Itaú BBA - Macro Latam

  • ARGENTINA – Economic activity rebounded in July  

    We expect the positive trend to consolidate with the easing of lockdowns in August and September

  • MEXICO – Strong improvement in August trade balance  

    The manufacturing sector is driving the economic recovery

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP recovered further in July   

    The recovery was driven mainly by the manufacturing sector

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Easing cycle extended, but likely concluded; FCL withdrawal anno  

    A split decision and capital flight concerns amid negative real interest rates suggest that the easing cycle likely ended.

  • ARGENTINA – Stronger-than-expected trade surplus in August  

    Imports continued to contract as internal demand remained weak

  • MEXICO – Another higher-than-expected inflation number in 1H September  

    Core goods inflation continues to be at a high level

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: an expected 25-bp rate cut before an easing cycle pause  

    Further monetary easing unlikely at least until the end of this year.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales recovered further in July  

    Still, retail sales are 12% below pre-outbreak levels

  • ARGENTINA – GDP collapsed in 2Q20 on negative effects of lockdowns  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 12.7% this year

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit worsened in August but at a slower pace  

    Our forecast for the primary fiscal deficit this year stands at 6.9% of GDP (from 0.4% in 2019),

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand collapsed in 2Q20  

    Weak domestic demand in 2Q20 reflect the negative shock from COVID-19

  • COLOMBIA – Weak commodity exports contain trade deficit correction in July  

    Recovering, but still low terms-of-trade and dampened global activity mean Colombia’s external account imbalances would persist ahead

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Shock magnitude calls for prolonged monetary impulse  

    Despite the less pessimistic outlook, ample stimulus is set to remain in place

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation rose in August  

    Headline inflation increased in August, in line with expectations and led by core items.

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: La magnitud del choque exige un estímulo moneta  

    A pesar de perspectivas menos negativas, un amplio estímulo monetario se mantendría vigente

  • PERU – Economic recovery continued in July  

    Natural and non-natural resources sectors are supporting the recovery.

  • COLOMBIA – Slower-than-expected activity recovery in July  

    We revised our forecast for the July monthly coincident indicator (ISE) to a decline of 9.2%, only a modest improvement from the 11.1% drop in June.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production recovered further in July  

    The manufacturing sector is the main driver of the recovery

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: The government aims to reduce the fiscal deficit and inflation  

    The budget bill foresees a reduction of the consolidated fiscal deficit to 3.8% of GDP in 2021.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: The government plans to reduce the fiscal deficit gradually  

    The budget bill aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP in 2021, from an estimated 7% for this year.

  • MEXICO – Higher inflation in August  

    Core goods inflation accelerated further

  • MEXICO – 2021 Budget: betting on responsible public finances, but risks remain  

    Optimistic oil production targets and GDP growth estimates risks missing fiscal targets

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: El gobierno plantea reducir el déficit fiscal gradualmente  

    Para ello debe conseguir también la aprobación de un proyecto de convergencia fiscal para 2024.

  • COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation in August  

    A wide output gap and relatively stable currency ought to limit price increases going forward

  • CHILE – Otro amplio superávit comercial en agosto  

    Señales de que la dinámica de las importaciones está mejorando contendría la ampliación del superávit comercial hacia adelante

  • CHILE – Unsurprising August inflation  

    The economic reopening and oil price recovery will counter dampened domestic demand, preventing inflation falling significantly further

  • CHILE – Inflación de agosto sin sorpresas  

    La reapertura de la economía y mayores precios del petróleo compensarán la debilidad de la demanda doméstica, limitando una marcada caída de la inflación.

  • CHILE – Another large trade surplus in August  

    Signs that import dynamics are improving would contain further surplus widening

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: El gobierno apunta a reducir el déficit fiscal y la inflación  

    El presupuesto prevé una reducción del déficit consolidado a 3,8% del PIB en 2021.

