Itaú BBA - Industrial production increases 0.9% mom/sa in January

Macro Brazil

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Industrial production increases 0.9% mom/sa in January

marzo 10, 2020

Capital goods production was the main positive highlight.


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

 

 In January, industrial production expanded 0.9% mom/sa (Itaú: +0.8%; market: +0.6%) while falling 0.9% yoy (Itaú and market: -1.0%).

 In terms of major economic categories, capital goods production stood out by advancing 12.6% during the month after a 12.3% drop in December. Hence, our monthly investment proxy rose 2.1% mom/sa in January.

 Data for 1Q20 suggest a slowdown whose intensity is still uncertain. However, we expect economic activity to sustain a moderate acceleration trend driven by expanding private credit, which affects consumer spending and investment.

 The downside risk to this scenario is a weaker-than-expected performance of the global economy due to the new coronavirus epidemic.


 

Luka Machado Barbosa
Matheus Felipe Fuck


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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