Itaú BBA - Another monthly surplus in the current account

Macro Brazil

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Another monthly surplus in the current account

junio 24, 2020

Continuing declines in the current account deficit are expected in the coming months.


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

 

 The current account posted a surplus of $1.3 billion in May 2020, below our estimate and market consensus (both at $1.9 billion). The main surprise vs. our forecast was the service account (equipment rentals and other services).   

 This was the third consecutive monthly surplus in the current account. 

 The current account deficit over 12 months narrowed to $42.4 billion or 2.5% of GDP (from $45.2 billion or 2.6% of GDP in April).

 Slower economic activity, a weaker exchange rate and social isolation have been impacting the current account, with significant declines in deficits related to international travel, and profits and dividends.

 Continuing declines in the current account deficit are expected in the coming months. We forecast a near-zero balance in the next few years.


Julia Gottlieb
Thales Caramella


For the version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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