Itaú BBA - GDP expands 0.5% qoq/sa in 4Q19

Macro Brazil

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GDP expands 0.5% qoq/sa in 4Q19

marzo 4, 2020

Consumer spending and investment on the rise, exports and government spending decline in 2019


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

 In 4Q19, GDP advanced 0.5% qoq/sa and 1.7% yoy, printing in line with our forecast and market expectations.

 In 2019, GDP growth was 1.1%. Consumer spending rose 1.8% and investment climbed 2.2%, while government spending and exports declined 0.4% and 2.5%, respectively.

 The 1Q20 data suggests deceleration, with still uncertain intensity. Nevertheless, we believe that economic activity will sustain a moderate acceleration trend driven by expanding private credit, which affects consumption and investment.

 The downside risk to this scenario is the weaker performance of the global economy due to the new coronavirus epidemic. 
 

Luka Machado Barbosa
Matheus Felipe Fuck


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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