Itaú BBA - Macro Latam
  • ARGENTINA – Record trade surplus in September  

    Exports picked up, amid sluggish imports.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Fiscal impulse  

    We have adjusted our fiscal deficit projection to 2.3% of GDP (from -1.5%).

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit in August  

    Solid import growth and a double-digit export drop led to the largest August trade deficit on record.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Elections in sight  

    Available surveys point to two rounds of voting as the most likely scenario.

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Elecciones a la vista  

    Las elecciones presidenciales tendrán lugar el próximo 27 de octubre

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Impulso fiscal  

    El gobierno hace uso de la política fiscal y aumenta el gasto para mantener la demanda interna

  • ARGENTINA – Further fiscal consolidation will be challenging  

    We don´t expect more fiscal consolidation ahead.

  • ARGENTINA – As anticipated, inflation spiked in September  

    Disinflation is likely to be slow and bumpy.

  • COLOMBIA – Retail sales drive activity in August  

    Surprisingly robust private consumption means growth this year could exceed our 3% call.

  • PERU – Economic activity recovered in August  

    Recovery in economic activity was supported by an improvement of the natural resources sector.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production surprised to the upside in August, but trend remains weak  

    Industrial production improved supported by a recovery in construction and mining output, but momentum remained soft

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes: a still cautious forward guidance  

    The acceleration of the easing cycle will depend on the favorable evolution of core inflation

  • MEXICO – September CPI fell further, while core inflation slowed slightly  

    We now expect inflation to end 2019 at 2.9%

  • CHILE – Gran sorpresa a la baja del IPC de septiembre  

    El registro consolida nuestra visión de un recorte de 25 pb a la tasa de política monetaria (TPM) llevándola a 1,75% a finales de este mes

  • CHILE – Large downside CPI surprise in September  

    The inflation data consolidates our view of a 25-bp rate cut, to 1.75% later this month

  • CHILE – Small trade surplus in 3Q19  

    The trade data is negative for activity, as it points to weak external and internal demand

  • CHILE – Modesto superávit comercial en el 3T19  

    Los datos de comercio son negativos para la actividad, ya que apuntarían a una débil demanda externa e interna

  • COLOMBIA – Annual inflation rises further  

    The unwinding of food price shocks, the still-negative output gap and controlled inflation expectations would support disinflation next year

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained soft in July  

    Uncertainty surrounding the economy and delays in capital expenditure execution weigh on investment

  • CHILE – Sorpresivas ventas minoristas en agosto  

    Actividad sorprendentemente favorable de agosto significa que el crecimiento podría superar nuestro pronóstico del 2,2% para el año.

  • CHILE - Upside retail surprise in August  

    Surprisingly upbeat August activity means growth could come in a tick above our 2.2% forecast for the year.

  • CHILE - Larger-than-expected activity boost in August  

    Given the strong August print, growth could come in above our 2.2% forecast this year (4% last year).

  • PERU – September’s inflation decelerated further  

    Inflation crossed below the BCRP central inflation target of 2%.

  • CHILE – Crecimiento de actividad mayor al esperado en agosto  

    Dado el robusto registro de agosto, el crecimiento podría superar nuestro pronóstico de 2,2% este año (4% el año pasado).

  • CHILE – Weak August activity, despite mining recovery  

    Below potential growth reinforces the expectation of another rate cut in October.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: In observation mode  

    Wait-and-see mode as the board observes the development of high inflation, resilient activity and a moderating labor market.

  • COLOMBIA – Sharp unemployment rise in August  

    We expect the unemployment rate to average 10.3% in 2019, from 9.7% for 2018.

  • CHILE – El desempleo cae en agosto en medio del impulso fiscal  

    Conforme el mercado laboral refleje las holguras de la economía, reforzará la visión de que las presiones inflacionarias de demanda son bajas.

  • CHILE – Débil actividad en agosto, pese a recuperación minera  

    Crecimiento bajo potencial refuerza la expectativa de otro recorte de tasas en octubre

  • CHILE – Unemployment ticks down in August amid fiscal boost  

    As the labor market reflects economic slack, it would bolster views that demand-side inflationary pressures remain low

  • ARGENTINA – Activity recovery will not last  

    We expect another round of weak activity indicators in the coming months.

