Itaú BBA - Industrial production drops 0.7% mom/sa in December

Macro Brazil

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Industrial production drops 0.7% mom/sa in December

febrero 4, 2020

Investment-related components cool down in December


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

 

 In December, industrial production dropped 0.7% mom/sa, below market expectations (-0.5%) and our call (-0.2%). Manufacturing and extraction/mining activity both declined during the month (-0.6% and -1.4%, respectively).

 Among the main categories, capital goods production stood out by falling 8.8% vs. the previous month. Our monthly investment proxy ended 4Q19 with a drop of 2.6% qoq/sa.

 Our GDP tracking gauge for 4Q19 receded to +0.6% qoq/sa (from +0.7%), with consumption expanding 1.4% and investment declining 2.0%.

 Weaker data in November and December imply a negative statistical carryover into 1Q20, reinforcing our view that the year began with slower GDP growth.
 

Luka Barbosa
Matheus Felipe Fuck


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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