Itaú BBA - Macro Latam

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Nuevo proyecto de responsabilidad fiscal  

    Esperamos un crecimiento del PIB de de 4,0% para 2021

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Fronteras cerradas  

    Esperamos un rebote del PIB de 3,0% este año, con riesgos a la baja.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity gradually advanced in November  

    Despite the downside activity surprise, we still expect GDP to drop 7% in 2020.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Closed borders  

    For 2021, we maintain our growth forecast of 3.0%, with downside risks

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: New fiscal responsibility bill  

    For 2021, we expect a broad-based growth of 4.0%.

  • PERU – Solid sequential GDP growth in November  

    Non-natural resources sector supported November’s activity expansion

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Contained inflation creates scope for additional monetary easing?  

    A slow rollout of the vaccination program amplifies downside risks to activity.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation spiked in December, as expected  

    Noticeable acceleration in annualized quarterly inflation, which hit 54% in 4Q20.

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Ghosts still linger  

    Higher soy prices unlikely to help an unbalanced economy

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: A help from higher copper prices   

    More populist initiatives from Congress

  • A delicate start to 2021  

    A swift vaccination rollout could compensate a weaker start to 2021.

  • MEXICO – Further recovery of internal demand in October  

    Internal demand indicators remain far below pre-outbreak levels

  • MEXICO – Industrial production posted a solid sequential growth in November  

    Industrial production growth was driven by construction output

  • CHILE – Inflation ends 2020 at 3.0% target  

    The strong CLP performance and the re-introduction of mobility restriction measures would contain pressures ahead

  • CHILE – Inflación cierra el año en la meta del 3,0% del BCCh  

    Un peso más fuerte y medidas de distanciamiento social más estrictas contendrían presiones inflacionarias hacia adelante

  • MEXICO – Inflation fell in December despite core inflation increase  

    Non-core food prices exerted downward pressure, which was partly offset by a rebound in core inflation as the “Buen Fin” effect faded away.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: the easing cycle will likely resume soon, but there are risks  

    Deputy Governor Heath and Esquivel were the dissenting votes.

  • CHILE – A large trade surplus in 2020, helped by terms of trade  

    Dynamic consumption and recovering oil prices would lead to a narrower trade surpluses ahead

  • CHILE – Términos de intercambio favorecieron un amplio superávit comercial en 2020  

    El consumo dinámico y la recuperación de los precios del petróleo conducirían a un menor superávit comercial en el futuro

  • COLOMBIA – Upside inflation surprise to end 2020, but core inflationary pressures limited  

    Renewed mobility restrictions and significant COP appreciation will keep inflationary pressures contained at the start of 2021.

  • CHILE – Labor market improvement continued in November  

    The recovery at the margin is reflecting the economic reopening and economic stimuli.

  • CHILE – Actividad vuelve a crecer en noviembre  

    Aunque el comercio se mantendría dinámico, las restricciones de movilidad harían que la senda de recuperación sea irregular.

  • CHILE – La mejora del mercado laboral continuó en noviembre  

    La mejora en el margen refleja la reapertura de la economía y las medidas de estímulo

  • CHILE – Activity returns to growth in November  

    While commerce will remain dynamic, tighter mobility restrictions mean that the recovery path is set to be uneven.

  • COLOMBIA – Self-employment driving labor market gains in November  

    Incipient signs of improvement in employment could be countered by social distancing measures and the minimum wage increase.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity surprised to the upside in October  

    All sectors posted sequential gains in the quarter ended in October.

  • MEXICO – Activity recovery continued in October  

    Monthly GDP continued recovering on a sequential basis.

  • MEXICO – Inflation picked up in 1H December, reflecting the end of “El Buen Fin”  

    The numbers confirm that the effect of Black Friday on November inflation was transitory

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Uncertainty favors retention of significant impulse  

    We see rates stable at 0.5% throughout 2021 and part of 2022

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Board majority eyes inflation expectations  

    The minority is concerned with the possibility of a wider-than-estimated negative output gap.

  • ARGENTINA – Primary fiscal deficit narrowed in November  

    We see downside risk to our primary deficit forecast of 6.9% of GDP this year

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus collapsed in November  

    We see downside risk to our trade surplus forecast of USD 15.0 billion for this year.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A split stay-on-hold decision  

    A split board and the change in guard mean a deeper easing cycle cannot be ruled out

  • COLOMBIA – Wide trade deficit in October  

    The economic reopening and signs of a recovering labor market are supporting improved import dynamics.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand recovered in 3Q20  

    Domestic demand recovered at a slower pace than the external demand

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: further rate cuts likely in the near term  

    We expect Banxico to resume cutting the policy rate as soon as 1Q21.

