEXICO – CPI remained stable, while core inflation slowly declines  

    Core inflation slowdown increases the odds of Banxico frontloading the easing cycle

  • CHILE – October trade deficit as protests halt activity  

    Domestic uncertainty would lead to negative effect on import dynamics, while exports could benefit from improving global sentiment

  • MEXICO – Gross fixed investment recovered, but momentum is still weak  

    Construction investment supported the recovery

  • COLOMBIA – Higher inflation in October, but stable core  

    Unwinding of supply-side shocks, a negative output gap and controlled inflation expectations would aid the convergence towards 3% next year.

  • CHILE – Decepcionantes ventas minoristas en septiembre  

    Con la caída en la confianza del consumidor, la desaceleración del crecimiento del crédito y disrupciones en operaciones, el consumo se desaceleraría aún más.

  • CHILE – Disappointing retail sales in September  

    With consumer confidence falling, credit growth slowing and supply-side shocks affecting operations, consumption is set to slump further.

  • CHILE – Weaker-than-expected activity ahead of protest effect  

    With activity set to slump in 4Q19, growth this year is likely to come in closer to 2% (2.2% previously expected)

  • CHILE – Actividad más débil de lo esperado previo a los eventos recientes  

    La esperada disminución de la actividad en el 4T19 implica que el crecimiento de este año se acercaría al 2% (2,2% previamente esperado).

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: No game changer  

    Stable rates remain the status quo

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Staying on hold and wrapping up the reserve accumulation program  

    The board continues to see that risks are balanced for inflation.

  • COLOMBIA – Weak labor market data in 3Q19  

    Weakness signs in the labor market mean robust consumption is not guaranteed

  • MEXICO – 3Q19 Public Finances supported by one-off revenues  

    The MoF increased the expected use of the stabilization fund to offset lower revenues in 2019

  • CHILE – Milder manufacturing bounce-back in September  

    We expect Imacec growth of 3.6% in September

  • CHILE – Labor market looked rosy in 3Q19  

    Risks to the unemployment rate are tilted to the upside given the recent events

  • CHILE – Tibia recuperación de la manufactura en septiembre  

    Vemos un Imacec de 3,6% para septiembre

  • CHILE – El mercado laboral se vio bien en el 3T19  

    Los riesgos están inclinados al alza para el desempleo dados los eventos recientes.

  • MEXICO – Weak 3Q19 GDP flash estimate  

    Services, the largest sector of the economy, slowed down in 3Q19

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improvement moderated in 3Q19  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy is starting to weigh on Mexico’s manufacturing exports

  • MEXICO – Retail sales improved in August, but momentum is soft  

    The real wage bill is still helping to smooth the slowdown in private consumption

  • MEXICO – Inflation stood practically unchanged, with core slowing down gradually  

    Headline inflation stood close to Banxico’s central target

  • ARGENTINA – Activity declined in August  

    We expect activity to weaken further as the October presidential elections approach.

  • CHILE – Reunión de Política Monetaria: Recorte de 25pb, vendrían más  

    El consejo dejó abierta la puerta para incrementar el estímulo monetario.

  • MEXICO – August GDP improved, but momentum remained soft  

    Services and manufacturing sectors decelerated, while mining and construction output recovered

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: 25-bp cut, more to come  

    The board left the door open to increasing the size of the monetary stimulus

  • ARGENTINA – Record trade surplus in September  

    Exports picked up, amid sluggish imports.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Fiscal impulse  

    We have adjusted our fiscal deficit projection to 2.3% of GDP (from -1.5%).

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit in August  

    Solid import growth and a double-digit export drop led to the largest August trade deficit on record.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Elections in sight  

    Available surveys point to two rounds of voting as the most likely scenario.

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Elecciones a la vista  

    Las elecciones presidenciales tendrán lugar el próximo 27 de octubre

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Impulso fiscal  

    El gobierno hace uso de la política fiscal y aumenta el gasto para mantener la demanda interna

  • ARGENTINA – Further fiscal consolidation will be challenging  

    We don´t expect more fiscal consolidation ahead.

  • ARGENTINA – As anticipated, inflation spiked in September  

    Disinflation is likely to be slow and bumpy.

  • COLOMBIA – Retail sales drive activity in August  

    Surprisingly robust private consumption means growth this year could exceed our 3% call.

