Itaú BBA - IPCA-15 rises 0.09% in September and year-over-year change remains at 3.22%

Macro Brazil

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IPCA-15 rises 0.09% in September and year-over-year change remains at 3.22%

septiembre 24, 2019

IPCA-15 rises 0.09% in September. Core measures remain on a benign path


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

• The mid-month consumer price index IPCA-15 rose 0.09% in September, printing close to our estimate (0.07%) and market expectations (0.08%). Lower-than-expected deflation in food prices was behind the deviation from our call, although the move was partially offset by falling costs for household items. 

• Core inflation measures remain at comfortable levels. The core measure for underlying industrial prices and services (IPCA EX-3), for instance, went up 0.23%, in line with our estimate, and its year-over-year increase was virtually stable at 2.8%. 

• Our estimates for the headline IPCA are 0.04% in September, 0.06% in October, and 0.23% in November. Today's report reinforces our view that inflation remains on a benign path, with all core measures running at comfortable levels. The output gap and inflation itself, in the form of inertia or anchored expectations, support this scenario. Our full-year estimates for the IPCA are 3.4% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020. 
 

Julia P. Araujo
 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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