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Open for business  

    The central bank enters a wait-and-see mode, assessing the evolution of the economy while leaving the door open for further easing.

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: A chance to turn the page  

    Argentina will seek an agreement with the IMF following a successful debt restructuring with private creditors.

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Policy uncertainty originating in Congress  

    Fiscal accounts deteriorate amid COVID-19 shock

  • CHILE – Informe de Política Monetaria: Lento cierre de la brecha del producto, pese a favorables pro  

    La evolución del escenario económico estará determinada por el avance del Covid-19 y las medidas de contención.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Slow output gap narrowing, despite more optimistic growth forecasts  

    The macroeconomic scenario evolvement continues to be determined by the development of Covid-19 and containment measures

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrowing continues in 2Q20  

    Weak internal demand, recovering terms-of-trade, and a swifter global rebound will aid some further CAD narrowing

  • CHILE – Reunión de Política Monetaria: Reafirmando tasas bajas por mucho tiempo (pero no para siempr  

    La compra de bonos de Tesorería podría ser usado para enfrentar problemas de liquidez, pero no para estimular la demanda agregada.

  • PERU – Below target inflation in August  

    Headline inflation stood below the central bank target for twelfth consecutive month

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Reaffirming low-for-long (but not forever) rates and no government  

    Government bond purchases could be used to address liquidity issues, but not boost aggregate demand.

  • CHILE – July activity confirms recovery is underway  

    Improvements on the health front, along significant monetary and fiscal impulses, are contributing to the recovery.

  • COLOMBIA – Still unfavorable labor market dynamics in July  

    As the mandatory quarantine was extended until the end of August, the labor market recovery is set to be gradual

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A cut before a pause  

    The board is likely to evaluate how the economy progresses, while keeping the door ajar for further easing

  • CHILE – Milder-than-expected activity drop in July  

    With the economy reopening, cash transfers and pension withdrawals materializing, the activity recovery advancing.

  • CHILE – Caída de actividad menor a la esperada en julio  

    Las reaperturas y la materialización de transferencias y retiro de pensiones ayudan a la recuperación de la actividad.

  • CHILE – Weak labor market endures in July  

    Historic job losses, record low participation and reduced work hours are consistent with only a gradual activity recovery scenario

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: further (limited) easing contingent on data  

    While two members advocated for further easing, other two seem more cautious

  • MEXICO – Strong trade balance in July  

    Manufacturing exports recovered at a faster pace than non-oil imports

  • MEXICO – 2Q20 Inflation Report: weaker activity outlook, with temporarily higher inflation  

    Inflation forecasts increased for 2020

  • MEXICO – 2Q20 GDP collapsed, but recovery started in June  

    Still monthly GDP is far below pre-outbreak levels

  • ARGENTINA – Strong trade surplus in July  

    Trade surplus widened in July, on weak imports.

  • MEXICO – Zero current account deficit in 2Q20  

    Net portfolio flows and FDI deteriorated amid uncertainty surrounding the outbreak

  • MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside again in 1H August  

    Core goods CPI still growing above Banxico’s inflation target of 3%

  • MEXICO – Retail sales recovered in June, but momentum is still weak  

    Retail sales are still far below pre-covid levels in February

  • PERU – Deteriorating fiscal accounts and narrow CAD in 2Q20, amid a GDP collapse  

    Higher public debt expected for 2020 amid weak GDP and large fiscal stimulus

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit continued to widen in July  

    .

  • ARGENTINA – Sharp decline in economic activity in 2Q20  

    The lockdown hurt all sectors in 2Q20.

  • CHILE – Historic domestic demand slump in 2Q20  

    Activity is likely to gradually recovery ahead as the economy reopens and the fiscal stimulus reaches firms and consumers

  • CHILE – Large current account surplus in 2Q20  

    Lower oil prices, weaker domestic demand and a mining export increase favored the trade balance in 2Q20

  • CHILE – Amplio superávit de cuenta corriente en 2T20  

    Menores precios del petróleo, la demanda doméstica débil y aumentos en las exportaciones mineras favorecieron a la balanza comercial en el 2T20.