  • ARGENTINA – GDP rebounds in 3Q20 following the easing of lockdowns  

    We recently raised our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -11% from -12%

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Activity and inflation on the rise  

    The economy continued to recover in the beginning of 4Q20.

  • ARGENTINA – A small respite for inflation in November  

    Lower-than-expected headline inflation does not brighten the cloudy horizon

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: COVID-19 cases accelerated  

    Downside risks to our GDP growth forecasts.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity recovery advances in October  

    With the economic reopening enduring at the backend of 2020, the continuance of the activity recovery is expected ahead.

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Marcha atrás con la reapertura  

    El distanciamiento social afectaría la recuperación.

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Actividad e inflación en aumento  

    Revisamos al alza nuestra proyección de crecimiento del PIB de este año a -1,0% desde -1,5% anteriormente.

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Three presidents in less than a week  

    Solid macro fundamentals offset political turbulence.

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Deal with IMF punted to 2021  

    Macro outlook remains challenging.

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: With a little help from the IMF  

    The government accessed the FCL amid a challenging fiscal situation, while a tax-reform is expected in 2021.

  • MEXICO – Inflation in November slowed down due to the “Buen Fin”  

    A fall in non-core fruits and vegetable prices also exerted downward pressure.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Still-uncertain scenario calls for prolonged monetary impulse  

    Investment dynamics would play a key role in the CB’s reaction function.

  • CHILE – Menor inflación en noviembre destaca naturaleza transitoria de recientes sorpresas al alza  

    La inflación estuvo por debajo de lo esperado, sugiriendo que la presión del retiro de pensiones pasó

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation falls further in November  

    Inflation for 2020 will likely come in closer to 1.5%, rather than our current 2% call.

  • CHILE – Las exportaciones mineras se mantuvieron robustas en noviembre  

    La debilidad de las importaciones perdura conforme la incertidumbre contiene a la inversión y se mantienen bajas las importaciones de energía

  • CHILE – Mining exports remain robust in November  

    Imports remain weak as uncertainty restricts investments and the energy drag persists.

  • CHILE – November inflation fall underscores transitory nature of recent upside surprises  

    Inflation came below expectations, hinting that pressure form pension withdrawal faded.

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit correction continued in 3Q20, but to still-wide levels   

    Despite soft domestic demand, weak terms-of-trade mean Colombia’s trade deficit correction is slow.

  • CHILE – Servicios inciden a la baja en la actividad en octubre  

    A pesar de las señales de recuperación, el PIB se mantiene muy por debajo de los niveles pre-pandémicos.

  • PERU – Inflation surprised to the upside in November  

    We now expect end of year 2020 inflation at 2.0% (compared to our previous forecast of 1.6%).

  • CHILE – Services drag activity down in October  

    Despite signs of a recovery, GDP remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market recovery continues in October  

    Self-employment leads job recoveries, but private salaried posts are also posting gains

  • CHILE – Ventas minoristas lideran el crecimiento de la actividad en octubre  

    Con la mejora de la producción industrial y el aumento de las ventas minoristas, esperamos que el Imacec registre se expanda por primera vez desde febrero.

  • CHILE - Retail-led activity rise in October  

    With industrial production improving and retail sales surging, we expect the monthly GDP proxy to rise for the first time since February.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Reinforcing stable rates  

    The unanimous decision is consistent a prolonged period of rate stability.

  • CHILE – Job recovery continued in October  

    Lower unemployment was led by job gains at the margin

  • CHILE – La recuperación del mercado laboral continuó en octubre  

    El menor desempleo estuvo liderado por ganancias de empleo en el margen

  • MEXICO – Further improvement in October’s trade balance  

    Manufacturing exports surpassed pre-outbreak levels

  • MEXICO – GDP recovery confirmed in 3Q20  

    The recovery was driven mainly by the manufacturing output

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: not the end of the easing cycle  

    Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath was the dissenting vote.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales recovered in 3Q20  

    Still retail sales remain below pre-outbreak levels.

  • MEXICO – 3Q20 Inflation Report: slightly higher inflation for 2021, but additional rate cuts are sti  

    Doubts over how persistent is the recent fall in inflation.

