Itaú BBA - Macro Latam

  • MEXICO – May’s Industrial production still affected by distancing measures  

    IP weakened further on a monthly basis, albeit less than last month

  • MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside again in June  

    Headline inflation was pressured by core tradables and gasoline prices

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: Slowing down the pace of cuts?  

    Differences within board members over the easing pace may be emerging

  • CHILE – Modesta caída de la inflación en junio  

    La demanda interna acotada y el peso estabilizándose, se espera que las presiones inflacionarias se mantengan contenidas hacia adelante.

  • CHILE – Mild inflation drop in June  

    A strained domestic demand and the stabilization of the CLP would lead to contained inflationary pressures going forward.

  • CHILE – Large trade surplus boost in 2Q20  

    With lockdown measures persisting into July and job shedding continuing, import demand will likely stay suppressed in the near-term

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: La inflación en mínimos  

    La actividad se resiente impulsando al gobierno a aumentar el paquete fiscal.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Peso bond issuance in the international capital markets  

    The transmission of COVID-19 remains under control, allowing the country to progress toward the new normal.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Inflation levels bottom out  

    The continued decline in activity led the government to increase the fiscal package.

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Emisión de pesos en el mercado internacional de capitales  

    La transmisión del COVID-19 se mantiene controlada y permite avanzar hacia la nueva normalidad.

  • COLOMBIA – Another downside inflation surprise in June  

    A downbeat activity outlook, swiftly loosening labor market and diminishing inflation expectations point to subdued inflationary pressures ahead

  • MEXICO – Internal demand collapsed in April  

    Weak internal demand in April reflects the first full month of lockdown

  • Macro Scenario - Colombia: Scrapping fiscal limits to face the crisis  

    Larger fiscal and monetary support are necessary to contain the activity collapse

  • Macro Scenario - Peru: Downside surprise in activity  

    Expansionary monetary policy for long

  • Macro Scenario - Argentina: The art of postponing  

    We now project a GDP contraction of 10.9%, from -9.1% before.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: It’s all about  

    A stronger-than-expected activity decline called for a boost to stimulus measures, but uncertainty complicated the specificities

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: Enfocados en el alivio cuantitativo  

    Una caída de la actividad mayor a lo esperada exigió incrementar las medidas de estímulo, pero la incertidumbre dificultó la discusión de los detalles.

  • CHILE – Activity collapse deepens in May  

    Mining activity still lifted growth in the month.

  • PERU – Lower headline inflation in June  

    Lower gasoline and agro prices exerted downward pressure on inflation

  • ARGENTINA – Another sharp narrowing of current account deficit in 1Q20  

    We forecast a current account surplus of 0.6% of GDP this year.

  • CHILE – Labor market loosening at a faster-than-expected pace  

    The unemployment rate will likely exceed 10% on average this year, peaking in coming months.

  • CHILE – El mercado laboral se deteriora más rápido de lo esperado  

    El desempleo superaría el 10% en promedio este año, alcanzando su punto máximo en los próximos meses.

  • CHILE – El deterioro de la manufactura se profundiza en mayo  

    La actividad sectorial de mayo apunta a que el Imacec se contrajo un 15,5% (-14,1% en abril).

  • CHILE – Manufacturing weakness deepens in May  

    The sectorial activity for May points to the GDP proxy (IMACEC) contracting 15.5% (14.1% fall in April).

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Changing pace with a 25-bp cut, liquidity measures adjusted  

    We see the policy rate reaching 2%, but risks are tilted towards lower rates.

