Itaú BBA - Unemployment increases in 4Q18

Macro Brazil

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Unemployment increases in 4Q18

enero 31, 2019

The result suggests that the output gap opened again during that quarter

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

• According to the national household survey (PNAD Contínua), Brazil’s nation-wide unemployment rate remained at 11.6% in the quarter ended in December, as in the quarter ended in November. The reading was higher than our estimate and the median of market expectations (both at 11.4%).

• Using our seasonal adjustment, unemployment increased 0.23 p.p. to 12.2% in 4Q18. Along with the decline in capacity utilization metrics, the result suggests that the output gap opened again during that quarter.

• Year-over-year growth in the real wage bill slowed to 1.7% from 2.2%, driven by weaker gains in employment.
 

Artur Manoel Passos
Alexandre Gomes da Cunha

 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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