  • MEXICO – Banxico cuts the policy rate by 25-bps, as expected; Two board members vote for a 50-bp cut  

    The probability of a lower policy rate than that we currently forecast is increasing.

  • ARGENTINA – Stronger-than-expected trade surplus in August  

    The decline in imports suggests a new round of weak activity following the primary election.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Another cut as soon as October?  

    Large uncertainty favors more gradual cuts ahead, with incoming data key behind the timing of the next movement.

  • ARGENTINA – Treasury posts new primary surplus, but further fiscal consolidation will be challenging  

    We recently raised our primary fiscal deficit forecast for this year to 0.8% of GDP.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable, but less expansionary, rates  

    We expect stable rates for the remainder of the year, but the balance of risks titled towards rate cuts rather than hikes ahead.

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: ¿Otro recorte en octubre?  

    Alta incertidumbre favorece recortes graduales, y la evolución de los datos económicos será clave para definir el momento del próximo movimiento.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand deteriorated in 2Q19  

    Public and private investment deteriorated, while private consumption expanded at a soft pace

  • ARGENTINA – Modest GDP growth in 2Q19 will be short-lived.  

    No relief for the economic downturn. We recently adjusted our GDP forecasts down to -2.5% (from -1.4%).

  • COLOMBIA – Wider trade deficit in July  

    A challenging global scenario means Colombia’s external account imbalances are likely to persist

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Activity likely to contract in 2019  

    We expect a 1.5% GDP contraction this year (from +1% previously).

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: We expect slower growth  

    We have cut our growth projections for Uruguay to zero growth in 2019 (from 0.5%) and 1.5% in 2020 (from 2%).

  • PERU – Economic activity improved in July, but remained weak  

    Economic activity was supported by an improvement in the natural resources sector

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: La actividad se contraería en 2019  

    Esperamos una contracción del PIB de 1,5% este año (desde +1% anteriormente).

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Esperamos menor crecimiento  

    Recortamos nuestra proyección a crecimiento nulo este año (desde 0,5% anteriormente) y a 1,5% en 2020 (2% previamente).

  • PERU – BCRP in data dependent mode  

    Further easing will be dependent on incoming information.

  • COLOMBIA – Retail drives July activity  

    Strong activity momentum, along with rising inflation would lead the central bank to keep rates stable

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation resumed upward trend  

    Consumer prices spiked in August after a new depreciation of the peso.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production deteriorated further in July  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy seems to be starting to weigh on Mexico’s manufacturing sector

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Reality check  

    The government took a first step in debt-restructuring direction.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation decelerates in Mexico  

    Moderating inflation means higher odds of further monetary easing, likely already in September.

  • MEXICO – 2020 Budget: still responsible fiscal targets, but risk of fiscal slippage is high  

    Growth and oil production projections are on the optimistic side

  • MEXICO – August CPI decelerated, while core inflation remains sticky  

    We now expect inflation to end 2019 at 3.3%

  • CHILE – Débiles importaciones generan superávit comercial en agosto  

    Caída de exportaciones junto con débiles importaciones de bienes de consumo y de capital indican que persistiría un desfavorable dinamismo de la actividad

  • CHILE – Weak imports lead to a trade surplus in August  

    Declining manufacturing exports along with weakened consumer and capital goods imports hint at unfavorable activity dynamics.

  • MEXICO – Soft domestic demand in 2Q19  

    Uncertainty surrounding the economy and delays in capital expenditure execution weigh on investment

  • CHILE – Leve alza de la inflación en agosto  

    Pese a las bajas presiones subyacentes, la inflación terminaría este año cerca de la meta

  • COLOMBIA – Downward food inflation surprise in August  

    Inflation, coupled with positive developments on activity and a wide CAD means the policy rate will likely stay at 4,25% in the near term.

  • CHILE – Inflation ticks up in August  

    Despite low core inflationary pressures, headline inflation would end the year close to the target

  • CHILE – Actividad de julio en línea con las expectativas  

    El débil desempeño de la actividad al inicio de año, aumentan la probabilidad de que el crecimiento sea inferior a nuestro pronóstico (2,4%).

