Itaú BBA - Data revision yields higher trade surplus

Macro Brazil

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Data revision yields higher trade surplus

diciembre 2, 2019

The significant revision in exports shows a still-high trade surplus, albeit lower than in 2018


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

 The trade surplus in November reached $3.4 billion, matching our forecast and market consensus, but was lower than one year earlier ($4.1 billion).

 The September and October surpluses were revised sharply upward. 

 The seasonally-adjusted annualized quarterly moving average rose to $47 billion from $46 billion in October. The surplus over 12 months was virtually stable at $47.7 billion.

 The significant revision in exports shows a still-high trade surplus, albeit lower than in 2018 ($58 billion surplus).

 Importantly, the Brazilian Central Bank is set to revise current account statistics for September and October, as the primary source of balance of payments data is the Development, Industry and Trade Ministry (MDIC).
 

Julia Gottlieb
Thales Caramella


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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