Itaú BBA - Macro Latam

  • MEXICO – Still positive momentum in April´s GDP  

    We expect GDP growth of 6.5% for 2021

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: Persistently high inflation leads to split decision to hike rates  

    The central bank is more cautious on the inflation outlook.

  • ARGENTINA – Robust GDP growth in 1Q21  

    Given the higher-than-expected carryover, there are upside risks to our GDP growth forecast of 6.0% for 2021.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Starting to discuss rate hikes  

    Swifter recovery means current stimulus levels no longer necessary.

  • CHILE - Minutas de Reunión de Política Monetaria: Comenzando la discusión de alzas de tasas  

    Una recuperación más rápida significa que los niveles de estímulo actuales ya no serían necessários.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales momentum remains positive  

    Large annual growth in April reflects a favorable base effect.

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit at the start of 2Q21  

    Some trade deficit narrowing is likely ahead as the effect of protest action and mobility restrictions transitorily weaken import dynamism.

  • ARGENTINA – Lower-than-expected trade surplus in May due to strong imports  

    We revised our trade surplus projection to USD 14 billion for 2021, down from our earlier estimate of USD 17.0 billion.

  • ARGENTINA – Stronger-than-expected current account surplus in 1Q21  

    We lowered our forecast for the current account surplus to 1.5% of GDP in 2021 (from 2.0% of GDP)

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal accounts continued to improve in May  

    We estimate that the twelve-month primary deficit fell to 3.4% of GDP, from 6.5% in December 2020.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand recovered in 1Q21  

    The reopening of the economy supported the recovery of internal demand

  • COLOMBIA – Fiscal plan unlikely to prevent further downgrades  

    The pandemic continues to delay fiscal consolidation in the short-term

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Struggling with the second wave  

    Containment of the outbreak is key for the recovery

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Contagio de Covid-19 aún alto a pesar del rápido progreso de la vacunació  

    Manteniendo el grado de inversión

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Still-High COVID-19 contagion despite fast vaccination progress  

    Maintaining the investment grade

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation slowed again in May   

    We forecast 47% inflation for this year, with risks tilted to the upside

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Luchando con la segunda ola  

    El freno de la pandemia es clave para la recuperación

  • COLOMBIA – Large annual activity increase in April, despite sequential fall  

    Protest action will contain activity dynamics in May

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Fiscal deterioration takes its toll  

    A downgrade by Fitch in the coming weeks (also to below investment grade) is possible

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: On the verge of a new default  

    Our baseline scenario assumes an agreement with the IMF after the mid-term elections, adjusting macro policies somewhat.

  • MEXICO – Still positive momentum in industrial production  

    Industrial production was supported by a favorable base effect on an annual basis

  • CHILE – Informe de política monetaria: Tiempo de alzas  

    La tasa de política se mantendría expansiva en el horizonte de dos años para consolidar la recuperación.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Time to Hike  

    The policy rate would remain expansionary over the two-year horizon to consolidate the recovery

  • MEXICO – Another upside surprise in inflation in May  

    Upside pressure to inflation came mainly from other services and non-core food prices

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Decision: Liftoff near  

    Risks are in favor of several rate hikes before the close of the year

  • CHILE – Decisión de política monetaria: Se avecinan las alzas  

    Riesgos a favor de varias alzas de tasas antes de fin de año

  • CHILE – Inflation pressures consolidate in May  

    The consumption-led economic recovery will likely lead to yearend inflation above the 3% target

  • CHILE – Menor superávit comercial en mayo  

    Hacia adelante, la recuperación de la demanda interna, impulsada por el aumento de las medidas de apoyo, resultaría en una reducción del superávit comercial

  • COLOMBIA – Food prices pull inflation up in May  

    Core inflationary pressures are normalizing more slowly amid a gradual labor market recovery

  • MEXICO – Solid internal demand expansion in March  

    Internal demand was supported by the easing of social distancing measures

  • CHILE – Narrower trade surplus in May  

    Going forward, the domestic demand recovery, boosted by increased support measures, will see a further trade surplus narrowing

  • MEXICO – 1Q21 Inflation Report: higher inflation forecasts increase odds of interest rate hikes  

    Upward revisions in inflation projections increases the odds of Banxico hiking rates

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit widens in 1Q21  

    A rising CAD increases odds of an earlier start to the rate hike cycle

  • PERU – Inflation in May surprised to the upside  

    Higher food and energy commodity prices exerted upward pressure to inflation

  • CHILE – Stronger-than-expected IMACEC in April  

    A mild sequential drop shows the economy has adapted to operating under restricted conditions

  • CHILE – IMACEC sobre las expectativas en abril  

    Una menor caída secuencial muestra que la economía se ha adaptado para operar en condiciones restringidas.