  • MEXICO – Sharp improvement of external accounts in 3Q20  

    The improvement in the current account balance was supported by the trade balance of goods.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity rebounded in 3Q20  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 12% for this year, but the risks are tilted to the upside

  • MEXICO – Downside surprise in 1H Nov inflation, linked to “El Buen Fin”  

    Core goods non-food inflation slowed down amid Mexico’s black Friday

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus fell again in October  

    We recently revised our trade surplus forecast down to USD 15.0 billion

  • ARGENTINA – Lower-than-expected primary deficit in October  

    We forecast a primary deficit of 6.9% of GDP this year, up from 0.4% in 2019.

  • PERU – GDP rebounded in 3Q20, amid narrowing current account deficit and deteriorating fiscal balanc  

    Final domestic demand recovery is supported by public and private demand

  • CHILE – Consumption leads activity recovery in 3Q20  

    Monetary and fiscal stimuli and individual liquidity injections would consolidate the recovery ahead.

  • CHILE – El consumo lidera la recuperación de la actividad en el 3T20  

    Los importantes estímulos monetarios y fiscales junto a las inyecciones de liquidez, consolidarían la recuperación hacia adelante.

  • CHILE – Cuenta corriente prácticamente balanceada en 3T20  

    Hacia adelante, la recuperación de la actividad llevará a déficits más amplios en la cuenta corriente

  • CHILE – Near-balanced current account in 3Q20  

    Going forward, the consolidation of an activity recovery would lead to gradually wider current account deficits

  • COLOMBIA – Gradual activity recovery initiated in 3Q20  

    Despite the loosening of mobility restrictions over the course of the quarter, subnormal activity endured

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Strong sequential rebound in activity in 3Q20  

    Tax collection improved in 3Q20 in line with economic activity.

  • PERU – GDP proxy posted a solid recovery in 3Q20  

    Non-natural and natural resource sectors recovered further in September

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: Fuerte rebote secuencial de la actividad en 3T20   

    La recaudación mejoró en 3T20 en sintonía con la economía.

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: El banco central mantendrá el sesgo expansivo de la política monetaria  

    La actividad se recuperó secuencialmente en 3T20 pero el cierre de fronteras durante la temporada turística recortarán la recuperación.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: The central bank will maintain its expansionary bias in monetary policy  

    The closure of borders during tourist season will hamper the recovery

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Somewhat more pragmatic   

    The government has made a slight shift toward orthodox economic policies

  • COLOMBIA – Retail sales drive economic recovery in 3Q20   

    The reopening of the economy, improving private sentiment and significant monetary stimulus would sustain the recovery process

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: The end of the easing cycle  

    We cannot rule out further cuts ahead if the activity recovery underwhelms and inflation expectations retreat

  • COLOMBIA – Mild trade deficit correction in September, as commodity drag persists  

    Milder import declines suggest a gradual domestic demand recovery is underway

  • ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected inflation in October  

    Inflation was markedly above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 3.1%.

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: a pause, not the end of the easing cycle  

    We expect Banxico to resume the easing cycle next year.

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: An earlier-than-expected new president  

    Heightened political turmoil amid market-unfriendly measures

  • MEXICO – Sharp industrial production recovery in 3Q20  

    Industrial production recovery is driven by the manufacturing output

  • MEXICO – Inflation advanced further in October  

    We now expect inflation at 3.9% for yearend 2020

  • CHILE – Las exportaciones de cobre impulsaron otro amplio superávit comercial en octubre  

    La reapertura de la economía y el importante estimulo en curso moderaría el superávti comercial hacia adelante.

  • CHILE – Copper exports led to another wide trade surplus in October  

    The economic reopening and significant stimuli in place should moderate the trade surpluses ahead

  • COLOMBIA – Downside inflation surprise in October  

    Muted inflationary pressures and a gradual activity recovery support a prolonged period of rates on-hold

  • MEXICO – Internal demand continued recovering in August  

    Still, internal demand indicators remain far below pre-outbreak levels

  • CHILE – Large upside inflation surprise in October  

    Inflation will likely end the year close to the central bank’s 3% target

  • CHILE – Gran sorpresa alcista de inflación en octubre  

    La inflación terminaría el año cerca de la meta del 3% del banco central.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Improved outlook, but rates likely to stay low  

    The average policy rate would be marginally higher than the October median analyst expectations

  • CHILE – Activity improvement continued in September  

    GDP sits around 7% below the level prior to the pandemic, recovering from the cycle low of -16.2% in May

