Itaú BBA - IPCA climbed 0.43% in February, close to our estimate

Macro Brazil

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IPCA climbed 0.43% in February, close to our estimate

marzo 12, 2019

Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in March is a 0.51% increase

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

• The consumer price index IPCA climbed 0.43% in February, printing close to our estimate and the highest of market expectations (both at 0.42%) The median forecast was 0.38%. The index rose 0.32% in January and is up 0.75% year-to-date. In February 2018, the IPCA increased 0.32%. Its year-over-year change accelerated to 3.89% from 3.78%. Food and beverages (0.19 p.p.) and education (0.17 p.p.) provided the biggest upward contributions during the month, while transportation and apparel provided negative contributions (-0.06 p.p. and -0.02 p.p., respectively). Gasoline was behind the biggest deviation from our call, as prices fell less than anticipated, although the move was offset by costs for food consumed away from home, which declined 0.04% during the month and printed below our estimate. Our preliminary forecast for the IPCA in March is 0.51%, with the year-over-year change picking up to 4.33%. For the full year, we expect the IPCA to advance 3.6%. 
 

Julia Araujo
Economist

 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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