  • CHILE – Monetary policy meeting minutes: Waiting for the June IPoM  

    The June IPoM would signal rate hikes are coming this year.

  • CHILE – Contracción secuencial de comercio y manufactura en abril debido a cuarentenas  

    Esperamos que el Imacec de abril aumente un 11% interanual

  • CHILE – Desempleo menor al esperado en abril  

    Con las restricciones de movilidad vigentes en mayo, el ritmo de la recuperación del mercado laboral sería lento hacia adelante

  • CHILE – Sequential retail and manufacturing contractions in April due to lockdowns  

    We expect the April Imacec to increase 11% YoY.

  • CHILE – Lower-than-expected unemployment rate in April  

    With mobility restrictions still in place during May, the pace of the labor market recovery ahead is set to be slow.

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: A la espera del IPoM de junio  

    El IPoM de junio indicaría que habría alzas de tasa este año.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: odds for rate hikes are increasing  

    Most Board members considered the balance of risk for inflation bias to the upside

  • MEXICO – GDP recovered further in 1Q21  

    Services and construction sectors supported the recovery in the quarter

  • MEXICO – A temporary sequential narrowing of the current account surplus in 1Q21  

    There was a deterioration in the trade balance in 1Q21 due to supply shocks

  • MEXICO – Upside surprise in April’s trade balance  

    Vehicle exports recovered in April after the sector was affected by supply shocks in 1Q21

  • MEXICO – Another upside inflation surprise in 1H May  

    The reopening of the economy is exerting upside pressure in core services inflation.

  • PERU – Activity deteriorated on sequential basis in 1Q21, amid narrowing current account surplus and  

    Some tightening of social distancing measures affected activity at the margin in 1Q21

  • MEXICO – Another solid expansion of retail sales in March  

    Retail sales are now above pre-pandemic levels

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit continued to narrow in April  

    We expect the contraction of the fiscal deficit to slow down ahead due to tougher mobility restrictions.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity extended recovery into 1Q21  

    We expect a sequential decline in 2Q21 due to the effect of the drought on agricultural output and a new round of mobility restrictions

  • ARGENTINA – Strong trade surplus in April despite rising imports  

    .

  • CHILE – Déficit en cuenta corriente mayor al esperado en 1T21  

    Mayores utilidades de la IED, un mayor déficit de servicios y un superávit comercial moderado apoyaron el retorno a un déficit

  • CHILE – PIB crece 0,3% en 1T21 impulsado por consumo durable  

    Los riesgos se inclinan al alza, pero mayor incertidumbre política y su impacto en la confianza y la inversión nos llevan a mantener nuestro crecimiento.

  • CHILE – Larger-than-expected current account deficit in 1Q21   

    Recovering FDI profits, a larger service deficit, and milder trade surplus supported the return to a deficit.

  • CHILE – GDP increases 0.3% in 1Q21, pulled up by durable consumption  

    While risks tilt to the upside, higher political uncertainty and its potential impact on confidence and investment, keep us from changing our growth forecast.

  • PERU – GDP deteriorated in 1Q21 at the margin  

    On an annual basis, the monthly GDP in March was boosted by a favorable base effect

  • COLOMBIA – Wide trade deficit at the end of 1Q21  

    Dynamic imports are offsetting export gains amid a low base of comparison

  • COLOMBIA – Robust activity to start 2021  

    The implied statistical carry over exceeds our current 5.0% for 2021.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation surpasses expectations once again in April  

    Core inflation was higher than the headline reading.

  • CHILE – Reunión de Política Monetaria: Favorable actividad llevaría a alzas de tasas antes de fin de  

    La TPM finalizaría 2021 en 0,75%, pero la probabilidad de que el BCCh la suba aún más ha aumentado

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Upbeat activity likely to lead to rate hikes before yearend  

    We see the policy rate ending 2021 at 0.75%, but the odds that the central bank hikes by more are increasing.