  • CHILE – La recuperación de la actividad continuó en septiembre  

    El PIB se encuentra en torno a un 7% por debajo del nivel previo a la pandemia, recuperándose del mínimo del ciclo de -16,2% en mayo

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: No reason to adjust expansionary stance  

    Flexibility on the unconventional measures will depend on possible financial market volatility ahead

  • COLOMBIA – Employment recovering in 3Q20  

    While the labor market is recovering, numerous uncertainties point to a gradual improvement ahead

  • CHILE – Participation and job gains at the margin signal labor market recovery underway in 3Q20  

    Lingering economic uncertainty would contain the pace of the recovery ahead

  • MEXICO – Flash GDP rebounded in 3Q20  

    Activity recovery is driven mainly by the industrial sector

  • MEXICO – Broadly stable fiscal balances as of the 3Q20  

    The MoF deteriorated slightly their fiscal balance estimates for 2020

  • CHILE – Strong activity to close 3Q20  

    With the economic reopening consolidating, as health indicators remain controlled, the activity recovery is expected to persist ahead

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Decision: The easing cycle has likely ended  

    Developments on the global front highlight that significant uncertainty persists

  • CHILE – Mejoras en la participación y el empleo en el margen revelan que la recuperación del mercado  

    La persistente incertidumbre económica contendría el ritmo de la recuperación hacia adelante

  • CHILE – Robusta actividad al cierre del 3T20  

    La consolidación de la reapertura de la economía, a medida que los indicadores sanitarios se mantienen controlados, permitiría que la recuperación avance.

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: Sin razones para ajustar la postura expansiva  

    La flexibilidad de las medidas no convencionales estará supeditada a la volatilidad del mercado financiero.

  • MEXICO – Another large trade surplus in September  

    The improvement in the trade balance is mainly supported by manufacturing exports

  • MEXICO – Activity recovery continued in August, but at a slower pace  

    Industrial output is recovering at a faster pace than services sector

  • MEXICO – Retail sales recovered further in August  

    The easing of distancing measures supported the recovery

  • ARGENTINA – Economic activity index improved in August  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 12% this year.

  • MEXICO – Inflation was above expectations in 1H October  

    Persistence in inflation increases the odds of Banxico pausing its easing cycle

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus declined in September  

    Our forecast for a surplus of USD 17.5 billion for this year has downside risks.

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened in 3Q20  

    Our forecast for the primary fiscal deficit this year stands at 6.9% of GDP (from 0.4% in 2019).

  • COLOMBIA – Despite weak imports, trade correction remained sluggish in August  

    Low terms-of-trade and still weak global activity mean Colombia’s external imbalances would persist.

  • PERU –Gradual recovery continued in August  

    Non-natural resource sectors supported the recovery in monthly GDP

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Steady on  

    The central bank would retain a significant monetary stimulus ahead, while adjustments to unconventional measures will be data dependent

  • CHILE – Reunión de Política Monetaria: Postura firme  

    El Banco Central mantendría un estímulo monetario significativo y usará medidas no convencionales con flexibilidad, dependiendo de los datos.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity disappoints in August  

    Disappointing activity at the start of 2H20 likely mean the GDP contraction this year would exceed our 6% call.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation in-line with expectations in September  

    Core inflation slowed in September.

  • CHILE – Widespread upside inflation surprise in September  

    The annual inflation uptick is likely transitory amid a low base of comparison.

  • CHILE – Sorpresa alcista generalizada de inflación en septiembre  

    El repunte anual de la inflación sería transitorio, en medio de una base de comparación baja.

  • MEXICO – Above target inflation in September  

    Core goods inflation remained persistent

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: disagreement on further easing  

    Available room for maneuver will be data dependent

  • CHILE – Significant trade surplus in 3Q20  

    Improving consumer import dynamics is containing the surplus widening.

  • CHILE – Amplio superávit comercial en 3T20  

    Mejora en la dinámica de las importaciones de consumo está conteniendo la ampliación del superávit comercial

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation surprised to the upside in September  

    Despite the widespread acceleration at the margin, inflation remained low in September.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: The decline in GDP this year likely to be lower than anticipated  

    Agricultural sector moderates fall in GDP

  • MEXICO – Internal demand recovered further in July  

    However, momentum remains weak

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Inflation expectations decrease  

    We maintain our inflation forecast for this year of 9.5%.