  • PERU – Economic activity recovered in August  

    Recovery in economic activity was supported by an improvement of the natural resources sector.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production surprised to the upside in August, but trend remains weak  

    Industrial production improved supported by a recovery in construction and mining output, but momentum remained soft

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes: a still cautious forward guidance  

    The acceleration of the easing cycle will depend on the favorable evolution of core inflation

  • MEXICO – September CPI fell further, while core inflation slowed slightly  

    We now expect inflation to end 2019 at 2.9%

  • CHILE – Gran sorpresa a la baja del IPC de septiembre  

    El registro consolida nuestra visión de un recorte de 25 pb a la tasa de política monetaria (TPM) llevándola a 1,75% a finales de este mes

  • CHILE – Large downside CPI surprise in September  

    The inflation data consolidates our view of a 25-bp rate cut, to 1.75% later this month

  • CHILE – Small trade surplus in 3Q19  

    The trade data is negative for activity, as it points to weak external and internal demand

  • CHILE – Modesto superávit comercial en el 3T19  

    Los datos de comercio son negativos para la actividad, ya que apuntarían a una débil demanda externa e interna

  • COLOMBIA – Annual inflation rises further  

    The unwinding of food price shocks, the still-negative output gap and controlled inflation expectations would support disinflation next year

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained soft in July  

    Uncertainty surrounding the economy and delays in capital expenditure execution weigh on investment

  • CHILE – Sorpresivas ventas minoristas en agosto  

    Actividad sorprendentemente favorable de agosto significa que el crecimiento podría superar nuestro pronóstico del 2,2% para el año.

  • CHILE - Upside retail surprise in August  

    Surprisingly upbeat August activity means growth could come in a tick above our 2.2% forecast for the year.

  • CHILE - Larger-than-expected activity boost in August  

    Given the strong August print, growth could come in above our 2.2% forecast this year (4% last year).

  • PERU – September’s inflation decelerated further  

    Inflation crossed below the BCRP central inflation target of 2%.

  • CHILE – Crecimiento de actividad mayor al esperado en agosto  

    Dado el robusto registro de agosto, el crecimiento podría superar nuestro pronóstico de 2,2% este año (4% el año pasado).

  • CHILE – Weak August activity, despite mining recovery  

    Below potential growth reinforces the expectation of another rate cut in October.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: In observation mode  

    Wait-and-see mode as the board observes the development of high inflation, resilient activity and a moderating labor market.

  • COLOMBIA – Sharp unemployment rise in August  

    We expect the unemployment rate to average 10.3% in 2019, from 9.7% for 2018.

  • CHILE – El desempleo cae en agosto en medio del impulso fiscal  

    Conforme el mercado laboral refleje las holguras de la economía, reforzará la visión de que las presiones inflacionarias de demanda son bajas.

  • CHILE – Débil actividad en agosto, pese a recuperación minera  

    Crecimiento bajo potencial refuerza la expectativa de otro recorte de tasas en octubre

  • CHILE – Unemployment ticks down in August amid fiscal boost  

    As the labor market reflects economic slack, it would bolster views that demand-side inflationary pressures remain low

  • ARGENTINA – Activity recovery will not last  

    We expect another round of weak activity indicators in the coming months.

  • MEXICO – Banxico cuts the policy rate by 25-bps, as expected; Two board members vote for a 50-bp cut  

    The probability of a lower policy rate than that we currently forecast is increasing.

  • ARGENTINA – Stronger-than-expected trade surplus in August  

    The decline in imports suggests a new round of weak activity following the primary election.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Another cut as soon as October?  

    Large uncertainty favors more gradual cuts ahead, with incoming data key behind the timing of the next movement.

  • ARGENTINA – Treasury posts new primary surplus, but further fiscal consolidation will be challenging  

    We recently raised our primary fiscal deficit forecast for this year to 0.8% of GDP.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable, but less expansionary, rates  

    We expect stable rates for the remainder of the year, but the balance of risks titled towards rate cuts rather than hikes ahead.

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: ¿Otro recorte en octubre?  

    Alta incertidumbre favorece recortes graduales, y la evolución de los datos económicos será clave para definir el momento del próximo movimiento.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand deteriorated in 2Q19  

    Public and private investment deteriorated, while private consumption expanded at a soft pace

  • ARGENTINA – Modest GDP growth in 2Q19 will be short-lived.  