  • CHILE – July activity in-line with expectations  

    The sluggish start to the year, along with mixed recovery signs, increase the likelihood of growth below our 2.4% call for 2019

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Further, and even aggressive, easing is possible  

    More rate cuts are likely, but the timing and magnitude of additional easing is uncertain

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: 50-bp rate cut, more could come  

    The September’s decision raises the likelihood that the easing cycle extends beyond 100-bps, taking rates below 2.0%.

  • CHILE – Informe de política monetaria: Una mayor flexibilización, incluso agresiva, es posible  

    Es probable un aumento del estímulo monetario, pero el momento y la magnitud de los recortes son inciertos

  • CHILE – Reunión de Política Monetaria: Recorte de 50 puntos, podrían venir más  

    La decisión de septiembre aumenta la probabilidad de que el ciclo de recortes se extienda más allá de 100 pb, llevando las tasas por debajo del 2,0%.

  • CHILE – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in July  

    The monthly GDP proxy would grow 3.2% in July, as the boost from manufacturing is partly offset by weaker-than-expected consumption data.

  • CHILE – Ventas minoristas más débil de lo esperado en julio  

    Esperamos que el Imacec crezca un 3,2% en julio, ya que el impulso de la manufactura se vería compensado en parte por un consumo más débil de lo esperado.

  • COLOMBIA – Wide, but broadly stable, CAD in 2Q19  

    The elevated CAD, rising headline inflation and the weakening of the COP would prevent the central bank from cutting rates in the short-term

  • PERU – Inflation fell further in August  

    Low inflation increases the odds of the BCRP cutting the policy rate further in the short-term

  • CHILE – Private job drag moderates in July  

    As the growth outlook remains uncertain, we expect job growth to remain contained

  • CHILE – Transitorily higher activity in July  

    Seasonal factors and a low base of comparison aided the activity recovery in the month.

  • CHILE – Empleo privado mejora en julio  

    Puesto que las perspectivas de crecimiento siguen siendo inciertas, esperamos que el crecimiento del empleo permanezca contenido.

  • CHILE – Actividad transitoriamente mejor en julio  

    Factores estacionales y una base de comparación baja ayudaron a la recuperación de la actividad en el mes.

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes: board split also on rate guidance  

    Board members seem to be divided on the monetary forward guidance.

  • MEXICO – 2Q19 Inflation Report: lower headline inflation and growth forecasts  

    The easing cycle is set to continue.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance narrowed, supported by weak internal demand  

    Non-oil imports deteriorated, dragged by a sharp contraction in imports of capital goods.

  • MEXICO – Sharp current account balance improvement in 2Q19  

    Narrower current account was supported by an improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – 2Q19 GDP revised down  

    Mining and construction sectors were the main drags to economic activity

  • PERU – GDP remained soft in 2Q19, with sound fiscal and external accounts  

    Narrower current account was supported by an improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the downside, with core still at a high level  

    Headline inflation decelerated, dragged by non-core prices.

  • ARGENTINA – Mild activity growth in 2Q19  

    There are clear downside risks to our -1.4% GDP growth forecast for this year

  • ARGENTINA – Another strong trade surplus in July  

    The incoming administration will receive lower twin deficits, but the roll-over of debt will be challenging,

  • MEXICO – June’s retail sales deteriorated at the margin  

    The real wage bill is still helping to smooth the slowdown in private consumption

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: We expect less growth  

    The expected recovery for 2H19 would be lower.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Investments would sustain growth  

    New pulp mill boosts growth.

  • CHILE – Investment recovery lifts 2Q19 activity, but to a still-weak pace  

    External headwinds will limit the pace of recovery ahead

  • CHILE – Déficit de cuenta corriente mayor a lo esperado en el 2T19  

    Conforme el precio del cobre se mantenga bajo y la demanda doméstica débil, el déficit de cuenta corriente seguirá amplio.