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: Disminuyen las expectativas de inflación   

    Nuestra proyección de inflación para 2020 se ubica en 9,5%

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: La caída del PIB de este año sería menor a la anticipada  

    Sector agrícola modera caída del PIB

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Impeachment averted, but risks remain  

    Political environment remains shaky

  • CHILE - La recuperación de la actividad decepciona en agosto  

    Servicios, construcción y manufactura fueron las principales incidencias a la baja, mientras que la mejora del comercio contuvo parcialmente la caída.

  • Pause in easing cycle as fiscal austerity continues  

    Narrower fiscal deficits for 2020 and 2021

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Relying on controls  

    The central bank has tigthtened exchange controls further

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Knocking on the IMF’s door  

    The FCL eligibility shows Colombia’s structural strengths, but the need to access it reflects a more challenging fiscal scenario.

  • PERU – Inflation accelerated in September  

    However, inflation continues to be below BCRP inflation target

  • CHILE – Activity recovery underwhelms in August  

    Services, construction, and manufacturing remained key drags, while commerce gains partly contained the decline.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market dynamics improve in August  

    The gradual reopening of the economy aided self-employment.

  • CHILE – Still weak labor market in August, despite some signs of improvement at the margin  

    Improvement of hours worked signals that the worst has likely passed

  • CHILE – Recuperación del comercio minorista en agosto  

    Levantamiento de las restricciones de movilidad y pagos del retiro de los fondos de pensiones, consolidarían la recuperación impulsada por el comercio.

  • CHILE – Mercado laboral aún débil en agosto, a pesar de algunas señales de mejora en el margen  

    La mejora de las horas trabajadas apunta a que lo peor habría pasado

  • CHILE – Retail surge in August  

    Further easing of mobility restrictions, along with added pension payouts would consolidate a retail-led recovery

  • ARGENTINA – Current account balance showed strong surplus in 2Q20  

    we see upside risks to our forecast of a current account surplus of 0.6% of GDP for this year.

  • ARGENTINA – Economic activity rebounded in July  

    We expect the positive trend to consolidate with the easing of lockdowns in August and September

  • MEXICO – Strong improvement in August trade balance  

    The manufacturing sector is driving the economic recovery

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP recovered further in July   

    The recovery was driven mainly by the manufacturing sector

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Easing cycle extended, but likely concluded; FCL withdrawal anno  

    A split decision and capital flight concerns amid negative real interest rates suggest that the easing cycle likely ended.

  • ARGENTINA – Stronger-than-expected trade surplus in August  

    Imports continued to contract as internal demand remained weak

  • MEXICO – Another higher-than-expected inflation number in 1H September  

    Core goods inflation continues to be at a high level

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: an expected 25-bp rate cut before an easing cycle pause  

    Further monetary easing unlikely at least until the end of this year.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales recovered further in July  

    Still, retail sales are 12% below pre-outbreak levels

  • ARGENTINA – GDP collapsed in 2Q20 on negative effects of lockdowns  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 12.7% this year

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit worsened in August but at a slower pace  

    Our forecast for the primary fiscal deficit this year stands at 6.9% of GDP (from 0.4% in 2019),

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand collapsed in 2Q20  

    Weak domestic demand in 2Q20 reflect the negative shock from COVID-19

  • COLOMBIA – Weak commodity exports contain trade deficit correction in July  

    Recovering, but still low terms-of-trade and dampened global activity mean Colombia’s external account imbalances would persist ahead

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Shock magnitude calls for prolonged monetary impulse  

    Despite the less pessimistic outlook, ample stimulus is set to remain in place

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation rose in August  

    Headline inflation increased in August, in line with expectations and led by core items.

  • CHILE – Minutas de la Reunión de Política Monetaria: La magnitud del choque exige un estímulo moneta  

    A pesar de perspectivas menos negativas, un amplio estímulo monetario se mantendría vigente

  • PERU – Economic recovery continued in July  

    Natural and non-natural resources sectors are supporting the recovery.

  • COLOMBIA – Slower-than-expected activity recovery in July  

    We revised our forecast for the July monthly coincident indicator (ISE) to a decline of 9.2%, only a modest improvement from the 11.1% drop in June.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production recovered further in July  

    The manufacturing sector is the main driver of the recovery

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: The government aims to reduce the fiscal deficit and inflation  

    The budget bill foresees a reduction of the consolidated fiscal deficit to 3.8% of GDP in 2021.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: The government plans to reduce the fiscal deficit gradually  

    The budget bill aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP in 2021, from an estimated 7% for this year.

