Itaú BBA - Trade surplus of $4.5 billion in May

Macro Brazil

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Trade surplus of $4.5 billion in May

junio 1, 2020

The May trade balance continued to show the slowdown in global trade and, in particular, the decline in domestic economic activity


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

 The trade balance in May was positive by $4.5 billion, beating our forecast ($3.6 billion surplus) and market estimates ($4.3 billion surplus). A sharper-than-expected drop in imports in the last week of the month was behind the surprise vs. our call. 

 The balance resulted from $17.9 billion exports and $13.4 billion imports and is weaker than the $5.7 billion surplus posted one year earlier. It is worth mentioning that imports were inflated by the purchase of one oil-drilling rig for $2.7 billion. The annualized seasonally adjusted quarterly moving average for the trade balance receded to $50 billion from $52 billion. Excluding the specific deal involving the rig, the quarterly moving average would have reached $61 billion.

 May figures reflect the slowdown in global trade and, in particular, the decline in economic activity in Brazil due to the coronavirus epidemic. In upcoming releases, exports as well as imports should remain at lower levels than those seen recently.


Julia Gottlieb
Thales Caramella


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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