  • COLOMBIA – Further labor market loosening in May  

    The unemployment rate is to average 16% this year (10.5% last year), but risks tilt to the upside if the economic recovery in 2H20 underwhelms.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity collapsed in April  

    We now project a GDP contraction of 10.9% for this year, from -9.1% before

  • MEXICO – Temporary deterioration of the trade balance  

    Exports and imports remained weak in May amid the Outbreak

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP collapsed in April  

    Broad-based deterioration in economic activity amid the outbreak

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus continued to widened in May  

    Imports continued to slide.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales fell sharply in April amid COVID-19  

    Private consumption determinants also weakened

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: Cycle goes on  

    Another 50-bp cut in the next meeting is likely

  • MEXICO – Upside inflation surprise in the first half of June  

    Upside surprise came from core non-food items

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal balance deteriorated further in May  

    There is the risk of a wider primary deficit than the 4.8% that we currently expect for this year

  • ARGENTINA – GDP continued to contract at the beginning of the year  

    We expect activity to show a bigger contraction in 2Q20 due to the impact of social distancing measures.

  • Monthly GDP drops 8.4% mom/sa in April  

    PM-Itaú posts the sharpest decline in the series

  • MEXICO – Weak domestic demand in 1Q20 amid COVID-19  

    Private demand deteriorated, showing the first negative effects from the outbreak

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit despite weakened imports  

    Weak imports is consistent with a significant consumption and investment contraction ahead

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: A deeper decline amid greater uncertainty  

    Rates seen staying at 0.5% until mid-2022

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Rates low for longer, liquidity and QE measures boosted  

    Preventing widespread bankruptcies and job losses justifies the recent boosting of fiscal and monetary support.

  • CHILE - Reunión de Política Monetaria: Tasas bajas por más tiempo, ampliación de la liquidez y medid  

    Prevenir las quiebras generalizadas y la pérdida de empleos justifica el reciente aumento del estímulo fiscal y monetario.

  • COLOMBIA – Fiscal rule suspended to allow for greater crisis response  

    While the latest developments allow for short-term fiscal relief, a tough fiscal consolidation program would be needed ahead.

  • PERU – Monthly GDP collapsed in May  

    Non-natural resource sectors were affected the most

  • CHILE – Two-year USD 12 billion cross-party fiscal plan to tackle pandemic  

    The enhanced fiscal response would help avoid a more long-lasting impact from the coronavirus pandemic on the economy

  • CHILE – Plan fiscal de dos años por USD 12 mil millones para enfrentar la pandemia  

    La respuesta fiscal más robusta ayudaría a evitar un impacto más duradero del coronavirus en la economía

  • COLOMBIA – Activity collapsed in April  

    With lockdown measures persisting through May, and only partially eased in June, the activity slump will be sharp in 2Q20

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation rate remained stable in May  

    Headline inflation was unchanged in May, helped by price freezes and caps

  • MEXICO – Industrial production collapsed in April  

    Industrial production deterioration reflects a full month of lockdown amid the outbreak

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Restrictions on economic activity are lifted  

    We project a GDP drop of 3.6% for this year.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Easing the lockdown  

    We forecast a 2.6% drop in GDP for this year.

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Flexibilización de la cuarentena  

    Proyectamos una caída del PIB de 2,6% para este año.

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Se levantan restricciones para actividades económicas  

    Mantenemos nuestra proyección de caída del PIB de 3,6% para este año.

  • MEXICO – Inflation rises by less than expected in May  

    The downside surprise in inflation was driven by a contraction in core goods ex-food prices

  • COLOMBIA – Significant disinflation in May  

    As inflation drops swiftly and the activity slump consolidates, the central bank will likely deem it is necessary to persist with monetary easing

  • CHILE – Large trade surplus in May  

    As job losses rapidly rise, import dynamics are set to remain weak ahead

  • CHILE – Amplio superávit comercial en mayo  

    Conforme se destruyan empleos, la dinámica de las importaciones será débil.

  • Macro Scenario - Argentina: Debt and health  

    Argentina defaulted again.

  • CHILE – Inflation falls in May  

    A swiftly loosening labor market and low oil prices lowered inflationary pressures

  • CHILE – La inflación cayó en mayo  

    Un rápido debilitamiento del mercado laboral y bajos precios del petróleo moderaron las presiones inflacionarias.