  • CHILE – Histórica caída de la demanda interna en 2T20  

    La actividad se recuperaría gradualmente a medida que la economía se reabre y que el estímulo fiscal llegue a empresas y consumidores.

  • Como manter o teto de gastos?  

    Manter a disciplina fiscal é fundamental

  • PERU – Monthly GDP showed recovered in June by less than expected  

    However, the economy is still far below pre-outbreak levels in February

  • COLOMBIA – Record GDP drop in 2Q20  

    Dynamics within the quarter are in line with a gradual recovery

  • COLOMBIA – Small trade deficit in June  

    With oil prices recovering, further narrowing of the trade deficit is likely ahead.

  • COLOMBIA – Sequential activity recovery in June  

    Downbeat private sentiment, still-low terms-of-trade, significant job losses and elevated uncertainty point to a gradual recovery process ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation was below market expectations in July  

    .

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: preparing for reducing the easing pace  

    We still expect the policy rate to reach 4.00% before the end of 2020

  • MEXICO – Industrial Production’s recovery started in June  

    The recovery was driven mainly by the manufacturing sector

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Central bank to change monetary policy instrument  

    The monetary policy committee has started a process to change the monetary policy instrument.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Harsher-than-expected impact from the lockdown  

    We adjusted our GDP growth forecast down to -3.5%, from -2.6% in our previous scenario

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: La cuarentena goEscenario Macro – Paragulpeó más fuerte que lo esperado   

    El menor crecimiento esperado nos lleva a aumentar nuestra proyección de déficit fiscal.

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Banco central cambiaría instrumento de política monetaria  

    Tanto la inflación como las expectativas inflacionarias se mantienen por encima del rango objetivo del banco central.

  • CHILE – Another large trade surplus in July  

    Imports remain weak as domestic demand weakens and uncertainty restrict investments

  • CHILE – Limited inflationary pressures in July  

    Falling service prices reflective of weak domestic demand

  • CHILE – Presiones inflacionarias contenidas en julio  

    .

  • MEXICO – Inflation accelerated in July  

    Core goods CPI continues to grow above Banxico’s target of 3%

  • CHILE – Otro amplio superávit comercial en julio  

    .

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: A harsh reopening  

    The door to further easing is not closed, but upcoming rate decisions are set to be more data-dependent

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Political confrontation resumes  

    Contagion reaccelerated in Peru as the economy reopens

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Debt restructuring is no guarantee of a brighter outlook  

    The next stop is a renegotiation with the IMF

  • Policy uncertainty amid the pandemic  

    The economic recovery will likely be curbed by policy uncertainty

  • MEXICO – Internal demand remained weak in May  

    May’s figures show a slower deterioration compared to last month

  • COLOMBIA – Milder-than-expected disinflation in July  

    The unwinding of government measures and reopening of the economy would contain downside pressures.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Low-for-long rates  

    An expansionary monetary policy stance is justified by the possibility of a 10% GDP contraction

  • CHILE – La actividad cierra el 2T20 con una mejora marginal  

    Conforme país reabra parcialmente y la evolución del coronavirus consolide una tendencia favorable, esperamos una recuperación de la actividad hacia adelante

  • CHILE – Activity ends 2Q20 on a (marginally) better note  

    As the country partially opens and the evolution of the coronavirus consolidates a favorable trend, an activity recovery is expected ahead

  • CHILE – Still weak June activity points to 14.6% yoy GDP contraction in 2Q20  

    With some easing of lockdown measures unfolding, some gradual economic recovery is anticipated

  • CHILE – Marcado deterioro del mercado laboral en el 2T20  

    A medida que la actividad se mantiene decaída y las medidas de distanciamiento social se levantan gradualmente, el mercado laboral se mantenga débil.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Uncertainty over recovery  

    We expect the policy rate to remain at 0.5% and a boost to the QE measures in response to any significant deterioration of conditions.

