Itaú BBA - IPCA-15 rises 0.19% and prints below expectations in November

Macro Brazil

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IPCA-15 rises 0.19% and prints below expectations in November

noviembre 23, 2018

Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in November is a drop of 0.05%


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 

The mid-month consumer price index IPCA-15 rose 0.19% in November, printing below our estimate (0.27%) and the median of market expectations (0.24%). The biggest deviation from our call was caused by market-set prices in the industrial segment. The IPCA-15 climbed 0.58% in October and 0.32% in November 2017. Year-to-date inflation reached 4.03%, while the year-over-year change slowed to 4.39% from 4.53% in the previous month. Food and beverages (0.13 p.p.) provided the largest upward contribution during the month, followed by transportation (0.06 p.p.) and personal expenses (0.04 p.p.). On the other hand, healthcare and personal care (-0.04 p.p.), and housing (-0.02 p.p.) provided negative contributions. Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in November is a drop of 0.05%, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 4.2%. For the full year, our estimate for the IPCA is 3.9%.  

Elson Teles
Economist


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file 



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