  • CHILE – Recuperación de la inversión lidera la actividad del 2T19, pero a un ritmo aún débil  

    Vientos en contra del entorno global limitarán el ritmo de recuperación

  • CHILE – Larger-than-expected current account deficit in 2Q19  

    As copper prices stay low and domestic demand remains weak, we see the CAD remaining wide

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: In a split decision, the easing cycle begins  

    We now see the policy rate ending this year at 7.25%

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation slowdown will not last  

    Inflation is likely to resume an upward trend

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Inversiones sostendrían el crecimiento  

    Aumentamos nuestra proyección de crecimiento para el año que viene a 2% desde 1,5% anteriormente.

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Esperamos menor crecimiento  

    Corregimos a la baja nuestra proyección de crecimiento a 1% para este año desde 1,7% anteriormente.

  • COLOMBIA – Robust activity in 2Q19  

    Local and global headwinds make a sustained recovery in 2H19 unlikely.

  • PERU – Economic activity deteriorated in 2Q19  

    Non-natural and natural resources sectors decelerated in 2Q19

  • COLOMBIA – Mixed activity data in June  

    A meaningful activity acceleration in 2H19 remains elusive as consumer confidence stays low, the labor market weak and global growth slows.

  • COLOMBIA – Weakening imports, but still a wide trade deficit  

    With moderating global demand and low oil prices, we expect the CAD to remain wide, at 4.3% of GDP this year

  • MEXICO – Industrial production fell further in 2Q19  

    Oil and construction output dragged industrial production

  • PERU – Monetary Policy Decision: the BCRP cut its policy rate 25-bp  

    The BCRP didn’t close the door for additional cuts, but they are not granted.

  • CHILE – Unsurprising July inflation print favors a 25bp rate cut in September  

    Low core measures and our diffusion index point at contained inflationary pressures

  • CHILE – Registro inflacionario de julio sin sorpresa favorece recorte 25 pb en septiembre  

    Baja inflación subyacente y nuestro índice de difusión indican que las presiones inflacionarias están contenidas

  • MEXICO – July’s CPI decelerated, but core remains sticky  

    Core inflation still sticky

  • CHILE – Déficit comercial en julio  

    La débil demanda mundial en medio de una demanda interna moderada conduciría a un déficit de cuenta corriente de 3,2% del PIB

  • CHILE – Trade deficit in July  

    Weak global demand amid limited domestic demand would keep the CAD above 3% of GDP

  • COLOMBIA – Upside inflation surprise in July  

    The intensity and endurance of the supply shocks likely mean that inflation would end this year at 3.75%.

  • MEXICO – Gross fixed investment deteriorated further in May  

    Lingering uncertainties surrounding Mexico’s economy and transition effect will weight on investment outlook

  • CHILE – La actividad decepciona en el 2T19  

    A pesar de una base de comparación más favorable y de las medidas adicionales de estímulo monetario y fiscal, los vientos en contra limitarían la recuperación

  • CHILE – Activity disappoints in 2Q19  

    Despite a more favorable base of comparison and added stimulus measures, sufficient headwinds would limit the recovery ahead

  • COLOMBIA - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Standing its ground  

    The board likely needs to see confirmation of weaker activity and a looser global monetary stance, so rate cuts in the near term seem unlikely

  • CHILE – Débil consumo en el 2T19  

    La baja confianza empresarial, un escenario externo volátil, los precios del cobre contenidos y un mercado laboral débil han resultado en una desaceleración

  • CHILE – Weak consumption in 2Q19  

    Low private confidence, a volatile external scenario, contained copper prices, and a weak labor market have resulted in an activity slowdown in 1H19

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: Un recorte en septiembre  

    La probabilidad de un recorte de 50 pb ha aumentado, a raíz de los acontecimientos recientes.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: A September cut  

    The likelihood of a larger 50-bp cut in September has increased following recent developments

  • PERU – Core and headline inflation decelerated in July, increasing the odds of a rate cut in August  

    Widening output gap conditions curb inflationary pressures

  • CHILE – Manufactura obstaculiza la actividad en junio  

    Decepcionante manufactura apunta a debilidad en el consumo y la inversión, en línea con nuestra expectativa de crecimiento de 2,4% este año.

