Itaú BBA - Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP climbs 0.5% in February

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Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP climbs 0.5% in February

abril 13, 2018

Monthly increase is consistent with manufacturing and service readings

Itaú Unibanco’s monthly GDP (PM-Itaú) [1]  climbed 0.5% mom/sa in February. In the quarter ended in February, our indicator expanded 0.5% vs. the quarter ended in November.
 

For March, based on already released coincident indicators, we forecast, for the time being, a small gain of 0.3% mom/sa in PM-Itaú.

Monthly increase is consistent with manufacturing and service readings

Itaú Unibanco monthly GDP rose 0.5% mom/sa in February. Compared to the year-earlier period, the advance in the indicator slowed to 0.5% from 1.1% in January. In the quarter ended in February, it expanded 0.5% vs. the quarter ended in November, a result that is consistent with our forecast for 1Q18 GDP.

According to census bureau IBGE, industrial production and service sector real revenue increased somewhat in February. On the other hand, retail sales (both the core and broad concepts, with the latter including vehicles and construction material) were slightly negative.

Breaking down PM-Itaú by components, 7 out of 13 indicators that form the monthly index posted gains. Retail had the biggest seasonally-adjusted monthly advance (0.7%), followed by information services (0,5%). Industrial utility services experienced the sharpest decline (-2.3% mom/sa).

For March, based on already released coincident indicators, we forecast, for the time being, a small increase of 0.3% mom/sa in PM-Itaú.

It is worth noting that we revised our monthly economic activity indicator at the end of 2017. The revised series is more closely correlated to the quarterly GDP published by IBGE. For the complete methodology, please refer to the report Revision of Itaú Unibanco’s Monthly GDP series.
 

 


[1] The Itaú Unibanco Monthly GDP series (PM-Itaú), seasonally adjusted and not adjusted, are both available on Bloomberg terminals. 

To access those, type PIBIU or PIBISA . On the Broadcast service, access the index with the ticker PIBIU or PIBIUD (seasonally adjusted). They are also available on our site: https://www.itau.com.br/itaubba-en/economic-analysis/our-economic-series/itau-unibanco-monthly-gdp


 

Artur Manoel Passos
Alexandre Gomes da Cunha



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