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: unanimously on hold, amid deteriorating balance of risks for infl  

    The Board now sees the balance of risk for inflation tilted to the upside

  • COLOMBIA – Positive activity surprise at the end of 1Q21  

    The data points at a 6.2% YoY growth for the coincident activity indicator ISE (to be released tomorrow)

  • MEXICO – Upside surprise in March’s industrial production  

    Negative supply shocks in manufacturing output seem to have faded away in March

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: La segunda ola sigue golpeando fuerte  

    Pronosticamos un crecimiento del PIB del 3,5% este año, pero la pandemia sigue siendo el principal riesgo para nuestra proyección

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Fiscal outlook deteriorates  

    We revised our forecast for the nominal fiscal deficit up to 5.0% of GDP, from 4.0% in our previous scenario.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: The second wave continues to hit hard  

    We forecast 3.5% GDP growth this year, but the pandemic is still the main risk to our projection

  • MEXICO – Mixed internal demand figures in February  

    Internal demand indicators remain below pre-pandemic levels

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Las consolidación fiscal luce más desafiante  

    Revisamos nuestra previsión para el déficit fiscal nominal hasta el 5,0% del PIB, desde el 4,0% de nuestro escenario anterior.

  • CHILE – Upside inflation surprise in April  

    Transitory factors (pension payouts, global oil prices) would lead to an inflation acceleration in the short-term.

  • CHILE – Otro amplio superávit comercial en abril  

    Altos precios del cobre contendrían el déficit en cuenta corriente de este año

  • CHILE – Another large trade surplus in April  

    High copper prices would contain the current account deficit this yea

  • CHILE – Sorpresa al alza de la inflación en abril  

    Factores transitorios (pago del 10% de los fondos previsionales, precios del petróleo) conducirían a una aceleración de la inflación en el corto plazo

  • MEXICO – Unfavorable base effect contributes to pressure April’s inflation  

    Inflation was slightly above market expectations.

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Uncertain election outcome  

    Fragmented Congress likely to make governability a challenge

  • COLOMBIA – Upside inflation surprise in April  

    COP dynamics and disruptions to food supply are upside risks

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Fiscal prospects dim  

    Tax reform dilution prevents significant fiscal consolidation and credit rating downgrades become more likely

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: No political room to adjust  

    Difficulties in advancing with fiscal consolidation

  • A tight contest for a qualified majority   

    The microeconomic policy direction continues to generate uncertainty.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Faster recovery expected, but stimulus to stay  

    The central bank noted that fiscal consolidation is key to maintain risk premia under control and guarantee capital inflows.

  • CHILE – Robust March GDP growth, despite sequential drop  

    Annual growth was pulled up by commerce and services amid a low base of comparison

  • CHILE – Robusto crecimiento del PIB en marzo, a pesar de la caída en el margen  

    Comercio y servicios impulsaron el crecimiento anual en medio de una base de comparación baja.

  • CHILE – Activity temporarily retreats in March at the margin  

    The low base of comparison would lead the monthly GDP index (IMACEC) to increase 5% YoY.

  • CHILE – Modesto avance del mercado laboral en el 1T21, previo a las cuarentenas  

    Relajamiento de restricciones de movilidad a fines de abril favorecerían la recuperación del mercado laboral a partir de mayo.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Majority supports rates on hold  

    Despite a bullish activity outlook, appeal for further easing is waning.

  • CHILE – Mild labor market gains in 1Q21, prior to lockdown  

    With the loosening of mobility restrictions by the end of April, the labor market recovery would likely gather speed from May onwards

  • MEXICO – GDP slowed down in 1Q21  

    Supply disruptions in the manufacturing sector affected 1Q21 GDP

  • CHILE – Actividad retrocede transitoriamente en el margen en marzo  

    Una baja base de comparación llevaría al Imacec de marzo a crecer 5% interanual.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market improved in 1Q21  

    Mobility restrictions in April and likely May would slow the labor market recovery ahead

  • MEXICO – Slight deterioration in fiscal balance  

    Public debt decreased amid a higher GDP base

  • MEXICO – Downside surprise in March’s trade balance  

    Manufacturing exports recovered, while non-oil imports posted a solid growth.

  • MEXICO – Downside surprise in February’s monthly GDP  

    Services sector deteriorated despite the easing of social distancing measures from the second half of February

  • MEXICO – Solid retail sales growth at the margin  

    The easing of social distancing measures supported the expansion of retail sales

  • MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside in 1H April  

    Annual inflation reflects an unfavorable base effect due to lower gasoline prices a year ago

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus recovered at the margin, supported by agricultural exports  

    Robust export growth in 1Q21 was due to higher commodity prices.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity declined in February, as expected  

    Looking ahead, we expect a sequential rebound of activity in March

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit narrowed in 1Q21  

    The central bank remained the main source of financing for the Treasury.

