Itaú BBA - IPCA-15 moves 0.02% in March and 3.67% yoy

Macro Brazil

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IPCA-15 moves 0.02% in March and 3.67% yoy

marzo 25, 2020

IPCA-15 increases 0.02% in March. We forecast a 0.07% increase for the CPI at the end of this month.


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

 

 The mid-month consumer price index IPCA-15 rose slightly by 0.02% in March, printing close to our estimate (0.04%) and the median of market expectations (0.06%). There were noteworthy price drops for auto fuels (-1.2%) and airfares (-16.9%).

 Core inflation measures remain at comfortable levels. Underlying services posted slight deflation of 0.01% in today’s report, bringing the year-over-year change to 3.2%. The average of year-over-year core inflation measures continues to hover around 3%.

 The next IPCA readings will likely stay low. According to our forecasts, the headline IPCA will go up 0.07% in March and 0.09% in April and should post 0.10% deflation in May. For the full year, our estimates for the IPCA are 2.9% in 2020 and 3.3% in 2021.

 

Julia Passabom


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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