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: Incertidumbre sobre la recuperación  

    La TPM permanecería en 0,5% en el futuro cercano, mientras que medidas de alivio cuantitativo se usarían ante deterioros significativos de las condiciones.

  • CHILE – La débil actividad de junio apunta a una contracción del PIB del 14,6% en el 2T20  

    A medida que se flexibilicen las medidas de distanciamiento social, esperamos alguna recuperación de la actividad

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Low policy rate level inspires caution over future moves  

    As we approach the end of the cycle, future moves would be dependent on how the recovery and inflation unfold

  • CHILE – Sharp labor market deterioration in 2Q20  

    As economic weakness endures and lockdown measures gradually lift, the labor market is likely to remain weak

  • MEXICO – Fiscal accounts deteriorated in 1H20, despite austerity  

    The MoF reduced its 2020 GDP forecast to -7.4%

  • MEXICO – Flash GDP collapsed in 2Q20  

    Industrial sector was affected the most by COVID-19

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market unravels in 2Q20  

    The extension of the lockdown to the end of August hints at only a slow labor market recovery ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus widened in 2Q20  

    Hefty contraction of imports in 2Q20.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in June  

    A slower recovery in imports relative to exports supported the improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – No activity recovery as of May  

    Monthly GDP in May surprised to the downside

  • MEXICO – Higher inflation in the first half of July  

    Core goods and gasoline prices exerted upward pressure to headline inflation

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit continues to worsen in June  

    Expenditure increased in June, driven by social and energy subsidies.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity posted a sequential rebound in May  

    The sequential rebound in May does not preclude a generalized sharp decline in activity in the quarter.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales remained weak in May  

    Distancing measures still affected private consumption during May

  • COLOMBIA – Narrower trade deficit in May as imports collapse  

    With low terms-of-trade and a fragile global demand, Colombia’s external imbalances are set to persist

  • CHILE - Reunión de Política Monetaria: Manteniendo el ritmo de compra de activos  

    El Consejo está listo para intensificar el impulso monetario y apoyar la estabilidad financiera

  • PERU – Monthly GDP remained weak in May  

    A large fiscal stimulus and an expansive monetary policy will support the recovery

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Keeping the pace of asset purchases  

    The board remains ready to intensify the monetary impulse and support financial stability.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation showed a larger-than-expected increase in June  

    We expect inflation to accelerate in the coming months.

  • COLOMBIA – Weak activity in May, despite sequential improvement  

    Despite some upbeat signs, significant job losses and high uncertainty mean the activity outlook remains unfavorable

  • MEXICO – May’s Industrial production still affected by distancing measures  

    IP weakened further on a monthly basis, albeit less than last month

  • MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside again in June  

    Headline inflation was pressured by core tradables and gasoline prices

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: Slowing down the pace of cuts?  

    Differences within board members over the easing pace may be emerging

  • CHILE – Modesta caída de la inflación en junio  

    La demanda interna acotada y el peso estabilizándose, se espera que las presiones inflacionarias se mantengan contenidas hacia adelante.

  • CHILE – Mild inflation drop in June  

    A strained domestic demand and the stabilization of the CLP would lead to contained inflationary pressures going forward.

  • CHILE – Large trade surplus boost in 2Q20  

    With lockdown measures persisting into July and job shedding continuing, import demand will likely stay suppressed in the near-term

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: La inflación en mínimos  

    La actividad se resiente impulsando al gobierno a aumentar el paquete fiscal.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Peso bond issuance in the international capital markets  

    The transmission of COVID-19 remains under control, allowing the country to progress toward the new normal.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Inflation levels bottom out  

    The continued decline in activity led the government to increase the fiscal package.

