Itaú BBA - Trade surplus of $6.1 billion in April

Macro Brazil

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Trade surplus of $6.1 billion in April

mayo 2, 2018

April figures continued to show a large trade surplus, notwithstanding the small decline at the margin.

The trade surplus reached $6.1 billion in April, slightly below our estimate ($6.3 billion) and in line with market consensus ($6.15 billion). The trade balance over 12 months shrank to $66 billion, and the seasonally-adjusted annualized quarterly moving average receded to $70 billion from $73 billion, driven by stronger imports at the margin.

Exports totaled $19.9 billion, virtually unchanged vs. the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms. Imports totaled $13.8, billion rising 4.3% mom/sa. Compared to April 2017, exports dropped 3.4%, but imports climbed 10.3%.

Exports fell 3.4% yoy, adjusting for the number of working days, with lower sales of basic materials (-2.9%), semi-manufactured goods (-2.7%), and manufactured items (-4.0%). On a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, exports were virtually unchanged. Shipments of basic materials dropped for a third consecutive month, by 0.8%, but were offset by higher sales of semi-manufactured (4.9%) and manufactured items (3.3%). Exports have apparently stabilized at a high level. 

Imports advanced again in year-over-year terms, by 10.3%, with higher purchases of capital goods (36.2%), intermediate goods (6.3%), consumer goods (12.2%), and fuels and lubricants (6.3%). On a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, imports went up 4.3%, with widespread increases that reached capital goods (11.6%), intermediate goods (5,4%), durable consumer goods (8.3%), and non-durable goods (2.4%).  

April figures continued to show a large trade surplus, notwithstanding the small decline at the margin. Exports remain high, but imports started to increase, although are still at historically-low levels. We maintain our expectation of smaller trade results than in 2017 in the next years due to the rebound in economic activity.

 

Julia Gottlieb



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