  • Macro Scenario - Colombia: Still at a standstill  

    More stimulus likely required to aid recovery, but rating risk hovers

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrows in 1Q20  

    Falling internal demand and a weaker currency will likely lead to a gradual CAD narrowing this year

  • CHILE – Record activity decline in April  

    With the health situation deteriorating in May, mobility restrictions were extended, hence activity momentum is set to worsen before it gets better

  • CHILE – Histórica caída de la actividad en abril  

    Con el deterioro de la situación sanitaria, las restricciones de movilidad se extendieron, tal que el impulso para la actividad empeoraría antes de mejorar

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Another 50bp rate cut, but no unanimity  

    We see room for lower rates, but the board would prefer not to move more aggressively than already done.

  • CHILE – Private consumption slump leads activity decline in April  

    Reduced global demand, mobility restrictions and lingering domestic uncertainties point to a 3.7% GDP contraction this year

  • CHILE – Historical job destruction unfolded in April  

    Labor market loosening would persist after April as social distancing measures continued and growth prospects faltered.

  • CHILE – Histórica destrucción de empleo en abril  

    El deterioro del mercado laboral continuará conforme se mantengan las medidas de distanciamiento social y las débiles perspectivas de crecimiento.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market hard-hit in April as dual shocks strike  

    Additional labor market loosening ahead is in line with a significant consumption decline this year.

  • CHILE – Marcado deterioro del consumo privado lleva a una caída de la actividad en abril  

    La caída de la demanda global, las restricciones de movilidad y la persistente incertidumbre domestica nos hacen esperar una contracción del PIB para 3,7%.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market hard-hit in April as dual shocks strike  

    Additional labor market loosening ahead is in line with a significant consumption decline this year.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: still no forward guidance amid an uncertain outlook  

    Most members pointed out the importance of acting with prudence

  • MEXICO – 1Q20 Inflation Report: higher inflation in 2020 consistent with a cautious easing cycle  

    We expect Banxico to continue a cautious easing cycle

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus widened in April  

    We forecast a surplus of USD 17.5 billion this year, as measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 will take further a toll on activity and imports

  • MEXICO – 1Q20 GDP deteriorated, but surprised to the upside  

    Industrial and services sector started showing the negative effects from the outbreak

  • MEXICO – Strong current account result in 1Q20  

    Net portfolio flows deteriorated amid uncertainty surrounding the outbreak.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance temporarily deteriorated in April  

    Weak exports and imports reflected the full COVID-19 effect in the economy.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales deteriorated in March  

    Already weak retail sales started reflecting the negative effects from COVID-19

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: Preparando estímulo cuantitativo adicional  

    Un mayor lastre global y dudas sobre la recuperación consolidan la visión de que un estímulo monetario significativo es necesario

  • MEXICO – Headline and core inflation surprise to the upside in the first half of May  

    Headline inflation rebounded driven by core food and gasoline prices

  • PERU – Narrow CAD, amid weak GDP and deteriorating fiscal accounts in 1Q20  

    Fiscal accounts to deteriorate further due to a large fiscal stimulus and weak economic outlook

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Preparing additional quantitative stimulus  

    A larger external drag and recovery doubts consolidate the view that significant monetary stimulus is required to combat the shock

  • CHILE – Current account balance correction in 1Q20  

    Going forward, the expectation of a rising trade surplus, given a domestic demand implosion, would support a swift CAD narrowing

  • CHILE – Corrección de saldo de la cuenta corriente en el 1T20  

    Hacia adelante, la expectativa de un mayor superávit comercial, dada la contracción de la demanda doméstica, apoyará una rápida corrección del déficit.

  • CHILE – La incidencia a la baja del consumo perduró en el 1T20, se espera un deterioro mayor hacia a  

    La caída de la demanda global, las restricciones de movilidad y la persistente incertidumbre domestica llevarán a una contracción del 3,7% este año.