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Emisión de pesos en el mercado internacional de capitales  

    La transmisión del COVID-19 se mantiene controlada y permite avanzar hacia la nueva normalidad.

  • COLOMBIA – Another downside inflation surprise in June  

    A downbeat activity outlook, swiftly loosening labor market and diminishing inflation expectations point to subdued inflationary pressures ahead

  • MEXICO – Internal demand collapsed in April  

    Weak internal demand in April reflects the first full month of lockdown

  • Macro Scenario - Colombia: Scrapping fiscal limits to face the crisis  

    Larger fiscal and monetary support are necessary to contain the activity collapse

  • Macro Scenario - Peru: Downside surprise in activity  

    Expansionary monetary policy for long

  • Macro Scenario - Argentina: The art of postponing  

    We now project a GDP contraction of 10.9%, from -9.1% before.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: It’s all about  

    A stronger-than-expected activity decline called for a boost to stimulus measures, but uncertainty complicated the specificities

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: Enfocados en el alivio cuantitativo  

    Una caída de la actividad mayor a lo esperada exigió incrementar las medidas de estímulo, pero la incertidumbre dificultó la discusión de los detalles.

  • CHILE – Activity collapse deepens in May  

    Mining activity still lifted growth in the month.

  • PERU – Lower headline inflation in June  

    Lower gasoline and agro prices exerted downward pressure on inflation

  • ARGENTINA – Another sharp narrowing of current account deficit in 1Q20  

    We forecast a current account surplus of 0.6% of GDP this year.

  • CHILE – Labor market loosening at a faster-than-expected pace  

    The unemployment rate will likely exceed 10% on average this year, peaking in coming months.

  • CHILE – El mercado laboral se deteriora más rápido de lo esperado  

    El desempleo superaría el 10% en promedio este año, alcanzando su punto máximo en los próximos meses.

  • CHILE – El deterioro de la manufactura se profundiza en mayo  

    La actividad sectorial de mayo apunta a que el Imacec se contrajo un 15,5% (-14,1% en abril).

  • CHILE – Manufacturing weakness deepens in May  

    The sectorial activity for May points to the GDP proxy (IMACEC) contracting 15.5% (14.1% fall in April).

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Changing pace with a 25-bp cut, liquidity measures adjusted  

    We see the policy rate reaching 2%, but risks are tilted towards lower rates.

  • COLOMBIA – Further labor market loosening in May  

    The unemployment rate is to average 16% this year (10.5% last year), but risks tilt to the upside if the economic recovery in 2H20 underwhelms.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity collapsed in April  

    We now project a GDP contraction of 10.9% for this year, from -9.1% before

  • MEXICO – Temporary deterioration of the trade balance  

    Exports and imports remained weak in May amid the Outbreak

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP collapsed in April  

    Broad-based deterioration in economic activity amid the outbreak

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus continued to widened in May  

    Imports continued to slide.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales fell sharply in April amid COVID-19  

    Private consumption determinants also weakened

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: Cycle goes on  

    Another 50-bp cut in the next meeting is likely

  • MEXICO – Upside inflation surprise in the first half of June  

    Upside surprise came from core non-food items

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal balance deteriorated further in May  

    There is the risk of a wider primary deficit than the 4.8% that we currently expect for this year

  • ARGENTINA – GDP continued to contract at the beginning of the year  

    We expect activity to show a bigger contraction in 2Q20 due to the impact of social distancing measures.

  • Monthly GDP drops 8.4% mom/sa in April  

    PM-Itaú posts the sharpest decline in the series

  • MEXICO – Weak domestic demand in 1Q20 amid COVID-19  

    Private demand deteriorated, showing the first negative effects from the outbreak

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit despite weakened imports  

    Weak imports is consistent with a significant consumption and investment contraction ahead

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: A deeper decline amid greater uncertainty  

    Rates seen staying at 0.5% until mid-2022

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Rates low for longer, liquidity and QE measures boosted  

    Preventing widespread bankruptcies and job losses justifies the recent boosting of fiscal and monetary support.