    No relief for the economic downturn. We recently adjusted our GDP forecasts down to -2.5% (from -1.4%).

  • COLOMBIA – Wider trade deficit in July  

    A challenging global scenario means Colombia’s external account imbalances are likely to persist

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Activity likely to contract in 2019  

    We expect a 1.5% GDP contraction this year (from +1% previously).

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: We expect slower growth  

    We have cut our growth projections for Uruguay to zero growth in 2019 (from 0.5%) and 1.5% in 2020 (from 2%).

  • PERU – Economic activity improved in July, but remained weak  

    Economic activity was supported by an improvement in the natural resources sector

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: La actividad se contraería en 2019  

    Esperamos una contracción del PIB de 1,5% este año (desde +1% anteriormente).

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Esperamos menor crecimiento  

    Recortamos nuestra proyección a crecimiento nulo este año (desde 0,5% anteriormente) y a 1,5% en 2020 (2% previamente).

  • PERU – BCRP in data dependent mode  

    Further easing will be dependent on incoming information.

  • COLOMBIA – Retail drives July activity  

    Strong activity momentum, along with rising inflation would lead the central bank to keep rates stable

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation resumed upward trend  

    Consumer prices spiked in August after a new depreciation of the peso.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production deteriorated further in July  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy seems to be starting to weigh on Mexico’s manufacturing sector

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Reality check  

    The government took a first step in debt-restructuring direction.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation decelerates in Mexico  

    Moderating inflation means higher odds of further monetary easing, likely already in September.

  • MEXICO – 2020 Budget: still responsible fiscal targets, but risk of fiscal slippage is high  

    Growth and oil production projections are on the optimistic side

  • MEXICO – August CPI decelerated, while core inflation remains sticky  

    We now expect inflation to end 2019 at 3.3%

  • CHILE – Débiles importaciones generan superávit comercial en agosto  

    Caída de exportaciones junto con débiles importaciones de bienes de consumo y de capital indican que persistiría un desfavorable dinamismo de la actividad

  • CHILE – Weak imports lead to a trade surplus in August  

    Declining manufacturing exports along with weakened consumer and capital goods imports hint at unfavorable activity dynamics.

  • MEXICO – Soft domestic demand in 2Q19  

    Uncertainty surrounding the economy and delays in capital expenditure execution weigh on investment

  • CHILE – Leve alza de la inflación en agosto  

    Pese a las bajas presiones subyacentes, la inflación terminaría este año cerca de la meta

  • COLOMBIA – Downward food inflation surprise in August  

    Inflation, coupled with positive developments on activity and a wide CAD means the policy rate will likely stay at 4,25% in the near term.

  • CHILE – Inflation ticks up in August  

    Despite low core inflationary pressures, headline inflation would end the year close to the target

  • CHILE – Actividad de julio en línea con las expectativas  

    El débil desempeño de la actividad al inicio de año, aumentan la probabilidad de que el crecimiento sea inferior a nuestro pronóstico (2,4%).

  • CHILE – July activity in-line with expectations  

    The sluggish start to the year, along with mixed recovery signs, increase the likelihood of growth below our 2.4% call for 2019

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Further, and even aggressive, easing is possible  

    More rate cuts are likely, but the timing and magnitude of additional easing is uncertain

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: 50-bp rate cut, more could come  

    The September’s decision raises the likelihood that the easing cycle extends beyond 100-bps, taking rates below 2.0%.

  • CHILE – Informe de política monetaria: Una mayor flexibilización, incluso agresiva, es posible  

    Es probable un aumento del estímulo monetario, pero el momento y la magnitud de los recortes son inciertos

  • CHILE – Reunión de Política Monetaria: Recorte de 50 puntos, podrían venir más  

    La decisión de septiembre aumenta la probabilidad de que el ciclo de recortes se extienda más allá de 100 pb, llevando las tasas por debajo del 2,0%.

  • CHILE – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in July  

    The monthly GDP proxy would grow 3.2% in July, as the boost from manufacturing is partly offset by weaker-than-expected consumption data.

  • CHILE – Ventas minoristas más débil de lo esperado en julio  

    Esperamos que el Imacec crezca un 3,2% en julio, ya que el impulso de la manufactura se vería compensado en parte por un consumo más débil de lo esperado.

