Itaú BBA - IPCA rises 0.26% in June and 2.13% yoy

Macro Brazil

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IPCA rises 0.26% in June and 2.13% yoy

julio 10, 2020

July’s IPCA inflation below expectations. Core inflation measures remain on a benign path.


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 The consumer price index IPCA climbed 0.26% in June, printing somewhat below our forecast (0.29%) and the median of market expectations (0.30%). Compared to our forecast, we note slightly lower-than-anticipated food and gasoline inflation.

 Core inflation measures remain low. Underlying service inflation stood out by rising 0.10% during the month and having its year-over-year change recede to 2.7% from 2.8%. 

 Upcoming IPCA readings tend to sustain the benign dynamics, with pressure concentrated on regulated items.  We forecast increases of 0.53% in July, 0.09% in August, and 0.15% in September. We expect the IPCA to rise 1.8% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021.

 

Julia Passabom


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 



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