  • CHILE - Reunión de Política Monetaria: Tasas bajas por más tiempo, ampliación de la liquidez y medid  

    Prevenir las quiebras generalizadas y la pérdida de empleos justifica el reciente aumento del estímulo fiscal y monetario.

  • COLOMBIA – Fiscal rule suspended to allow for greater crisis response  

    While the latest developments allow for short-term fiscal relief, a tough fiscal consolidation program would be needed ahead.

  • PERU – Monthly GDP collapsed in May  

    Non-natural resource sectors were affected the most

  • CHILE – Two-year USD 12 billion cross-party fiscal plan to tackle pandemic  

    The enhanced fiscal response would help avoid a more long-lasting impact from the coronavirus pandemic on the economy

  • CHILE – Plan fiscal de dos años por USD 12 mil millones para enfrentar la pandemia  

    La respuesta fiscal más robusta ayudaría a evitar un impacto más duradero del coronavirus en la economía

  • COLOMBIA – Activity collapsed in April  

    With lockdown measures persisting through May, and only partially eased in June, the activity slump will be sharp in 2Q20

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation rate remained stable in May  

    Headline inflation was unchanged in May, helped by price freezes and caps

  • MEXICO – Industrial production collapsed in April  

    Industrial production deterioration reflects a full month of lockdown amid the outbreak

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Restrictions on economic activity are lifted  

    We project a GDP drop of 3.6% for this year.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Easing the lockdown  

    We forecast a 2.6% drop in GDP for this year.

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Flexibilización de la cuarentena  

    Proyectamos una caída del PIB de 2,6% para este año.

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Se levantan restricciones para actividades económicas  

    Mantenemos nuestra proyección de caída del PIB de 3,6% para este año.

  • MEXICO – Inflation rises by less than expected in May  

    The downside surprise in inflation was driven by a contraction in core goods ex-food prices

  • COLOMBIA – Significant disinflation in May  

    As inflation drops swiftly and the activity slump consolidates, the central bank will likely deem it is necessary to persist with monetary easing

  • CHILE – Large trade surplus in May  

    As job losses rapidly rise, import dynamics are set to remain weak ahead

  • CHILE – Amplio superávit comercial en mayo  

    Conforme se destruyan empleos, la dinámica de las importaciones será débil.

  • Macro Scenario - Argentina: Debt and health  

    Argentina defaulted again.

  • CHILE – Inflation falls in May  

    A swiftly loosening labor market and low oil prices lowered inflationary pressures

  • CHILE – La inflación cayó en mayo  

    Un rápido debilitamiento del mercado laboral y bajos precios del petróleo moderaron las presiones inflacionarias.

  • Macro Scenario - Colombia: Still at a standstill  

    More stimulus likely required to aid recovery, but rating risk hovers

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows in 1Q20  

    Falling internal demand and a weaker currency will likely lead to a gradual CAD narrowing this year

  • CHILE – Record activity decline in April  

    With the health situation deteriorating in May, mobility restrictions were extended, hence activity momentum is set to worsen before it gets better

  • CHILE – Histórica caída de la actividad en abril  

    Con el deterioro de la situación sanitaria, las restricciones de movilidad se extendieron, tal que el impulso para la actividad empeoraría antes de mejorar

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Another 50bp rate cut, but no unanimity  

    We see room for lower rates, but the board would prefer not to move more aggressively than already done.

  • CHILE – Private consumption slump leads activity decline in April  

    Reduced global demand, mobility restrictions and lingering domestic uncertainties point to a 3.7% GDP contraction this year

  • CHILE – Historical job destruction unfolded in April  

    Labor market loosening would persist after April as social distancing measures continued and growth prospects faltered.