  • MEXICO – Weak GDP flash estimate in 2Q19  

    Although sequential GDP improved, economic activity remained soft in 2Q19

  • MEXICO – 2Q19 Public Finances consistent with AMLO’s austerity measures  

    The MoF is considering using the stabilization fund to offset lower revenues in 2019

  • CHILE – Manufacturing hampers activity in June  

    Poor manufacturing points to weak consumption and investment, in line with our 2,4% growth forecast for the year.

  • CHILE – Underwhelming labor market dynamics in 2Q19  

    Despite stable unemployment, poor quality of job creation and falling participation are risks to consumption growth ahead.

  • CHILE – Mercado laboral decepciona en el 2T19  

    Pese al desempleo estable, la baja calidad de la creación de empleo y la menor participación son un riesgo para el crecimiento del consumo hacia adelante.

  • COLOMBIA – Weak labor market in 2Q19  

    In 2Q19, the participation rate dropped to the lowest level since 2Q10, containing a further surge in the unemployment rate

  • MEXICO – Weak economic activity in May  

    Monthly GDP was dragged by construction and mining

  • ARGENTINA – Solid trade surplus in June  

    The shift in the trade balance is driven by falling imports.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in 2Q19 supported by weak import growth  

    At the margin, non-oil imports deteriorated, reflecting weakness in internal demand.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: No signal of a rate cut (yet)  

    Confirmation of weaker-than-expected activity and a the looser global monetary stance needed before lowering rates

  • ARGENTINA – Activity continued to improve in May  

    The negative impact of the severe drought in 2018 is in the past.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside in May  

    The real wage bill is a buffer for private consumption

  • MEXICO – Inflation falls further, but core remains sticky  

    Headline and core inflation slowed down, remaining below the upper bound of the range around central bank’s target.

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit in May, despite weakening imports  

    Moderating global demand and low oil prices would keep the CAD wide

  • CHILE – Reunión de Política Monetaria: Tono expansivo apunta a recorte en septiembre  

    La decisión de julio se encuentra en línea con nuestra proyección de tasas más bajas (en 2%) a fin de año

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Dovish tone points to September cut  

    July’s decision is in line with our expectation of lower rates (at 2%) by yearend.

  • Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Presidential candidates confirmed  

    Daniel Martínez, Luis Lacalle Pou and Ernesto Talvi will be the main contenders in the presidential elections.

  • Macro Scenario - Paraguay: More room for a rate cut  

    We expect a new monetary policy interest rate cut of 25 bps, leaving the rate at 4.5% for the end of the year.

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Candidatos presidenciales confirmados  

    Las elecciones mostraron un resultado en línea con las últimas encuestas disponibles

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation continued to drop gradually in June  

    Moderate disinflation will likely continue in July

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Más espacio para un recorte de tasas  

    La caída de la inflación y un ambiento externo más favorable abren espacio para un recorte de la tasa de referencia

  • COLOMBIA – Activity surprises to the upside in May  

    Despite firm readings in May, the economy still faces significant headwinds

  • ARGENTINA – Treasury posts primary surplus in 1H19  

    Real expenditure cuts continued to support fiscal consolidation.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production deteriorated further in May  

    At the margin, oil and construction output dragged industrial production

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes confirm a divided board with growing odds of a rate cut in 3Q19  

    The majority of board members are still concerned about the evolution of core inflation

  • MEXICO – June’s CPI slowed down, but with core inflation accelerating  

    Core inflation still uncomfortable

  • CHILE – Baja inflación en junio  

    En línea con nuestras perspectivas de un menor crecimiento este año, no esperamos una notable aceleración de la inflación.

  • COLOMBIA – Core inflation stable at 3% target in June  

    As supply shocks fade, inflation is likely to retreat towards the central bank’s 3% target

  • CHILE – Debilitamiento de la demanda externa y doméstica en 2T19  

    Con crecimiento mundial débil y demanda doméstica limitada, el déficit de cuenta corriente se mantendría estable y amplio.