  • MEXICO – Higher inflation in August  

    Core goods inflation accelerated further

  • MEXICO – 2021 Budget: betting on responsible public finances, but risks remain  

    Optimistic oil production targets and GDP growth estimates risks missing fiscal targets

  • Escenario Macro – Paraguay: El gobierno plantea reducir el déficit fiscal gradualmente  

    Para ello debe conseguir también la aprobación de un proyecto de convergencia fiscal para 2024.

  • COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation in August  

    A wide output gap and relatively stable currency ought to limit price increases going forward

  • CHILE – Otro amplio superávit comercial en agosto  

    Señales de que la dinámica de las importaciones está mejorando contendría la ampliación del superávit comercial hacia adelante

  • CHILE – Unsurprising August inflation  

    The economic reopening and oil price recovery will counter dampened domestic demand, preventing inflation falling significantly further

  • CHILE – Inflación de agosto sin sorpresas  

    La reapertura de la economía y mayores precios del petróleo compensarán la debilidad de la demanda doméstica, limitando una marcada caída de la inflación.

  • CHILE – Another large trade surplus in August  

    Signs that import dynamics are improving would contain further surplus widening

  • Escenario Macro – Uruguay: El gobierno apunta a reducir el déficit fiscal y la inflación  

    El presupuesto prevé una reducción del déficit consolidado a 3,8% del PIB en 2021.

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Open for business  

    The central bank enters a wait-and-see mode, assessing the evolution of the economy while leaving the door open for further easing.

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: A chance to turn the page  

    Argentina will seek an agreement with the IMF following a successful debt restructuring with private creditors.

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Policy uncertainty originating in Congress  

    Fiscal accounts deteriorate amid COVID-19 shock

  • CHILE – Informe de Política Monetaria: Lento cierre de la brecha del producto, pese a favorables pro  

    La evolución del escenario económico estará determinada por el avance del Covid-19 y las medidas de contención.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Slow output gap narrowing, despite more optimistic growth forecasts  

    The macroeconomic scenario evolvement continues to be determined by the development of Covid-19 and containment measures

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrowing continues in 2Q20  

    Weak internal demand, recovering terms-of-trade, and a swifter global rebound will aid some further CAD narrowing

  • CHILE – Reunión de Política Monetaria: Reafirmando tasas bajas por mucho tiempo (pero no para siempr  

    La compra de bonos de Tesorería podría ser usado para enfrentar problemas de liquidez, pero no para estimular la demanda agregada.

  • PERU – Below target inflation in August  

    Headline inflation stood below the central bank target for twelfth consecutive month

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Reaffirming low-for-long (but not forever) rates and no government  

    Government bond purchases could be used to address liquidity issues, but not boost aggregate demand.

  • CHILE – July activity confirms recovery is underway  

    Improvements on the health front, along significant monetary and fiscal impulses, are contributing to the recovery.

  • COLOMBIA – Still unfavorable labor market dynamics in July  

    As the mandatory quarantine was extended until the end of August, the labor market recovery is set to be gradual

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A cut before a pause  

    The board is likely to evaluate how the economy progresses, while keeping the door ajar for further easing

  • CHILE – Milder-than-expected activity drop in July  

    With the economy reopening, cash transfers and pension withdrawals materializing, the activity recovery advancing.

  • CHILE – Caída de actividad menor a la esperada en julio  

    Las reaperturas y la materialización de transferencias y retiro de pensiones ayudan a la recuperación de la actividad.

  • CHILE – Weak labor market endures in July  

    Historic job losses, record low participation and reduced work hours are consistent with only a gradual activity recovery scenario

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: further (limited) easing contingent on data  

    While two members advocated for further easing, other two seem more cautious

  • MEXICO – Strong trade balance in July  

    Manufacturing exports recovered at a faster pace than non-oil imports

  • MEXICO – 2Q20 Inflation Report: weaker activity outlook, with temporarily higher inflation  

    Inflation forecasts increased for 2020

  • MEXICO – 2Q20 GDP collapsed, but recovery started in June  

    Still monthly GDP is far below pre-outbreak levels

  • ARGENTINA – Strong trade surplus in July  

    Trade surplus widened in July, on weak imports.

  • MEXICO – Zero current account deficit in 2Q20  

    Net portfolio flows and FDI deteriorated amid uncertainty surrounding the outbreak


      < Volver