  • CHILE – Consumption drag continues in 1Q20, further deterioration expected ahead  

    Reduced global demand, mobility restrictions and lingering domestic uncertainties would lead to a 3.7% contraction this year

  • COLOMBIA – Weak 1Q20 GDP: a preview of things to come  

    The central bank will continue enhancing liquidity measures to ease the functioning of the financial system and to protect business operations and employment.

  • PERU – March’s monthly GDP contracted sharply amid the outbreak  

    The deterioration in economic activity was generalized.

  • MEXICO – On going 50-bp easing cycle  

    Balance of risk for inflation remains uncertain

  • COLOMBIA – Still-wide trade deficit in 1Q20  

    Despite weak internal demand and a weaker currency, we expect a gradual narrowing of the current account deficit given the developments in the oil market.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity decline in March  

    How economic activity unfolds will depend on the duration of the lockdown, its effect on the labor market and corporate balance sheets

  • ARGENTINA – COVID-19 caused disinflation in April  

    Still, we note that monetary financing of a growing fiscal deficit tilts risk to the upside.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Smart quarantine  

    We estimate a 2.6% drop in GDP this year.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Change of plans  

    We estimate a 2.6% drop in GDP this year.

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Cambio de planes  

    Las medidas para contener el COVID-19 aumentaría los riesgos sobre la dinámica del ratio deuda a PIB.

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Cuarentena inteligente  

    Estimamos una caída del PIB de 2,6% este año.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production deteriorated amid COVID-19  

    Manufacturing output is the most affected sector by the outbreak

  • Macro Scenario - Colombia: Hard hit  

    The economy is on the receiving end of two shocks, one from the coronavirus and the other from oil market developments.

  • Macro Scenario - Peru: A bold fiscal and monetary response  

    Strict measures to contain the outbreak

  • Macro Scenario - Argentina: Social distancing with creditors?  

    We now forecast a GDP contraction of 8.3% for 2020, from -6.4% in our previous scenario.

  • CHILE – Inflation moderates amid coronavirus shock  

    Low oil prices and a widening output gap mean inflation would remain contained going forward.

  • MEXICO – Weak internal demand before COVID-19  

    Uncertainties over domestic policy direction will also keep denting investment outlook.

  • CHILE – El choque del coronavirus y menores precios internacionales de petróleo favorecen a la balan  

    Las medidas de control del coronavirus, el sentimiento privado bajo y el deterioro del mercado laboral, llevarán a un débil dinamismo de las importaciones.

  • CHILE – Coronavirus shock and lower oil prices boost trade balance in April  

    As social distancing measures stay in place, private sentiment drops and the labor market loosens, import dynamics will remain weak going forward.

  • MEXICO – Lower headline and core inflation  

    Fall in gasoline prices exerted downward pressure on inflation

  • CHILE – Reunión de Política Monetaria: Tasas bajas por un largo periodo, con estímulo adicional disp  

    Dado el escenario económico, esperamos a la TPM en su mínimo técnico por el resto del año

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Low-for-long rates, with additional stimulus on hand  

    Given the economic outlook, we expect rates to remain at their technical minimum throughout the year

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation eases in April  

    Core inflation is slowing fast at the margin

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: easing cycle with prudence  

    Board members seem to agree on the need for lower rates

  • CHILE – Marcada caída de la actividad en marzo  

    Las cifras solo comienzan a reflejar el impacto del choque, y la actividad se deterioraría antes de mejorar.

  • CHILE – Sharp activity decline in March  

    Economic data is only starting to reflect the impact of the shock, with activity set to get worse before it gets better.

  • CHILE – La tasa de desempleo aumenta 1pp en el 1T20 conforme partió el choque por coronavirus  

    El desempleo superaría 10% en los próximos meses.

