Itaú BBA - IPCA-15 moves -0.01% in April and is up by 2.92% yoy

Macro Brazil

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IPCA-15 moves -0.01% in April and is up by 2.92% yoy

abril 28, 2020

IPCA-15 falls -0.01% in April with core inflation measures lower than expected


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

 

 The mid-month consumer price index IPCA-15 moved -0.01% in April, printing below our estimate (0.12%) and close to the median of market expectations (0.01%). The drop in fuel prices (-5.8%) was worthy of note, as were the hikes in food costs (3.1%) and airfares (14.8%). Importantly, data in today’s report were gathered nearly totally by non-face-to-face means (websites, phone calls or email).

 Core inflation measures remain low and are slowing down at the margin. Underlying service inflation went up slightly by 0.18% in today’s report, while underlying industrial items fell 0.62%. The average of year-over-year core inflation measures receded to 2.5% from 3.0%. 

 The next readings for the headline IPCA index will likely stay low. We expect deflation of 0.22% in April and 0.38% in May.

 

Julia Passabom


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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