Itaú BBA - Retail sales disappoint market estimates in June

Macro Brazil

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Retail sales disappoint market estimates in June

agosto 7, 2019

Consumption remains in a moderate recovery trend.


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

• Broad retail sales were stable on a seasonally-adjusted basis in June, lower than market expectations (0.6%) and in line with our forecast. The May reading was revised upward by 0.5%.

• Core retail sales (excluding vehicles and construction material) expanded 0.2% mom/sa, below market estimates and our call (0.5%).

• In 2Q19, broad retail sales increased 1.2% qoq/sa, reinforcing our view of continuing moderate growth in consumer spending, driven by expanding loans to individuals and moderate growth in the real wage bill.

• We forecast 0.5% qoq/sa growth in household consumption in 2Q19.
 

Luka Barbosa
Alexandre Gomes da Cunha

Matheus Felipe Fuck


 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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