Itaú BBA - IPCA falls -0.04% in September reaching 2.89% year-over-year

Macro Brazil

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IPCA falls -0.04% in September reaching 2.89% year-over-year

octubre 9, 2019

IPCA falls -0.04% in September with core inflation measures lower than expected


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

• The consumer price index IPCA fell -0.04% in September, printing below our estimate and the median of market expectations (increases of 0.01% and 0.03%, respectively). Core inflation items, such as food consumed away from home and household appliances, were behind the deviation of our forecast.

• Core inflation measures remain at comfortable levels. The core measure for underlying industrial prices and services (IPCA EX-3), for instance, advanced just 0.16%, while its year-over-year increase receded to 2.6%. 

• According to our estimates, the IPCA will rise 0.05% in October and push year-over-year inflation close to 2.5%. Today's report reinforces our understanding that inflation remains on a benign path, with all core measures running at comfortable levels, supported by the output gap and inflation itself – in the form of inertia or anchored expectations. 
 

Julia P. Araujo
 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 



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