  • COLOMBIA – Still-wide trade deficit in February  

    Recovering domestic demand is restraining the pace of the trade correction

  • COLOMBIA – A 2.0% tax reform submitted  

    Negotiations with Congress are likely to yield a watered-down version of the bill.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Reinforcing rates on-hold this year  

    The cost of signaling rate hikes only in 2022 is low given adverse short-term dynamics.

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: Reforzando el mensaje de tasas estables  

    El costo de señalizar aumentos de la TPM solo en 2022 es bajo dada la dinámica adversa a corto plazo.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation comes in significantly above expectations in March  

    The anti-inflationary toolkit is reduced to tighter controls, with an eye on the October legislative election.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity rebounds in February  

    We expect the Colombian economy to bounce back with growth of 5.0% this year, after shrinking 6.8% in 2020

  • PERU – Weak GDP in February, despite upside surprise  

    The monthly GDP was less affected than expected by the retightening of social distancing measures.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: New COVID-19 cases spike, while vaccination remains slow  

    We have adjusted our GDP forecast for this year down to 3.5%, from 4% previously.

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Avanza la vacunación, pero los casos de covid-19 marcan records  

    La vacunación avanza, aunque los casos marcan picos

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Los nuevos casos de Covid-19 aumentan, mientras que la vacunación contin  

    Ajustamos a la baja nuestra proyección de crecimiento para este año a 3,5% desde 4% anteriormente.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Vaccination advances, but COVID-19 cases hit records  

    Vaccination is progressing, although cases are peaking.

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Hold the line  

    Macroeconomic policies will likely lead to increased distortions

  • MEXICO – Temporary supply disruptions in manufacturing output  

    A global supply disruption of semiconductors and temporary gas shortages affected manufacturing output

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Tight presidential race   

    Polls suggest six candidates could slip through in the first two places and then participate in the second round

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Time to talk taxes  

    A structural tax reform is a key prerequisite to maintain investment grade rating

  • MEXICO – Energy prices pressured inflation further in March  

    Core annual inflation also accelerated.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: most board members see decision to stay on-hold as a pause  

    The majority of Board members considered this is not the end of the easing cycle

  • CHILE – Another downside inflation surprise in March  

    Inflationary pressures remain contained amid significant slack in the economy

  • CHILE – Otra sorpresa de inflación a la baja en marzo  

    Las presiones inflacionarias permanecen contenidas dadas las holguras de capacidad en la economía

  • CHILE – Mejora de importaciones detrás de menor superávit comercial en marzo  

    El entorno global favorable sería parcialmente compensado con la mejora de la demanda interna y mayores precios del petróleo

  • CHILE – Imports improvement trims trade surplus in March  

    The benign external environment would be partially countered by improving domestic demand and higher oil prices

  • MEXICO – Internal demand recovered in January  

    Still, internal demand indicators remain below pre-outbreak levels

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation moderated in March, normalization ahead expected  

    Limited inflationary pressures will favor maintaining a significant monetary stimulus in place

  • CHILE – Recovery continued in February prior to March shock  

    Strong fundamentals support growth of 6.5% this year.

  • CHILE - La recuperación continuó en febrero antes del choque de marzo  

    Fundamentos robustos consolidarían un crecimiento de 6,5% este año.

  • CHILE - Débil actividad en febrero  

    Las ganancias secuenciales están en línea con un escenario de recuperación gradual

  • CHILE – Weak activity in February  

    Sequential gains remain in line with a gradual recovery scenario

  • CHILE - Informe de Política Monetaria: Mejores perspectivas respaldan alzas de tasas en el 4T21  

    Ahora esperamos que el ciclo de alzas comience en el 4T21

  • MEXICO - Stable fiscal accounts in 2021  

    Improved economic outlook and higher oil prices support fiscal accounts but weak oil production is still a risk

  • CHILE – Unemployment rate ticked up in February  

    A transitory deterioration of labor market indicators is expected in March amid renewed quarantine measures.

  • CHILE - Tasa de desempleo repuntó en febrero  

    En marzo habría un deterioro transitorio del mercado laboral en medio de nuevas cuarentenas.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Improved outlook supports rate hikes in 4Q21  

    We now expect the tightening cycle to begin in 4Q21.

  • COLOMBIA – Mild labor market recovery in February  

    The reintroduction of mobility restriction in March would likely result in another transitory loosening of the labor market.