  • CHILE – Marcada caída de ventas minoristas en marzo, a medida el virus avanza  

    Imacec de marzo se contraería 1,0%

  • CHILE – Unemployment rate rises 1pp in 1Q20 amid start of coronavirus shock  

    Weaker job gains and steady labor force growth led the loosening of the labor market

  • MEXICO – Flash GDP in 1Q20 weakened amid COVID  

    Economic growth deteriorated in 1Q20 from an already weak growth pace in 2019

  • COLOMBIA – Sharp labor market deterioration in 1Q20 amid lockdown  

    Labor market loosening hints at considerable consumption fall in 2Q20.

  • CHILE – Abrupt retail decline in March as virus strikes  

    The monthly GDP proxy is set to contract 1% YoY in March.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A consecutive 50-bp cut  

    Given the drastic outlook deterioration, we see room for at least one more 50-bp rate cut to 2.75%

  • ARGENTINA – New drop in activity in February  

    Coincident indicators point to a sharp contraction in March.

  • MEXICO – Further trade balance improvement in March  

    Manufacturing exports deteriorated in March amid disruption in global supply chains

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP deteriorated in February  

    Weak momentum in monthly GDP before COVID-19

  • MEXICO – Headline inflation falls sharply in the first half of April, while core inflation decelerat  

    Inflation was dragged mainly by a fall in gasoline prices

  • MEXICO – Retail sales deteriorated in February  

    Retail sales growth pace was weak before COVID-19

  • ARGENTINA – Strong trade surplus despite decline in exports  

    We expect a wider trade surplus this year.

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit increased, affected by COVID-19  

    We expect a dramatic deterioration of the fiscal accounts in 2Q20.

  • MEXICO – Gradual rate cuts in emergency meetings  

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  • COLOMBIA – Another large trade deficit in February  

    The evolvement of external imbalances will depend on the opposing forces of low oil prices and slumped domestic demand

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: Enfatizando el mensaje de tasas bajas por un pe  

    Si bien las tasas se mantendrían en su mínimo técnico durante todo el año, no podemos descartar el uso de medidas no convencionales.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Emphasizing low-for-long message  

    While rates would remain at their technical minimum throughout the year, we cannot rule out the use of additional forms of monetary tools.

  • COLOMBIA – Strong activity prior to dual shock  

    Despite strong activity at the start of the year, dual shocks would have a significant impact on the economy and lead to a growth contraction.

  • ARGENTINA – Monthly inflation picked up  

    The rise in headline inflation was driven by food and education services.

  • PERU – Decent monthly GDP growth before COVID-19  

    Economic activity to deteriorate sharply amid coronavirus outbreak

  • MEXICO – Weak industrial production even before coronavirus outbreak  

    Coronavirus outbreak is set to deteriorate activity sharply

  • CHILE – Signs of moderating inflationary pressures in March  

    We see inflation falling closer to the 3% target in 2Q20.

  • CHILE – Señales de moderación de las presiones inflacionarias en marzo  

    La inflación se acercaría a la meta del 3% en el segundo trimestre del año.

  • MEXICO – Headline and core inflation slowed down in March  

    Lower inflation driven by a fall in gasoline prices

  • CHILE – Amplio superávit comercial en el 1T20  

    Con la menor actividad económica a fines de marzo y abril, el dinamismo de las importaciones se deterioraría aún más en los próximos meses.

  • CHILE – Large trade surplus in 1Q20  

    With the Chilean economy all but closing down in late March and April, import dynamics will deteriorate further in coming months

  • COLOMBIA – Food drives inflation in March  

    Inflation remains near the upper bound of the central bank’s tolerance range (2%-4%), but core measures are closer to the 3% target.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: cautious tone, but further easing is likely  

    Despite the cautious tone, we expect Banxico to reduce monetary policy further in the upcoming months.