  • CHILE – Histórica destrucción de empleo en abril  

    El deterioro del mercado laboral continuará conforme se mantengan las medidas de distanciamiento social y las débiles perspectivas de crecimiento.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market hard-hit in April as dual shocks strike  

    Additional labor market loosening ahead is in line with a significant consumption decline this year.

  • CHILE – Marcado deterioro del consumo privado lleva a una caída de la actividad en abril  

    La caída de la demanda global, las restricciones de movilidad y la persistente incertidumbre domestica nos hacen esperar una contracción del PIB para 3,7%.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market hard-hit in April as dual shocks strike  

    Additional labor market loosening ahead is in line with a significant consumption decline this year.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: still no forward guidance amid an uncertain outlook  

    Most members pointed out the importance of acting with prudence

  • MEXICO – 1Q20 Inflation Report: higher inflation in 2020 consistent with a cautious easing cycle  

    We expect Banxico to continue a cautious easing cycle

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus widened in April  

    We forecast a surplus of USD 17.5 billion this year, as measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 will take further a toll on activity and imports

  • MEXICO – 1Q20 GDP deteriorated, but surprised to the upside  

    Industrial and services sector started showing the negative effects from the outbreak

  • MEXICO – Strong current account result in 1Q20  

    Net portfolio flows deteriorated amid uncertainty surrounding the outbreak.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance temporarily deteriorated in April  

    Weak exports and imports reflected the full COVID-19 effect in the economy.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales deteriorated in March  

    Already weak retail sales started reflecting the negative effects from COVID-19

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: Preparando estímulo cuantitativo adicional  

    Un mayor lastre global y dudas sobre la recuperación consolidan la visión de que un estímulo monetario significativo es necesario

  • MEXICO – Headline and core inflation surprise to the upside in the first half of May  

    Headline inflation rebounded driven by core food and gasoline prices

  • PERU – Narrow CAD, amid weak GDP and deteriorating fiscal accounts in 1Q20  

    Fiscal accounts to deteriorate further due to a large fiscal stimulus and weak economic outlook

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Preparing additional quantitative stimulus  

    A larger external drag and recovery doubts consolidate the view that significant monetary stimulus is required to combat the shock

  • CHILE – Current account balance correction in 1Q20  

    Going forward, the expectation of a rising trade surplus, given a domestic demand implosion, would support a swift CAD narrowing

  • CHILE – Corrección de saldo de la cuenta corriente en el 1T20  

    Hacia adelante, la expectativa de un mayor superávit comercial, dada la contracción de la demanda doméstica, apoyará una rápida corrección del déficit.

  • CHILE – La incidencia a la baja del consumo perduró en el 1T20, se espera un deterioro mayor hacia a  

    La caída de la demanda global, las restricciones de movilidad y la persistente incertidumbre domestica llevarán a una contracción del 3,7% este año.

  • CHILE – Consumption drag continues in 1Q20, further deterioration expected ahead  

    Reduced global demand, mobility restrictions and lingering domestic uncertainties would lead to a 3.7% contraction this year

  • COLOMBIA – Weak 1Q20 GDP: a preview of things to come  

    The central bank will continue enhancing liquidity measures to ease the functioning of the financial system and to protect business operations and employment.

  • PERU – March’s monthly GDP contracted sharply amid the outbreak  

    The deterioration in economic activity was generalized.

  • MEXICO – On going 50-bp easing cycle  

    Balance of risk for inflation remains uncertain

  • COLOMBIA – Still-wide trade deficit in 1Q20  

    Despite weak internal demand and a weaker currency, we expect a gradual narrowing of the current account deficit given the developments in the oil market.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity decline in March  

    How economic activity unfolds will depend on the duration of the lockdown, its effect on the labor market and corporate balance sheets

  • ARGENTINA – COVID-19 caused disinflation in April  

    Still, we note that monetary financing of a growing fiscal deficit tilts risk to the upside.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Smart quarantine  

    We estimate a 2.6% drop in GDP this year.


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