  • CHILE - Reunión de Política Monetaria: TPM en 0,5% durante varios trimestres  

    El Banco Central está aplacando las expectativas del mercado de alzas de la TPM a fines de este año.

  • ARGENTINA – Sharp increase of activity in January  

    We forecast GDP growth of 6.0% for 2021, largely driven by a high statistical carryover (5.0%).

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable at 0.5% for several quarters  

    The central bank is downplaying market expectations of rate hikes later this year.

  • ARGENTINA – Trade balance posts sequential improvement in February  

    We expect higher commodity prices and import controls to boost the trade surplus this year

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Still on-hold, but now unanimously  

    Our baseline scenario considers stable rates at 1.75% for this year, but risks lean to an earlier lift-off

  • MEXICO – Temporarily lower manufacturing exports lead to narrower trade balance  

    We expect the trade surplus to narrow slightly in 2021 relative to 2020

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: on hold, as expected  

    Odds of further easing are low.

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP was soft in January  

    Manufacturing output and services sector are a temporary drag to activity

  • MEXICO – Retail sales slowed down in January  

    The retightening of social distancing measures affected retail sales

  • MEXICO – Upside inflation surprise in the first half of March  

    Energy prices exerted upward pressure.

  • ARGENTINA – GDP recovery in 4Q20, following easing of lockdown measures  

    We forecast GDP growth of 6.0% for 2021.

  • ARGENTINA – Primary fiscal deficit fell in February  

    Tax collection increased in real terms in the quarter ended in February, led by higher export taxes

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained soft in 4Q20  

    External demand is the main driver of the recovery

  • CHILE – Amplio superávit de cuenta corriente en 2020  

    Un tipo de cambio flexible, la caída de la demanda interna y términos de intercambio favorables llevaron a un superávit del 1,4% del PIB en 2020.

  • CHILE – Strong end to a dismal 2020 raises upside risks to our 6.5% growth forecast for this year  

    Drivers for growth are positive, but new lockdowns and the fading effect from pension withdrawals will be short-term drags ahead.

  • CHILE – Robusto final a un sombrío 2020 sesga al alza nuestra proyección de crecimiento del 6,5% par  

    El impulso del crecimiento es positivo, pero nuevas cuarentenas y la disipación del efecto del retiro previsional incidirán a la baja en el corto plazo.

  • COLOMBIA – Wide trade deficit at the start of the year  

    With restrictions lifted and business sentiment improving, imports are expected to resume their recovery path

  • CHILE – Large current account surplus in 2020  

    A flexible exchange rate, the domestic demand slump, and favorable terms of trade led to a 1.4% of GDP surplus in 2020.

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Comenzó la campaña de vacunación  

    Vemos riesgos a la baja a nuestra proyección de crecimiento del PIB de 3% para este año

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Alerta roja  

    La campaña de vacunación masiva no comenzó llevando a un aumento del descontento social.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Vaccination campaign has started  

    We see downside risks to our 3% GDP growth forecast.

  • COLOMBIA – Mild activity decline at the start of 2021  

    With most restrictions lifted in February, the activity hiccup is expected to be transitory

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: COVID-19 red alert   

    Downside risks to our 4% GDP growth projection

  • MEXICO – Soft industrial production in January  

    Worldwide temporary shortage of semiconductors is likely affecting manufacturing output

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: No rush  

    The agreement with the IMF looks increasingly distant

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Fiscal adjustment postponed  

    Fiscal consolidation is the key macro risk to monitor in the near term

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Slow start to vaccination campaign  

    More populist measures emerged from Congress as general elections near

  • MEXICO – February inflation driven by energy prices  

    Core inflation stood practically unchanged.

  • COLOMBIA – Still-low inflation in February  

    With the economic recovery advancing, to be further aided by surging oil prices, additional rate cuts are unlikely

  • CHILE – Lower-than-expected inflation in February  

    Inflationary pressures moderated and core inflation remains at historical lows.

  • CHILE – Las exportaciones de cobre continúan impulsando la balanza comercial  

    Amplio superávit pese a que las importaciones cobraron impulso en el margen

  • CHILE – Copper exports continue to boost trade balance  

    The wide balance came despite imports gaining momentum at the margin.

  • CHILE – Inflación menor a la esperada en febrero  

    Las presiones inflacionarias se moderaron y la inflación subyacente se mantiene en mínimos históricos

  • MEXICO – Internal demand slowed down in December  

    A negative base effect (Mexico’s black Friday) affected sequential private consumption.