  • MEXICO – Higher fiscal deficits ahead  

    The fiscal update reflects worse fiscal revenues and some support to the economy through extra spending

  • CHILE – Upbeat activity in February  

    Despite the activity improvement at the beginning of 2019, we expect a 1.6% contraction this year.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Maximum monetary impulse necessary during unusual times  

    Widening output gap to dominate inflation trajectory

  • CHILE – Informe de Política Monetaria: Impulso monetario máximo es necesario en tiempos no convencio  

    La ampliación de la brecha del producto dominará la trayectoria de la inflación.

  • CHILE – Actividad favorable en febrero  

    Pese a la mejora de actividad al comienzo de 2019, esperamos una contracción del PIB este año.

  • PERU – Inflation decelerated in March  

    Headline inflation was dragged by a sharp fall in core inflation

  • CHILE – Favorable activity dynamics ahead of global shock  

    We expect the GDP proxy for February to grow 3.3%.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: A 50-bp rate cut and “low for long” forward guidance  

    Any additional monetary stimulus would likely come through quantitative easing measures

  • CHILE – Labor market loosening in February  

    As economic conditions deteriorate, significant labor market loosening is expected ahead.

  • CHILE – Dinámica favorable de la actividad previo al choque global  

    Esperamos un crecimiento de 3,3% del IMACEC de febrero.

  • CHILE – Reunión de Política Monetaria: Recorte de 50 pb de la TPM y guía de  

    Estímulo monetario adicional vendría en la forma de medidas de alivio cuantitativo.

  • COLOMBIA – Disjointed labor market ahead of dual shock  

    The shock expected to hit activity this year would lead to some labor market loosening

  • CHILE – El mercado laboral se deterioró en febrero  

    A medida que las condiciones económicas se deterioran, se espera un marcado debilitamiento del mercado laboral hacia adelante.

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: Recortes adicionales son probables  

    Esperamos que las tasas bajen a 0,50% en la RPM de mañana.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Additional easing is likely  

    We expect a 50bp rate cut to 0.5% at tomorrow’s monetary policy meeting.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity falling before coronavirus outbreak  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 4.4% for 2020.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A 50-bp rate cut and strengthening liquidity measures  

    Our call is for stable rates ahead, but risks are tilted to more easing.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved even further in February  

    Manufacturing exports deteriorated on a monthly basis

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside in January  

    Economic activity to deteriorate sharply in 1H2020

  • ARGENTINA – Still-wide trade surplus in February  

    Lower commodity prices are likely to affect trade surplus this year

  • ARGENTINA – Current account turned into surplus in 4Q19  

    At the margin, we estimate that the s.a. current account surplus reached 2.3% of GDP in 4Q19.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales in January recovered  

    Coronavirus outbreak to hit private consumption in 1H2020

  • ARGENTINA – GDP fell 2.2% in 2019, marking two years of recession  

    Our GDP growth forecast for 2020 was recently revised down to -4.4% from -2.0%

  • MEXICO – Inflation decelerated in 1H March  

    Lower energy prices pressured down inflation

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting anticipated: A 50-bp hawkish cut, but more easing is likely  

    We expect a policy rate of 5.50% by the end of 2020.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained weak in 4Q19  

    Public gross fixed investment deteriorated further.

  • COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowing in January to be short-lived  

    Amid the recent terms-of-trade collapse and the global scenario deterioration, Colombia’s external imbalances will likely endure ahead.

  • CHILE – Marcada caída del consumo en el 4T19  

    La expansión global del COVID-19 y las medidas resultantes solo aumentaron los vientos en contra.

  • CHILE – Mayor déficit de cuenta corriente en 2019  

    We expect a weaker domestic demand and lower energy prices to lead to a narrowing of external imbalance this year.

  • CHILE – Current account deficit widened in 2019  

    We expect a weaker domestic demand and lower energy prices to lead to a narrowing of external imbalance this year.

  • CHILE – A consumption implosion in 4Q19  

    The global expansion of COVID-19 and the resulting measures undertaken only enhance headwinds ahead.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: A 75-bp intermeeting rate cut and measures to support the financial  

    The global liquidity wave paved the way for rate cuts in Chile.

