Itaú BBA - Positive surprise in industrial production concentrated in mining/extractive

Macro Brazil

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Positive surprise in industrial production concentrated in mining/extractive

octubre 1, 2019

Recovery in mining/extraction, while manufacturing remains slow.


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  Industrial production climbed 0.8% mom/sa in August, beating market expectations (+0.2%) and our forecast (+0.3%).

  Weighing 11% in the industrial production indicator, mining/extraction was fully responsible for the surprise by advancing 6.6% mom/sa. Manufacturing (89% weight) expanded 0.2%, slightly weaker than our call (+0.3%).

  The two components closely related to investment declined, with capital goods falling 0.4% and construction material sliding 0.5%, suggesting no recovery trend in investment.

  Our preliminary estimate for industrial production in September is a gain of 0.7% mom/sa. Our preliminary forecast for 3Q19 GDP was revised upward to +0.4% qoq/sa (from +0.3% previously).


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Alexandre Gomes da Cunha
Matheus Felipe Fuck



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