Itaú BBA - Industrial production declines in June

Macro Brazil

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Industrial production declines in June

agosto 1, 2019

Weakness in investment-related components


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

• In June, industrial production receded 0.6% mom/sa, printing between our forecast (-0.7%) and the median of market expectations (-0.5%).

• Manufacturing declined 0.7%, while mining/extraction advanced 1.4%. In recent months, the trend in manufacturing has been virtually stable, and mining/extraction displayed some recovery after the strong decline of recent months.

• The two components closely related to investment — capital goods and construction material — registered losses in June and show no signs of recovery.

• Today's report continues to reflect the slow pace of recovery in economic activity in Brazil. Our GDP forecasts are 0.5% in 2Q19, 0.0% in 3Q19 (seasonally-adjusted quarterly change) and 0.8% for the full year.
 

Luka Machado Barbosa
Alexandre Gomes da Cunha

Matheus Felipe Fuck


 

For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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