Itaú BBA - Wider than expected trade surplus in March

Macro Brazil

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Wider than expected trade surplus in March

abril 1, 2020

Stronger-than-expected exports yield higher-than-antecipated trade surplus in March


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

 

 The trade balance in March was positive by $4.7 billion, above our expectations ($3.5 billion surplus) and market estimates ($ 4.0 billion surplus). Compared to our forecasts, the surprise was due to stronger-than-expected exports in the last week of the month.

 The balance resulted from $19.2 billion exports and $ 14.5 billion imports. The number is slightly above the $4.3 billion surplus posted one year earlier. The annualized seasonally adjusted quarterly moving average trade surplus receded from $37.4 billion to $31.5 billion. 

 March data still do not reflect the slowdown in global trade or the decline in economic activity in Brazil due to the Coronavirus epidemic. In coming reports, we believe that both exports and imports are likely to show significant declines. 

 

Julia Gottlieb
Thales Caramella


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 



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