Itaú BBA - Imported oil-drilling rigs lead to $1.7 billion trade deficit in January

Macro Brazil

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Imported oil-drilling rigs lead to $1.7 billion trade deficit in January

febrero 3, 2020

Capital goods imports were inflated by transactions involving oil-drilling rigs in the final week of the month


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

 The trade balance in January was negative by $1.7 billion, disappointing our forecast ($500 million surplus) and market estimates ($300 million surplus). Larger-than-expected imports were behind the surprise, following transactions involving oil-drilling rigs in the final week of the month. 

 The balance resulted from $14.4 billion exports and $16.2 billion imports and is weaker than the $1.7 billion surplus posted one year earlier. The annualized seasonally adjusted quarterly moving average for the trade balance receded to $40.1 billion from $48.8 billion.

 We forecast the 2020 trade surplus at $40 billion, in line with the economic rebound and consequent increase in imports.
 

Julia Gottlieb
Thales Caramella


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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