Itaú BBA - IPCA moves 0.07% in March and 3.30% year-over-year

Macro Brazil

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IPCA moves 0.07% in March and 3.30% year-over-year

abril 9, 2020

March’s IPCA inflation came in at 0.07% mom, slightly below market expectations


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

 

 The consumer price index IPCA moved 0.07% in March, printing somewhat below our forecast (0.10%) and the median of market expectations (0.12%). Auto fuels (-1.9%) and airfares (-16.8%) experienced noteworthy declines. Importantly, this report incorporates some data gathered in non-face-to-face meetings (websites, phone calls or e-mail).

 Core inflation measures remain at comfortable levels. Underlying service inflation went up slightly by 0.13% in today’s report, pushing the year-over-year change down to 3.3% (from 3.4%). Underlying inflation in industrial goods rose 0.08% during the month while its year-over-year change receded to 1.8% from 2.0%. The year-over-year average of core inflation measures is still hovering around 3%.   

 Upcoming IPCA readings tend to remain low. According to our forecasts, the IPCA will rise 0.09% in April, show 0.20% deflation in May and go up 0.09% in June. We anticipate increases of 2.7% this year and 3.3% in 2021.

 

Julia Passabom


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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