  • CHILE – Low inflation in June  

    Given our outlook of a growth slowdown this year, we do not expect a notable acceleration of inflation

  • CHILE – Weakening external and domestic demand in 2Q19  

    With low global and internal demand growth, the current account deficit is seen staying broadly stable and wide.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand momentum remained weak in April  

    Lingering uncertainties surrounding Mexico’s economy will weight on investment outlook

  • CHILE – Servicios lideran débil actividad en mayo  

    El sentimiento privado negativo, un escenario mundial incierto y los precios del cobre contenidos justifican nuestro pronóstico de 2,4% de crecimiento este año

  • CHILE – Services leads weak activity in May  

    Downbeat private sentiment amid an uncertain global scenario justify our 2.4% growth call for this year

  • CHILE – Mejora transitoria del comercio en mayo  

    Esperamos otro registro del Imacec por debajo del potencial del 2,3% en mayo (2,1% en abril).

  • CHILE – Temporary retail boost in May  

    We expect another below potential Imacec print (monthly GDP proxy) of 2.3% in May (2.1% in April).

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Arguing for stable rates  

    A widening output gap, controlled inflation and loosening global financial conditions will allow for lower rates ahead.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor dynamics deteriorate in May  

    The loosening labor market, amid depressed sentiment point to weak consumption ahead.

  • CHILE – Manufacturing improves, but mining drag returns in May  

    Weaker growth in machinery and equipment manufacturing hints at an investment slowdown.

  • CHILE – Mercado laboral sin sorpresas en mayo  

    Dado el deterioro de las perspectivas de crecimiento para Chile, es poco probable que el mercado laboral se recupere significativamente.

  • CHILE – La manufactura mejora, pero minería vuelve a caer en mayo  

    El menor crecimiento en la fabricación de maquinaria y equipos sugiere una desaceleración en la inversión.

  • CHILE – Uninspiring labor market in May  

    With the Chilean growth outlook deteriorating, the labor market is unlikely to improve meaningfully.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in May, amid weak import growth  

    At the margin, non-oil imports deteriorated, reflecting weakness in internal demand.

  • ARGENTINA – External deficit correction continues in 2Q19  

    We expect a trade surplus of USD 7.5 billion for 2019

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: A split board votes to keep the reference rate unchanged  

    We expect Banxico to deliver two 25-bp rate cuts in the last quarter of 2019

  • ARGENTINA – Output Rebounded in Early 2Q19  

    We note that the risks to our GDP growth forecast for the year (-1.4%) are still tilted to the downside

  • MEXICO – Economy remained weak in April  

    Services sectors deteriorated further, while manufacturing sector improved somewhat.

  • Macro Scenario - Paraguay: Weakening activity  

    We lowered our GDP forecast for 2019 to 1.7% from 3% due to the drought and a scenario of decelerating regional and global growth.

  • CHILE – Minutas de la reunión de política monetaria: Recortar, la única opción  

    Dado que mantenemos una perspectiva menos optimista para el crecimiento (y, así, una inflación moderada hacia adelante), esperamos mayor estímulo monetario.

  • Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Electoral race kicks off  

    We lowered our GDP growth projections to 0.5% for 2019 (from 0.7%) and 1.5% for 2020 (from 2%).

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable rates, but edging towards easing  

    A widening output gap and controlled inflation would likely lead the central bank to cut rates.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: No option but to cut  

    Given we hold a less optimistic outlook on growth (and hence subdued inflation ahead), we expect further easing.

  • MEXICO – Headline inflation slowed down, but core inflation remains under pressure  

    Headline inflation reached the upper bound of the range around central bank’s target.

  • COLOMBIA – Wider-than-expected trade deficit in April  

    Due to the transitory uptick in imports, further widening of the trade deficit is not expected

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand weakened in 1Q19  

    Public and private spending weakened, while exports decelerated

  • ARGENTINA – GDP continued to drop at the beginning of the year  

    The decline was in line with expectations.

