Itaú BBA - IPCA ends 2018 with a 3.75% increase

Macro Brazil

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IPCA ends 2018 with a 3.75% increase

enero 11, 2019

For January, our preliminary estimate for the IPCA is a 0.42% increase

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

 

• The consumer price index IPCA rose 0.15% in December (after a 0,21% drop in the previous month), printing slightly above the median of market estimates (0.12%) but below our forecast (0.20%). Personal care items were behind the biggest deviation from our call, going up just 0.3% after plummeting 4.7% in November. With the latest reading, the IPCA ended the year with a 3.75% increase that is larger than the 2017 change (2.95%) but with plenty of room vs. the target set for the year (4.5%). Food and beverages (0.11 p.p.), apparel (0.06 p.p.), and healthcare and personal care (0.04 p.p.) provided the largest upward contributions during the month. On the opposite direction, transportation posted a noteworthy downward contribution (-0.10 p.p.), still reflecting falling fuel prices. Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in January is a 0.42% increase that would lift the year-over-year rate to 3.9%.

 

Elson Teles

 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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