  • CHILE – Reunión de Política Monetaria Excepcional: Un recorte de tasas de 75pb  

    La oleada de liquidez global le allanó el camino al banco central.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production recovered softly in January  

    Coronavirus outbreak pose downside risks to industrial production outlook

  • COLOMBIA – Retail sales continued to drive growth in January  

    Strong external headwinds will likely lead to a growth slowdown ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Disinflation continued in February  

    Tariff freeze decelerated headline inflation.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: No changes in monetary policy  

    Price stability would give the BCP room to maintain the current monetary policy rate.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: New government in office  

    The government is focused on public accounts.

  • MEXICO – Headline inflation rises beyond expectations, with core inflation slowing down  

    Annual inflation rebound will fade away in March as the unfavorable base effect disappears

  • CHILE – Otro amplio superávit comercial en febrero  

    La rápida corrección de los desequilibrios externos de Chile es un desarrollo favorable que podría aliviar parte de la presión sobre el peso.

  • CHILE – Another large trade surplus in February  

    The quick correction of Chile’s external imbalances is a favorable development that could alleviate part of the pressure on the CLP.

  • CHILE – Otra sorpresa al alza en inflación  

    El traspaso de devaluación mantendrá a la inflación elevada

  • CHILE – Tradable inflation pushes inflation up once again  

    Inflation pass-through pressures will keep inflation elevated for the coming months until weakened internal demand

  • CHILE – Tradable inflation pushes inflation up once again  

    Inflation pass-through pressures will keep inflation elevated for the coming months until weakened internal demand

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation in line with expectations in February  

    Robust growth, along with the weakening of the Colombian peso, pose a risk to our disinflation expectation

  • MEXICO – Weak domestic demand in 4Q19  

    The figures show internal demand in Mexico was weak in 2019

  • COLOMBIA – Another wide current account deficit in 2019  

    The favorable FDI inflows to Colombia would continue to allay possible central bank concerns

  • PERU – Low inflation in February  

    Annual headline inflation stood below the central bank target for the sixth month in a row

  • CHILE – Activity off to a faster-than-expected start to 2020  

    Despite the positive dynamics at the beginning of the year, a continued momentum recovery is unlikely

  • CHILE – Labor survey revamp results in higher historical unemployment  

    A further labor market loosening is expected amid low growth.

  • COLOMBIA – Favorable urban labor market developments in January  

    Labor market developments in urban zones is in line with a prolonged period of activity recovery and elevated business confidence levels

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in January  

    Manufacturing exports improved on a monthly basis, but momentum is still weak

  • CHILE – Activity recovery advances in January  

    Sectorial indicators point at a January GDP proxy (IMACEC) expansion of 1.0%.

  • CHILE – Revisión metodológica de la encuesta de empleo arroja un desempleo histórico mayor  

    Esperamos un deterioro adicional del mercado laboral dado el bajo crecimiento.

  • CHILE – La recuperación de la actividad continuó en enero  

    Los indicadores sectoriales apunta a un crecimiento del 1% para el IMACEC de enero.

  • ARGENTINA – Weak activity affects fiscal balance in January  

    Total revenues decreased by 8.2% yoy in real terms in January, dragged down by a weak tax collection

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy minutes: not committing with further rate cuts  

    Most members are data dependent for future monetary policy decisions

  • MEXICO – 4Q19 Inflation Report: Lower GDP growth forecasts and slightly higher inflation  

    The balance of risks for inflation was kept as uncertain

  • PERU – Soft 2019 GDP, amid narrow fiscal and external accounts  

    Final domestic demand was dragged mainly by weak gross fixed public investment

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus remained solid at the beginning of the year  

    Weak imports sustained a wide trade surplus in January.

  • ARGENTINA – GDP contraction in 2019  

    Economic activity marked two years of recession.


      < Volver