Itaú BBA - Lower participation rate prevents steeper growth in unemployment rate

Macro Brazil

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Lower participation rate prevents steeper growth in unemployment rate

junio 30, 2020

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reaches 12.6% in May


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 The unemployment rate reached 12.9% in May, close to market expectations (13.1%) and above our call (12.3%). The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reached 12.6%, up from 12.1% in the quarter ended in April.

 The participation rate receded to 56.8% seasonally adjusted, from 59% in the previous month. If the participation rate had remained constant at the February level (61.8%), the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate would have reached 19.6% in May.

 Seasonally adjusted formal employment decreased by 594 thousand jobs in the quarter ended in May compared to the quarter ended in April, while informal employment decreased by 2.3 million.


Luka Machado Barbosa
Matheus Felipe Fuck


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 



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