Itaú BBA - IPCA-15 climbs 0.71% in January and 4.34% yoy

Macro Brazil

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IPCA-15 climbs 0.71% in January and 4.34% yoy

enero 23, 2020

IPCA-15 increases 0.71% in January. We forecast a 0.29% increase for the CPI at the end of this month.


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

 The mid-month consumer price index IPCA-15 rose 0.71% in January, printing slightly above our estimate (0.64%) and close to the median of market expectations (0.70%). Notably, the change in beef prices slowed to 4.5% from 18.6% in the December IPCA.

 The core measure for underlying services went up 0.78%, more than we expected, led by rent, building maintenance fees and meals away from home. Its year-over-year increase accelerated to 3.7% from 3.4% in 2019.

 Our forecasts for the headline IPCA are 0.29% in January and 0.22% in February. The next two reports will get relief from food prices, especially beef, set to experience deflation in January. Importantly, the next IPCA release will begin to incorporate the new weighting structure of the 2017-18 Household Budget Survey (POF).

 Our full-year estimate for the IPCA is 3.3%.
 

Julia Passabom


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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