Itaú BBA - IPCA rises 0.32% in January, printing below estimates

Macro Brazil

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IPCA rises 0.32% in January, printing below estimates

febrero 8, 2019

Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in February is a 0.28% increase

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

• The consumer price index IPCA climbed 0.32% in January, printing below our forecast and the median of market estimates (both at 0.37%). The index had risen 0.15% in the previous month and 0.29% in January 2018. The year-over-year change accelerated somewhat to 3.78% from 3.75% in 2018. Food and beverages (0.22 p.p.) and personal expenses (0.07 p.p.) provided the biggest upward contributions during the month. On the other hand, apparel provided a negative contribution (-0.07 p.p.). The lower-than-expected change in industrial items was behind the biggest deviation from our forecast and more than offset the sharper-than-expected rise in service prices. Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in February is a 0.28% increase that would push the year-over-year rate down slightly to 3.74%. For the full year, we expect the IPCA to climb 3.6%, driven by increases of 3.3% in market-set prices and 4.5% in regulated prices. 

Elson Teles
Economist

 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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