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: La economía se debilita  

    Recortamos nuestra proyección de crecimiento a 1,7% para 2019 desde 3% por la sequía

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Comienza la carrera electoral  

    Redujimos nuestra proyección de crecimiento del PIB para 2019 y 2020 a 0,5% y 1,5% desde 0,7% y 2%, respectivamente,

  • PERU – Weak economic activity in April  

    Economic activity in April was dragged mainly by fishing output

  • COLOMBIA – Slow activity start to 2Q19  

    Weak activity in the first third of the year suggests the impact of weakening global growth could be filtering through to the Colombian

  • PERU – Monetary Policy Decision: rate cuts on the horizon  

    The BCRP highlights softer economic activity

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation declined in May, in line with expectations  

    Lower volatility of the exchange rate and tight monetary policy contributed to a modest disinflation

  • MEXICO – Industrial production remained soft in April  

    Manufacturing output momentum improved somewhat

  • CHILE – Inflation Report: Only a 50-basis point cycle?  

    With growth risks that are seen tilted to the downside, the central bank left the door open for additional easing.

  • CHILE – Superávit comercial menor al esperado en mayo  

    Con debilidad de la demanda global y bajos precios del cobre hacia adelante dado el escalamiento de la guerra comercial, hay riesgos alcistas.

  • MEXICO – May’s CPI was below market expectations, but remained high  

    On an annual basis, headline and core inflation decelerated to still-high levels

  • CHILE – Reunión de política monetaria: Inesperado recorte de 50 puntos base  

    Aun cuando el banco central no anticipa bajas adicionales, vemos espacio para recortes por otros 50pb, llevando la TPM a 2%.

  • CHILE – La inflación se mantiene baja, a pesar de la sorpresa alcista en mayo  

    Conforme bajan los precios del petróleo y la demanda doméstica se mantiene contenida, esperamos un alza gradual de la inflación hacia adelante.

  • CHILE - Monetary Policy Meeting: Surprising 50bp rate cut  

    Although the central bank does not signal further rate cuts, we see room for an additional 50bps of easing to 2%.

  • CHILE – Inflation remains low, despite upside surprise in May  

    As oil price gains unwind, while domestic demand growth is restrained, we expect a gradual inflation rise ahead

  • CHILE – Smaller-than-expected trade surplus in May  

    With reduced global demand and low copper prices ahead amid the escalating trade war, there are upside CAD risks

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation ticks up in May, but still under control  

    Manageable inflation and a widening output gap opens the door for the central bank to consider additional monetary easing

  • MEXICO – Weak gross fixed investment in March  

    A recovery of GFI is unlikely to be lasting due to a high uncertainty environment

  • COLOMBIA – Wider current account deficit in 1Q19  

    Amid a challenging global scenario and terms-of-trade that would likely deteriorate, the current account deficit would remain wide this year.

  • CHILE – Weak activity in April  

    Activity in the primary sector is expected to improve ahead but we see clear downside risks to our 3% growth outlook.

  • CHILE – Actividad débil en abril  

    La actividad en el sector primario mejoraría hacia adelante, pero vemos claros riesgos a la baja para nuestra proyección de crecimiento del 3%.

  • PERU – May’s inflation accelerated, but core inflation was well-behaved  

    CPI was pressured mainly by non-core items

  • CHILE – Consumo e inversión divergen, por ahora  

    El escenario externo cada vez más complejo está dando lugar a una creciente incertidumbre doméstica.

  • CHILE – Consumption decoupling from investment, for now  

    The increasingly complex external scenario is resulting in growing domestic uncertainty

  • CHILE – Actividad débil en abril pese a la mejora en la minería  

    La robusta actividad de maquinaria y equipos, junto a una sólida constricción en el 1T19, son un buen augurio para la recuperación de la inversión

  • CHILE – El crecimiento del empleo se acelera, pero los riesgos persisten  

    A medida que los vientos en contra para las perspectivas de Chile aumentan, es poco probable que la tasa de desempleo se reduzca significativamente.

  • CHILE - Job growth accelerates, but risks ahead  

    As headwinds pick up, it is unlikely the unemployment rate would narrow significantly from the 7% recorded last year

  • CHILE - Weak April activity despite improved mining  

    Robust machinery and equipment activity along with solid construction activity in 1Q19 bodes well for the investment recovery

  • COLOMBIA – Employment sinks in April  

    Falling participation and overall job shedding does not bode well for consumption dynamism ahead.

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes: Closing the doors for rate cuts in the near-term  

    Most members believe there are still significant risks for inflation, despite greater economic activity slack


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