  • COLOMBIA – Wide, but broadly stable, CAD in 2Q19  

    The elevated CAD, rising headline inflation and the weakening of the COP would prevent the central bank from cutting rates in the short-term

  • PERU – Inflation fell further in August  

    Low inflation increases the odds of the BCRP cutting the policy rate further in the short-term

  • CHILE – Private job drag moderates in July  

    As the growth outlook remains uncertain, we expect job growth to remain contained

  • CHILE – Transitorily higher activity in July  

    Seasonal factors and a low base of comparison aided the activity recovery in the month.

  • CHILE – Empleo privado mejora en julio  

    Puesto que las perspectivas de crecimiento siguen siendo inciertas, esperamos que el crecimiento del empleo permanezca contenido.

  • CHILE – Actividad transitoriamente mejor en julio  

    Factores estacionales y una base de comparación baja ayudaron a la recuperación de la actividad en el mes.

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes: board split also on rate guidance  

    Board members seem to be divided on the monetary forward guidance.

  • MEXICO – 2Q19 Inflation Report: lower headline inflation and growth forecasts  

    The easing cycle is set to continue.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance narrowed, supported by weak internal demand  

    Non-oil imports deteriorated, dragged by a sharp contraction in imports of capital goods.

  • MEXICO – Sharp current account balance improvement in 2Q19  

    Narrower current account was supported by an improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – 2Q19 GDP revised down  

    Mining and construction sectors were the main drags to economic activity

  • PERU – GDP remained soft in 2Q19, with sound fiscal and external accounts  

    Narrower current account was supported by an improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the downside, with core still at a high level  

    Headline inflation decelerated, dragged by non-core prices.

  • ARGENTINA – Mild activity growth in 2Q19  

    There are clear downside risks to our -1.4% GDP growth forecast for this year

  • ARGENTINA – Another strong trade surplus in July  

    The incoming administration will receive lower twin deficits, but the roll-over of debt will be challenging,

  • MEXICO – June’s retail sales deteriorated at the margin  

    The real wage bill is still helping to smooth the slowdown in private consumption

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: We expect less growth  

    The expected recovery for 2H19 would be lower.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Investments would sustain growth  

    New pulp mill boosts growth.

  • CHILE – Investment recovery lifts 2Q19 activity, but to a still-weak pace  

    External headwinds will limit the pace of recovery ahead

  • CHILE – Déficit de cuenta corriente mayor a lo esperado en el 2T19  

    Conforme el precio del cobre se mantenga bajo y la demanda doméstica débil, el déficit de cuenta corriente seguirá amplio.

  • CHILE – Recuperación de la inversión lidera la actividad del 2T19, pero a un ritmo aún débil  

    Vientos en contra del entorno global limitarán el ritmo de recuperación

  • CHILE – Larger-than-expected current account deficit in 2Q19  

    As copper prices stay low and domestic demand remains weak, we see the CAD remaining wide

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: In a split decision, the easing cycle begins  

    We now see the policy rate ending this year at 7.25%

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation slowdown will not last  

    Inflation is likely to resume an upward trend

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Inversiones sostendrían el crecimiento  

    Aumentamos nuestra proyección de crecimiento para el año que viene a 2% desde 1,5% anteriormente.

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Esperamos menor crecimiento  

    Corregimos a la baja nuestra proyección de crecimiento a 1% para este año desde 1,7% anteriormente.

  • COLOMBIA – Robust activity in 2Q19  

    Local and global headwinds make a sustained recovery in 2H19 unlikely.

  • PERU – Economic activity deteriorated in 2Q19  

    Non-natural and natural resources sectors decelerated in 2Q19

  • COLOMBIA – Mixed activity data in June  

    A meaningful activity acceleration in 2H19 remains elusive as consumer confidence stays low, the labor market weak and global growth slows.

  • COLOMBIA – Weakening imports, but still a wide trade deficit  

    With moderating global demand and low oil prices, we expect the CAD to remain wide, at 4.3% of GDP this year

  • MEXICO – Industrial production fell further in 2Q19  

    Oil and construction output dragged industrial production

  • PERU – Monetary Policy Decision: the BCRP cut its policy rate 25-bp  

    The BCRP didn’t close the door for additional cuts, but they are not granted.

