Itaú BBA - No rebound to pre-stoppages levels in retail sales in June

Macro Brazil

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No rebound to pre-stoppages levels in retail sales in June

agosto 10, 2018

Auto and construction material recovered, but supermarket and fuel sales recede further

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 
 

Core retail sales extended the previous month’s decline and dropped 0.3% mom/sa in June, disappointing the median of market expectations (0.1%) and our estimate (-0.1%).

Broad retail sales (including vehicles and construction material) climbed 2.5%, beating the median of market expectations (2.1%) and our call (1.6%). However, the increase was not enough to offset the 5.1% slide in May caused by the truckers’ strike.

For the time being, we expect growth for core retail (0.5%) and broad retail sales (0.4%) in July, at a pace that is still not enough to go back to pre-stoppages levels.
 

Artur Manoel Passos
Alexandre Gomes da Cunha

 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 



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