  • MEXICO – 4Q20 Inflation Report: core inflation forecast path unchanged for 2021  

    The central bank also expects a better economic outlook for 2021 and 2022.

  • COLOMBIA – Mild CAD narrowing in 2020  

    We see stability for the CAD at (a wide) 3.4% of GDP this year

  • CHILE – Sequential GDP recovery continues  

    A pesar de la contracción interanual, mejoras secuenciales persistentes son un buen augurio para las perspectivas de recuperación.

  • PERU – Inflation in February surprised to the downside  

    Inflation remains above the BCRP’s central target of 2%

  • CHILE – Continúa la recuperación secuencial del PIB  

    A pesar de la contracción interanual, mejoras secuenciales persistentes son un buen augurio para las perspectivas de recuperación.

  • CHILE – Sluggish labor improvement in January  

    The economic reopening since January would bolster employment dynamics

  • MEXICO – Trade surplus narrowed at the margin  

    U.S. economic strong recovery and a soft internal demand will support the trade surplus in 2021

  • CHILE – Desaceleración transitoria de la actividad en enero  

    El Imacec se habría contraído 2,0% interanual en enero

  • CHILE – Lenta mejora laboral en enero  

    La reapertura económica desde enero impulsaría el dinamismo del empleo

  • COLOMBIA – Unfavorable labor market dynamics in January  

    A still fragile labor market was shaken by the new round of mobility restrictions.

  • CHILE – Transitory activity slowdown in January  

    IMACEC would contract 2% YoY in January.

  • MEXICO – GDP recovered further in 4Q20  

    External demand is benefiting the recovery

  • ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected trade surplus in January  

    We forecast a trade surplus of USD 17 billion for 2021, up from USD 12.5 billion in 2020

  • MEXICO – Wide current account surplus in 2020  

    Trade balance was supported by a strong recovery in external demand, poor internal demand and a weak currency

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: we now expect only one additional 25-bp interest rate cut  

    Tightening of external financial conditions likely to limit further easing

  • MEXICO – Higher energy prices drove inflation in the first half of February  

    Annual core inflation remained persistent

  • ARGENTINA – Activity recovery in 4Q20 did not prevent a sharp GDP contraction last year  

    We forecast GDP growth of 5.5% for 2021.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales deteriorated in December  

    The deterioration reflects tighter social distancing measures and a negative base effect

  • ARGENTINA – Slight reduction of primary fiscal deficit in January  

    We forecast a reduction in the primary fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP this year.

  • PERU – Economic activity collapsed in 2020 despite fiscal stimulus, helping a current account balanc  

    Final domestic demand was supported by easing of distancing measures and fiscal stimulus

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Slight activity contraction in 2020  

    For 2021, we estimate growth of 4% due to the normalization of activities.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Positive signs for inflation  

    We expect a weak labor market to reinforce disinflation this year.

  • COLOMBIA – Milder-than-expected GDP decline in 4Q20  

    The positive impact of monetary stimulus, the vaccination program, and higher oil prices would aid an activity bounce back this year

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Señales positivas para la inflación  

    Ajustamos nuestra proyección de inflación a 7% para fin de 2020, desde 8% anteriormente.

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Leve contracción de la actividad en 2020   

    Para 2021 estimamos un crecimiento de 4% debido a la normalización de actividades.

  • COLOMBIA – Mixed activity dynamics at the close of 2020   

    We expect a GDP contraction of 4.4% in 4Q20.

  • ARGENTINA – High inflation despite intervention on prices  

    Warning sign for the government as it seeks to reduce inflation, with an eye on the legislative election.

  • MEXICO – Better than expected Industrial production in December  

    Industrial production is closer to pre-pandemic levels driven by external demand

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Low inflation warrants prolonged monetary stimulus  

    Elevated risks and changes at the board make the path for rates less certain.

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: resuming rate cuts  

    We expect further easing over the next two meetings

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Significant support required, but not forever  

    With signs that the worst of the crisis has passed, more dedication towards the medium-term challenges would be required

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Facing a second wave   

    The vaccination campaign started

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Surfing the summer  

    The government will likely try to preserve the current precarious macro equilibrium.

  • MEXICO – Upside surprise in January’s inflation  

    Inflation was driven mainly by an increase in energy prices

  • CHILE – Otro amplio superávit comercial a inicios de 2021  

    La recuperación económica doméstica anticipada y el creciente déficit de ingresos serían contenidos por los altos precios del cobre este año


      < Volver