  • CHILE – Unsurprising July inflation print favors a 25bp rate cut in September  

    Low core measures and our diffusion index point at contained inflationary pressures

  • CHILE – Registro inflacionario de julio sin sorpresa favorece recorte 25 pb en septiembre  

    Baja inflación subyacente y nuestro índice de difusión indican que las presiones inflacionarias están contenidas

  • MEXICO – July’s CPI decelerated, but core remains sticky  

    Core inflation still sticky

  • CHILE – Déficit comercial en julio  

    La débil demanda mundial en medio de una demanda interna moderada conduciría a un déficit de cuenta corriente de 3,2% del PIB

  • CHILE – Trade deficit in July  

    Weak global demand amid limited domestic demand would keep the CAD above 3% of GDP

  • COLOMBIA – Upside inflation surprise in July  

    The intensity and endurance of the supply shocks likely mean that inflation would end this year at 3.75%.

  • MEXICO – Gross fixed investment deteriorated further in May  

    Lingering uncertainties surrounding Mexico’s economy and transition effect will weight on investment outlook

  • CHILE – La actividad decepciona en el 2T19  

    A pesar de una base de comparación más favorable y de las medidas adicionales de estímulo monetario y fiscal, los vientos en contra limitarían la recuperación

  • CHILE – Activity disappoints in 2Q19  

    Despite a more favorable base of comparison and added stimulus measures, sufficient headwinds would limit the recovery ahead

  • COLOMBIA - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Standing its ground  

    The board likely needs to see confirmation of weaker activity and a looser global monetary stance, so rate cuts in the near term seem unlikely

  • CHILE – Débil consumo en el 2T19  

    La baja confianza empresarial, un escenario externo volátil, los precios del cobre contenidos y un mercado laboral débil han resultado en una desaceleración

  • CHILE – Weak consumption in 2Q19  

    Low private confidence, a volatile external scenario, contained copper prices, and a weak labor market have resulted in an activity slowdown in 1H19

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: Un recorte en septiembre  

    La probabilidad de un recorte de 50 pb ha aumentado, a raíz de los acontecimientos recientes.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: A September cut  

    The likelihood of a larger 50-bp cut in September has increased following recent developments

  • PERU – Core and headline inflation decelerated in July, increasing the odds of a rate cut in August  

    Widening output gap conditions curb inflationary pressures

  • CHILE – Manufactura obstaculiza la actividad en junio  

    Decepcionante manufactura apunta a debilidad en el consumo y la inversión, en línea con nuestra expectativa de crecimiento de 2,4% este año.

  • MEXICO – Weak GDP flash estimate in 2Q19  

    Although sequential GDP improved, economic activity remained soft in 2Q19

  • MEXICO – 2Q19 Public Finances consistent with AMLO’s austerity measures  

    The MoF is considering using the stabilization fund to offset lower revenues in 2019

  • CHILE – Manufacturing hampers activity in June  

    Poor manufacturing points to weak consumption and investment, in line with our 2,4% growth forecast for the year.

  • CHILE – Underwhelming labor market dynamics in 2Q19  

    Despite stable unemployment, poor quality of job creation and falling participation are risks to consumption growth ahead.

  • CHILE – Mercado laboral decepciona en el 2T19  

    Pese al desempleo estable, la baja calidad de la creación de empleo y la menor participación son un riesgo para el crecimiento del consumo hacia adelante.

  • COLOMBIA – Weak labor market in 2Q19  

    In 2Q19, the participation rate dropped to the lowest level since 2Q10, containing a further surge in the unemployment rate

  • MEXICO – Weak economic activity in May  

    Monthly GDP was dragged by construction and mining

  • ARGENTINA – Solid trade surplus in June  

    The shift in the trade balance is driven by falling imports.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in 2Q19 supported by weak import growth  

    At the margin, non-oil imports deteriorated, reflecting weakness in internal demand.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: No signal of a rate cut (yet)  

    Confirmation of weaker-than-expected activity and a the looser global monetary stance needed before lowering rates

  • ARGENTINA – Activity continued to improve in May  

    The negative impact of the severe drought in 2018 is in the past.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside in May  

    The real wage bill is a buffer for private consumption


      < Volver