Itaú BBA - Industrial production receded 18.8% seasonally-adjusted in April

Macro Brazil

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Industrial production receded 18.8% seasonally-adjusted in April

junio 3, 2020

Important differences within sectors


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

 Industrial production declined 18.8% mom/sa in April, better than our estimate (-25.0%) and the median of market expectations (-28.3%). The range of market forecasts was much wider than usual, ranging from -7.5% to -45.5%.

 As we expected, some industrial sectors are not suffering much in this crisis and acted as a buffer for the headline result.

 Preliminary data indicate that industrial production has hit a low in April, and started a small recovery in May, although still at depressed levels. We forecast GDP to decline 10.6% qoq/sa in Q2 and see a recovery from Q3 onwards.
 

Luka Machado Barbosa
Matheus Felipe Fuck


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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