Itaú BBA - Falling participation rate prevents steeper grow in unemployment

Macro Brazil

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Falling participation rate prevents steeper grow in unemployment

mayo 28, 2020

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reaches 12.1% in April.


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

 

 The unemployment rate reached 12.6% in April, printing below market expectations (13.3%) and our forecast (13.9%) due to a sharp decline in the participation rate (to 59.1% from 61.0%, seasonally adjusted).

 The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 12.1% from 11.6%. If the participation rate remained constant at the February level, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate would have reached 16.0%.

 Formal employment fell by 836 thousand in April, seasonally adjusted – close to the CAGED report’s figure released yesterday by the Ministry of Economy – while the number of people informally employed was reduced by 2.3 million.
 

Luka Machado Barbosa
Matheus Felipe Fuck


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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